Fall Fiscal and Economic Update 2019
This update covers the fiscal and economic status for December 11, 2019, including budget variances, oil prices, exchange rates, financial indicators, economic forecasts, and major project timelines in NL. It provides valuable insights into the financial landscape during the specified period.
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Presentation Transcript
Fall Fiscal and Economic Update December 11, 2019
Fiscal Update 2019-20 Budget Update Variance Revenue 10,349.8 9,957.0 (392.8) Expenses 8,425.4 8,401.3 24.1 Surplus ($M) 1,924.4 1,555.7 (368.7) 2
Average Oil Price 2019-20 Fiscal Year 2019-20 85.00 80.00 75.00 70.00 $ US Per Barrel Brent Daily $US 66.44 Budget 2019 ($US 65.00) 65.00 Brent YTD Avg $US 64.43 60.00 55.00 50.00 45.00 07-Aug-19 15-Aug-19 23-Aug-19 31-Aug-19 08-Sep-19 16-Sep-19 24-Sep-19 02-Oct-19 10-Oct-19 18-Oct-19 26-Oct-19 01-Apr-19 09-Apr-19 17-Apr-19 25-Apr-19 03-May-19 11-May-19 19-May-19 27-May-19 06-Jul-19 14-Jul-19 22-Jul-19 30-Jul-19 04-Jun-19 12-Jun-19 20-Jun-19 28-Jun-19 06-Jan-20 14-Jan-20 22-Jan-20 30-Jan-20 07-Feb-20 15-Feb-20 23-Feb-20 03-Nov-19 11-Nov-19 19-Nov-19 27-Nov-19 05-Dec-19 13-Dec-19 21-Dec-19 29-Dec-19 02-Mar-20 10-Mar-20 18-Mar-20 26-Mar-20 $ US Prices Data to December 9 3
Oil Price and Exchange Rate Budget 2019 Fall Update 2019 Average Oil Price 2018-19 $US US $65.00 CDN $84.94 0.77 US $63.00 CDN $83.22 0.76 $CDN Exchange Rate (USD/CAD) December 2019 to March 2020 Oil Price ($US). Every +/-$1.00 change impacts revenue +/-$7.7 million Exchange Rate (USD/CAD). Every +/-1 cent change impacts revenue +/- $6.2 million 4
Other Key 2019-20 Financial Indicators Budget 2019 Fall Update 2019 Borrowing Requirement $1.2B $1.2B Net Debt $13.77B $13.95B 5
Economic Forecast Indicators Percent Change Unless Otherwise Indicated 2020 Economic Forecast 2019 Budget 2019 Fall Update Real Gross Domestic Product 4.1 3.1 2.6 Compensation of Employees 3.9 3.9 1.3 Retail Sales 0.9 -1.6 1.7 Consumer Price Index 1.5 1.2 1.8 Housing Starts (units) 1,117 826 914 Capital Investment ($B) 11.3 9.4 9.8 Population (000s) 524.3 521.5 520.8 Unemployment Rate (%) 13.1 11.8 12.1 Participation Rate (%) 59.2 58.4 58.3 6
NL Major Project Timelines $Billions $16.0 13.8 $14.0 Total Capital Investment Including Major Projects $12.0 9.4 $10.0 $8.0 Bay du Nord: $6.8B $6.0 5.3 West White Rose: $3.2B Muskrat Falls: $10.1B $4.0 Hebron: $14B $2.0 Long Harbour: $4.25B Voisey s Bay Underground Mine: $2B $0.0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 7 Source: Statistics Canada; NL Department of Finance
Fall Update 2019 THANK YOU 8
