Fresh Mushroom Sales Trends Analysis
The report covers the four weeks ending May 21, 2023, reflecting updated supercenter UPCs. It includes dollar and unit sales trends for fresh mushrooms, discussing how sales have trended below previous years. The data also covers the volume (pound) sales trend and the contribution of mushrooms to the department and category.
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Presentation Transcript
Period ending May 21, 2023
Methodology The report covers the four weeks ending 21 May, 2023 with week endings: April 30, 2023 May 7, 2023 May 14, 2023 May 21, 2023 This data reflects the updated supercenter UPCs that were coded incorrectly previously. Dollar references are the retail value, volume is reflected in pounds Data is based on the Circana total multi-outlet universe, which includes supermarkets, supercenters, club, commissaries, etc. It excludes specialty stores (Whole Foods, Sprouts, etc.) Package size is the last tab left that is derived from SKU analysis. This means Walmart private brand, H-E-B, Hy-Vee and others are not included, which causes the gap between total market and SKU-level data Source: Circana, Integrated Fresh, MULO, 4 weeks ending 5/21/2023 2
Four-year dollar sales trend Sales trended below year ago levels in the shorter- and longer-term views Fresh mushrooms dollar sales four w.e. 5/21/2023 Fresh mushrooms dollar sales latest 52 w.e. 5/21/2023 $1.4B $1.3B $118.9M $1.3B $1.2B $100.9M $96.9M $95.2M 3YA 2YA YA 4 w.e. 5/21/23 3YA 2YA YA 52 w.e. 5/21/23 Source: Circana, Integrated Fresh, MULO, 4 weeks and 52 w.e. 5/21/2023 versus same periods the past four years 3
Four-year unit sales trend Unit sales were below 2020 levels in the quad week and 52 w.e. views Fresh mushrooms unit sales four w.e. 5/21/2023 Fresh mushrooms unit sales latest 52 w.e. 5/21/2023 44,344,775 518,464,287 480,927,710 466,064,688 37,341,863 433,518,438 34,060,858 32,892,161 3YA 2YA YA 4 w.e. 5/21/23 3YA 2YA YA 52 w.e. 5/21/2023 Source: Circana, Integrated Fresh, MULO, 4 weeks and 52 w.e. ending 5/21/2023 versus same periods the past four years 4
Four-year volume (pound) sales trend In the YTD and the quad-week view, pounds dipped below pre-pandemic levels Fresh mushrooms volume sales latest 52 w.e. 5/21/2023 Fresh mushrooms volume sales four w.e. 5/21/2023 27,958,460 327,217,713 297,542,033 23,616,947 293,381,736 273,017,021 21,298,746 20,678,592 3YA 2YA YA 4 w.e. 5/21/23 3YA 2YA YA 52 w.e. 5/21/23 Source: Circana, Integrated Fresh, MULO, 4 weeks and 52 w.e. ending 5/21/2023 versus same periods the past four years 5
Mushroom contribution to the department and category The mushroom share of total produce and vegetables remains below average but is holding stable in the past few months 4 w.e. 5/21/2023 Mushroom $ share Share of total produce Share of total vegetables L-52 w.e. 5/21/2023 Mushroom $ share Share of total produce Share of total vegetables 3YA 2.0% 4.0% 3YA 1.9% 3.8% 2YA 1.8% 3.7% 2YA 2.0% 3.9% YA 1.6% 3.5% YA 1.8% 3.6% 4 w.e. 5/21/2023 1.6% 3.3% 52 w.e. 5/21/2023 1.7% 3.4% Source: Circana, Integrated Fresh, MULO, 4 weeks and 52 w.e. ending 5/21/2023 6
Mushrooms price per unit Price increases for mushrooms were above those of total produce but below total vegetables. This is due to substantial deflation in fruit. 4 w.e. 5/21/2023 Average price/unit Total produce Total vegetables Mushrooms 3YA $2.27 $2.00 $2.68 2YA $2.41 $2.07 $2.70 YA $2.63 $2.25 $2.84 4 w.e. 5/21/2023 $2.64 | +0.2% $2.32 | +3.0% $2.90 | +1.8% Source: Circana, Integrated Fresh, MULO, YTD weeks ending 5/21/2023 7
Mushroom price per volume (pound) On a pound basis, mushroom inflation was also ahead of total produce but behind vegetables. 4 w.e. 5/21/2023 Average price/pound Total produce Total vegetables Mushrooms 2020 $1.55 $1.75 $4.25 2021 $1.71 $1.87 $4.27 2022 $1.87 $2.02 $4.55 2023 $1.88 | +0.2% $2.08 | +2.9% $4.61 | +1.3% Source: Circana, Integrated Fresh, MULO, YTD weeks ending 5/21/2023 8
Price per volume by quarter/month The rate of inflation on a per pound basis accelerated after coming down in Q3 and Q4 Mushrooms price per pound and change vs. YA (fixed and random weight) $4.80 9.0% $4.60 $4.68 $4.71 $4.69 7.9%8.4% $4.70 $4.63 $4.61 8.0% $4.60 7.0% $4.48 $4.50 6.9% $4.40 6.0% $4.40 $4.32 5.0% $4.23$4.25$4.27 $4.27 $4.30 $4.19$4.25 4.9% 4.9% 4.0% $4.20 $4.13 3.5% 3.0% $4.10 3.1% 2.0% 2.5% $4.00 2.3% 2.3% 2.1% 2.1% 1.9% 1.8% 1.0% $3.90 1.3% 0.4% Q2 21 $3.80 0.0% Q3 21 Q3 22 Q3 20 2019 Q1 21 Q1 22 Q1 23 Q4 20 Q4 21 Q4 22 Q1 20 4 we 4/23/23 Q2 22 Q2 20 4 we 5/21/23 Source: Circana, Integrated Fresh, MULO, 2019-w.e. 5/21/2023 9
Price per volume and unit by type 4 w.e.5/21/2023 Price per pound % change vs. 22 % change vs. 21 Total mushrooms $4.61 +1.3% +7.8% White mushrooms $4.00 +0.5% +6.3% Brown mushrooms $5.13 +1.8% +10.3% Specialty mushrooms $13.68 +2.6% +13.5% 4 w.e. 5/21/2023 Price per unit % change vs. 22 % change vs. 21 Total mushrooms $2.90 +1.8% +7.2% White mushrooms $2.58 +0.6% +5.0% Brown mushrooms $3.22 +3.2% +10.0% Specialty mushrooms $4.67 +1.5% +12.9% Brown mushrooms include crimini and portabella Specialty mushrooms include shiitake, oyster, enoki, chanterelle, morel, wood ear, porcini, black forest and other Source: Circana, Integrated Fresh, MULO, 4 w.e. 5/21/2023 10
Mushroom dollar, unit, volume sales Double-digit pressure for a number of years 4 w.e. 5/21/2023 dollars $95.2M -1.7% -3.4% -2.9% Dollar Unit Volume growth vs. YA growth vs. YA growth vs. YA volume (lbs) 20.7M -5.6% vs. 21 -19.9% vs. 20 -12.4% vs. 21 -26.0% vs. 20 -11.9% vs. 21 -25.8% vs. 20 Source: Circana, Integrated Fresh, MULO, 4 weeks ending 5/21/2023 11
Vegetables and mushroom dollar sales vs. YA and 3YA Now going up against the April 2020 spikes, sales drop behind the 3YA levels Dollar sales versus year ago and three years ago Fresh vegetables vs YA Fresh vegetables vs. 3YA Fresh mushrooms vs. YA Fresh mushrooms vs. 3YA 23.3% 20.0% 19.2% 16.2% 13.4% 13.4% 13.6% 10.7% 11.2% 10.8% 10.6% 7.7% 15.1% 7.1% 5.6% 4.3% 4.0% 3.9% 1.7% -1.9% 4 we 4/23/23 4 we 5/21/23 2.1% -1.7% 0.1% 0.5% -0.8% -1.3% -1.4% - 0.6% 2019 2020 2021 Q1 '22 Q2 '22 Q3 '22 Q4 '22 Q1 '23 -3.2% -4.8% -3.8% -5.5% -5.8% -16.5% -19.9% Source: Circana, Integrated Fresh, MULO, 2019-w.e. 5/21/2023 12
Vegetables and mushroom pound sales vs. YA and 2019 Vs. 3YA levels shows just how high the pandemic spikes were Volume (pound) sales versus year ago and three years ago Fresh vegetables vs YA Fresh vegetables vs. 3YA Fresh mushrooms vs. YA Fresh mushrooms vs. 3YA 17.0% 13.4% 8.5% 15.1% 5.9% 4.3% 3.0% 2.0% -0.4% 1.0% 0.4% -1.6% -0.4% -1.0% -1.4% -0.8% -1.8% Q3 '22 -2.1% Q1 '23 -2.3% Q4 '22 2019 2020 2021 Q1 '22 Q2 '22 4 we 4/23/23 4 we 5/21/23 -3.1% -2.9% -4.1% -3.9% -5.4% -6.3% -5.9% -7.3% -8.3% -11.3% -8.9% -10.2% -10.2% -19.9% -18.5% -23.7% -26.0% Source: Circana, Integrated Fresh, MULO, 2019-w.e. 5/21/2023 13
Share of dollars sold on merchandising While still low, at 18%, more dollars were sold on promotion Fresh mushrooms 4 w.e. Vs. Latest 52 w.e. 5/21/2023 Vs. 5/21/2023 2022 2022 Share of dollars sold on promotion 18.1% +13.7% 16.2% +9.7% * Any merchandising, including feature, display, feature & display and temporary price reductions Source: Circana, Integrated Fresh, MULO, YTD through weeks ending 5/21/2023 14
Base and incremental sales Volume incrementality increased slightly in the latest 4 weeks Dollar sales w.e. 5/21/2023 Volume sales w.e. 5/21/2023 Base Incremental Base Incremental $1,400,000,000 300,000,000 3.2% incremental 6.5% incremental $1,200,000,000 250,000,000 $1,000,000,000 200,000,000 $800,000,000 150,000,000 $600,000,000 100,000,000 $400,000,000 3.8% incremental 8.2% incremental 50,000,000 $200,000,000 $0 0 L-52 we 5/21/23 4 we 5/21/23 L-52 we 5/21/23 4 we 5/21/23 Source: Circana, Integrated Fresh, MULO, 4 weeks ending 5/21/2023 15
Over indexing versus under indexing regions The Mid-South and West regions had a strong 5/21 performance Use as comparison to understand importance/size of mushrooms L-52 w.e. 5/21/2023 Share of veg. $ Share of mushrooms $ $ sales WEST PLAINS growth vs. YA GREAT LAKES Total US California Great Lakes Mid-South Northeast Plains South Central Southeast West 100.0% 11.4% 13.2% 13.2% 18.0% 6.6% 9.1% 15.6% 12.8% 100.0% 12.4% 15.1% 11.9% 17.9% 6.3% 7.3% 13.6% 15.5% -1.1% -1.2% -1.1% +0.4% -3.1% -2.3% -2.0% -1.0% +1.0% NORTHEAST MID SOUTH CALIFORNIA SOUTHEAST SOUTH CENTRAL = Above-average share = Above-average performance Source: Circana, Integrated Fresh, MULO, YTD through 5/21/2023 | Total fresh vegetables and total fresh mushrooms 16
Performance summary whites, browns and exotics Brown (combination of crimini and ports) continues to pull away from whites Dollar share $ sales vs. 2022 $ sales vs. 2020 Volume (lbs) Lbs Lbs Lbs vs. 2020 4 weeks ending 5/21/2023 Dollars share vs. 2022 $95.2M 100.0% -1.7% -19.9% 20.7M 100.0% -2.9% -26.0% Total fresh mushrooms $50.2M 53.2% -2.7% -24.9% 12.5M 60.8% -3.1% -28.6% White mushrooms $39.8M 41.4% -0.9% -13.8% 7.8M 37.4% -2.6% -21.6% Brown mushrooms $5.3M 5.4% +1.6% -12.4% 0.4M 1.8% -1.0% -23.8% Specialty mushrooms Source: Circana, Integrated Fresh, MULO, 4 weeks ending 5/21/2023 17
White button mushrooms dollar performance Dollars L-52 w.e. 5/21/2023 $674.2M White button mushroom, $ and % vs YA (fixed and random weight) 15.0% $250,000,000 10.0% $191M $182M $200,000,000 $175M $176M $173M $169M $168M 5.0% $158M $158M 4.6% -2.6% vs. YA $150,000,000 0.0% -2.7% -2.7% -3.0% -6.7% -2.0% -3.2% -5.0% -3.4% $100,000,000 -6.3% -10.0% $50.2M $51.7M Average price/unit $2.66 $50,000,000 -10.8% -15.0% -16.4% -20.0% $0 Q2 22 Q2 21 Q3 22 Q3 21 Q4 21 4 WE 5/21/23 4 WE 4/23/23 Q4 22 Q1 23 Q1 22 Q1 21 +5.4% vs. YA Source: Circana, Integrated Fresh, MULO, 2021 plus 4 weeks ending 5/21/2023 18
White button mushrooms volume performance Pounds L-52 w.e. 5/21/2023 164.3M White button mushroom, lbs and % vs YA (fixed and random weight) 15.0% 60,000,000 50.7M 3.5% 10.0% 46.0M 45.1M 44.4M 50,000,000 42.9M 5.0% 42.4M 41.4M 41.6M 38.5M -3.1% 0.0% -4.5% 40,000,000 -7.7% vs YA -7.1% -7.5% -5.0% -9.6% -9.8% -9.9% -11.0% -15.7%-12.2% 30,000,000 -10.0% -15.0% 20,000,000 12.8M 12.5M -20.0% Average price/pound $4.10 10,000,000 -25.0% -30.0% - Q2 21 Q2 22 4 WE 5/21/23 Q1 22 Q1 23 Q1 21 Q4 21 Q4 22 4 WE 4/23/23 Q3 21 Q3 22 +5.6% vs. YA Source: Circana, Integrated Fresh, MULO, 2021 plus 4 weeks ending 5/21/2023 19
Crimini mushrooms dollar performance Dollars L-52 w.e. 5/21/2023 $426.4M Crimini mushroom, $ and % vs YA (fixed and random weight) 20.0% $140,000,000 15.6% $113M 11.1% $116M 15.0% $110M $97M 7.7% $120,000,000 $108M $98.5M $97M 7.7% $95.8M 6.5% 10.0% 6.2% $100,000,000 $89.2M 5.0% 1.4% +7.7% vs. YA $80,000,000 -3.1% 0.0% -5.8% $60,000,000 -6.7% -5.0% $33.3M $32.3M $40,000,000 -10.0% Average price/unit $3.23 -9.1% -15.0% $20,000,000 -20.0% $0 Q2 22 4 WE 5/21/23 Q2 21 Q1 21 Q1 23 Q1 22 Q4 21 Q4 22 Q3 21 Q3 22 4 WE 4/23/23 +7.1% vs. YA Source: Circana, Integrated Fresh, MULO, 2021 plus 4 weeks ending 5/21/2023 20
Crimini mushrooms volume performance Pounds L-52 w.e. 5/21/2023 87.0M Crimini mushroom, lbs and % vs YA (fixed and random weight) 20.0% 30,000,000 25.3M 15.0% 23.6M 23.5M 22.8M 15.4% 22.0M 25,000,000 21.9M 10.0% 20.1M 19.9M 20.2M 4.5% 3.9% 20,000,000 2.3% 5.0% -0.2% vs. YA 0.8% -2.0% 0.0% 15,000,000 -5.0% 10,000,000 6.8M 6.6M -7.8% -10.0% -8.3% -8.9% -8.5% Average price/pound $4.90 -8.3% 5,000,000 -15.0% -20.0% - Q1 21 Q4 22 Q4 21 Q1 23 Q1 22 Q2 21 Q2 22 4 WE 5/21/23 Q3 22 4 WE 4/23/23 Q3 21 +7.9% vs. YA Source: Circana, Integrated Fresh, MULO, 2021 plus 4 weeks ending 5/21/2023 21
OTHER INSIGHTS Packaged (fixed weight) versus random weight Package-size analysis Organic versus conventional Value-added versus whole/uncut 22
Package size analysis 8 and 16 ounces drive the bulk of sales; 8 ounce had another strong performance Package size (per UPC) lbs vs. YA lbs vs. 2YA Dollars $ vs. YA $ vs. 2YA Pounds 8 OZ $50.2M -2.9% -4.4% 10.4M -3.7% -14.5% 16 OZ $18.4M +1.3% -6.6% 4.9M -3.1% -9.4% Source: Circana, Integrated Fresh, MULO, 4 weeks ending 5/21/2023 23
Packaged (fixed weight) versus random weight While both down, fixed weight did better than random weight 4 W.E. 5/21/2023 | Share of total mushroom sales and sales growth % Fixed weight Random weight Dollar growth -1.3% -9.2% Share of mushroom $ sales 95.7% 4.3% Volume growth -2.8% -6.7% Share of mushroom lbs sales 96.4% 3.6% Source: Circana, Integrated Fresh, MULO, 4 weeks ending 5/21/2023 24
Organic versus conventional mushrooms sales Organic sales outperform conventional 4 w.e. 5/21/2023 | Share of total mushroom sales and sales growth % Unit growth -4.3% Volume growth -3.5% Market size $82.6M $ growth -2.6% Conventional Unit growth +3.5% Volume growth +2.8% Market size $12.1M $ growth +4.6% Organic 10.4% of pound sales Source: Circana, Integrated Fresh, MULO, 4 weeks ending 5/21/2023 compared with year ago 25
Cut/prepared versus whole mushrooms No preparation (whole) had the better performance 4 w.e. 5/21/2023 | Share of total mushroom sales and sales growth % Unit growth -0.2% Volume growth 0.0% Market size $46.9M $ growth +1.2% No preparation Unit growth -6.3% Volume growth -5.9% Market size $M $ growth -4.4% Cut/Sliced 47.9% of lbs sales Source: Circana, Integrated Fresh, MULO, 4 weeks ending 5/21/2023 compared with year ago 26
