Fuel Limitation & Forced Outages in Winter SARA Report Analysis
Explore the analysis of fuel limitation and forced outages during winter based on recent data, including methodologies, scenarios, and units vulnerable to fuel limitations. Discover insights for optimized resource management during extreme peak loads.
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Fuel Limitation Forced Outages for Winter SARA Report Fred Khodabakhsh November, 2020
Introduction: The fuel limitation adders in winter SARA report were based on 2014 outage scheduler data, time to revisit based on more recent information Methodology Overview: The resources analyzed are the same ones used for the 2014 winter analysis The fuel limitation outages are based on the more recent cold weather events from 2014 through winter 2019 The adders apply to the SARA extreme peak load scenario Analysis was based on the Outage Scheduler s nature of work field, focusing on Fuel Limitation/Lack of Fuel Availability 2 PUBLIC
Methodology Continue: For typical forced outage adder the north central weather zone temperature range from 25 to 30 degrees were used For extreme forced outage adder the Jan 17, 2018 winter cold snap was used which represented both the winter peak load and low winter temperatures Snap Shot of Scenarios Tab from Winter SARA Report Extreme Peak Load / Typical Generation Outages During Extreme Peak Load Extreme Peak Load / Extreme Generation Outages During Extreme Peak Load This Cell Include the Typical Generation Outage Adder for Fuel Limitation Forecasted Season Peak Load Forecasted Season Peak Load / Extreme Low Wind Output Seasonal Load Adjustment - 9,509 - 9,509 Typical Maintenance Outages, Thermal 4,074 4,074 4,074 4,074 Typical Forced Outages, Thermal 4,542 5,339 4,542 5,339 95th Percentile Forced Outages, Thermal - - - 4,540 This Cell Include the Extreme Generation Outage Adder for Fuel Limitation Low Wind Output Adjustment - - 5,279 - 3 PUBLIC
List of the units included in this analysis vulnerable to winter fuel limitation, North Central Zone resources most likely to have fuel limitation Pipeline Interconnect Fuel Oil Winter Capacity Capable (MW) Facilities At-Risk Owner/Operator County Handley U3, U4, U5 Mountain Creek U6, U7, U8 Wolf Hollow CCGT Lake Hubbard U1, U2 Trinidad U6 Stryker Creek U1, U2 Exelon Exelon Exelon Luminant Luminant Luminant Tarrant Dallas Hood Dallas Henderson McLennan Atmos/ETF Atmos/ETF Enterprise/Atmos Atmos ETF ETF/KM Y N N Y N N 1,265 808 791 907 226 669 4 PUBLIC
Fuel Limitation Forced Outage MWs and North Central Weather Zone Temperature Winter 2017/2018 2970MW Forced Outage due to Low Temperature 3500 90 80 3000 Forced Outage (MW) 70 North Zone Temp 2500 60 2000 50 40 1500 30 1000 20 500 10 0 0 1/4/18 2/12/18 12/1/17 12/2/17 12/4/17 12/6/17 12/7/17 12/9/17 1/2/18 1/5/18 1/7/18 1/9/18 1/11/18 1/12/18 1/14/18 1/16/18 1/17/18 1/19/18 1/21/18 1/22/18 1/24/18 1/26/18 1/28/18 1/29/18 1/31/18 2/2/18 2/3/18 2/5/18 2/7/18 2/9/18 2/10/18 2/14/18 2/15/18 2/17/18 2/19/18 2/21/18 2/22/18 2/24/18 2/26/18 2/27/18 12/11/17 12/12/17 12/14/17 12/16/17 12/18/17 12/19/17 12/21/17 12/23/17 12/24/17 12/26/17 12/28/17 12/30/17 12/31/17 Forced Outages (MW) North Central Zone Temp Winter 2018/2019 800 90 80 700 Forced Outage (MW) 70 600 North Zone Temp 60 500 50 400 40 300 30 200 20 100 10 0 0 1/2/19 1/4/19 1/5/19 1/7/19 1/9/19 2/2/19 2/3/19 2/5/19 2/7/19 2/9/19 12/1/18 12/2/18 12/4/18 12/6/18 12/7/18 12/9/18 12/11/18 12/12/18 12/14/18 12/16/18 12/18/18 12/19/18 12/21/18 12/23/18 12/24/18 12/26/18 12/28/18 12/30/18 12/31/18 1/11/19 1/12/19 1/14/19 1/16/19 1/17/19 1/19/19 1/21/19 1/22/19 1/24/19 1/26/19 1/28/19 1/29/19 1/31/19 2/10/19 2/12/19 2/14/19 2/15/19 2/17/19 2/19/19 2/21/19 2/22/19 2/24/19 2/26/19 2/27/19 Forced Outages (MW) North Central Zone Temp 5 PUBLIC
Fuel Limitation Forced Outage MWs and North Central Weather Zone Temperature Winter 2017/2018 2970MW Forced Outage due to Low Temperature 3500 90 80 3000 Forced Outage (MW) 70 North Zone Temp 2500 60 2000 50 40 1500 30 1000 20 500 10 0 0 1/4/18 2/12/18 12/1/17 12/2/17 12/4/17 12/6/17 12/7/17 12/9/17 1/2/18 1/5/18 1/7/18 1/9/18 1/11/18 1/12/18 1/14/18 1/16/18 1/17/18 1/19/18 1/21/18 1/22/18 1/24/18 1/26/18 1/28/18 1/29/18 1/31/18 2/2/18 2/3/18 2/5/18 2/7/18 2/9/18 2/10/18 2/14/18 2/15/18 2/17/18 2/19/18 2/21/18 2/22/18 2/24/18 2/26/18 2/27/18 12/11/17 12/12/17 12/14/17 12/16/17 12/18/17 12/19/17 12/21/17 12/23/17 12/24/17 12/26/17 12/28/17 12/30/17 12/31/17 Forced Outages (MW) North Central Zone Temp Winter 2018/2019 800 90 80 700 Forced Outage (MW) 70 600 North Zone Temp 60 500 50 400 40 300 30 200 20 100 10 0 0 1/2/19 1/4/19 1/5/19 1/7/19 1/9/19 2/2/19 2/3/19 2/5/19 2/7/19 2/9/19 12/1/18 12/2/18 12/4/18 12/6/18 12/7/18 12/9/18 12/11/18 12/12/18 12/14/18 12/16/18 12/18/18 12/19/18 12/21/18 12/23/18 12/24/18 12/26/18 12/28/18 12/30/18 12/31/18 1/11/19 1/12/19 1/14/19 1/16/19 1/17/19 1/19/19 1/21/19 1/22/19 1/24/19 1/26/19 1/28/19 1/29/19 1/31/19 2/10/19 2/12/19 2/14/19 2/15/19 2/17/19 2/19/19 2/21/19 2/22/19 2/24/19 2/26/19 2/27/19 Forced Outages (MW) North Central Zone Temp 6 PUBLIC
Jan 2018 Winter Cold Snap Forced Outage MW, Jan 2018 3500 80 ERCOT all time winter peak load of 65,750 MW 70 3000 (North Zone Temp) & (ERCOT Load (GW)) 60 2500 Forced Outage (MW) 50 2000 40 1500 30 1000 20 500 10 0 0 1/18/18 1/23/18 1/29/18 1/1/18 1/1/18 1/2/18 1/3/18 1/4/18 1/4/18 1/5/18 1/6/18 1/7/18 1/8/18 1/8/18 1/9/18 1/10/18 1/11/18 1/12/18 1/12/18 1/13/18 1/14/18 1/15/18 1/16/18 1/16/18 1/17/18 1/19/18 1/20/18 1/20/18 1/21/18 1/22/18 1/23/18 1/24/18 1/25/18 1/26/18 1/27/18 1/27/18 1/28/18 1/30/18 1/31/18 1/31/18 Forced Outages (MW) North Central Weather Zone Temp ERCOT Load (GW) 7 PUBLIC
Jan 2018 Winter Cold Snap Forced Outage MW, Jan 2018 3500 80 ERCOT all time winter peak load of 65,750 MW 70 3000 (North Zone Temp) & (ERCOT Load (GW)) 60 2500 Forced Outage (MW) 50 2000 40 1500 30 1000 20 500 10 0 0 1/18/18 1/23/18 1/29/18 1/1/18 1/1/18 1/2/18 1/3/18 1/4/18 1/4/18 1/5/18 1/6/18 1/7/18 1/8/18 1/8/18 1/9/18 1/10/18 1/11/18 1/12/18 1/12/18 1/13/18 1/14/18 1/15/18 1/16/18 1/16/18 1/17/18 1/19/18 1/20/18 1/20/18 1/21/18 1/22/18 1/23/18 1/24/18 1/25/18 1/26/18 1/27/18 1/27/18 1/28/18 1/30/18 1/31/18 1/31/18 Forced Outages (MW) North Central Weather Zone Temp ERCOT Load (GW) North Central Weather Zone Load (GW) 8 PUBLIC
Forced outage MW and North Central Weather Zone Temperature, sorted based on temperature from low to high 2014 to 2019 3500 100 90 3000 80 North weather Zone Temperature 2500 70 Forced Outage MW 60 2000 50 1500 40 30 1000 20 500 10 0 0 1/17/18 1/7/14 2/5/18 2/24/15 12/25/17 12/29/15 2/7/16 2/2/18 1/14/14 12/31/15 1/1/19 1/12/15 2/8/18 2/27/14 12/22/17 12/17/19 2/5/16 1/23/19 1/3/16 12/30/18 1/1/16 2/10/19 1/5/16 2/12/19 2/3/16 1/31/19 1/21/16 1/28/19 2/12/16 12/20/19 1/30/17 1/29/14 12/6/17 12/20/14 1/19/18 1/20/16 2/23/19 12/23/16 2/16/14 12/14/17 2/21/15 12/18/18 1/3/16 12/19/18 12/3/15 12/18/17 12/6/14 12/27/16 1/26/19 2/10/15 12/20/17 12/18/19 2/17/16 1/28/18 1/10/14 12/17/15 2/27/17 2/5/19 12/14/14 2/14/16 1/24/18 12/22/18 12/9/19 2/19/14 1/4/14 2/25/18 2/21/17 12/24/16 12/5/19 2/20/14 2/14/19 Forced Outage MW North Central Weather Zone Temp 9 PUBLIC
Monthly comparison of the forced outage, temperature and load 3500 70 (North Weather Zone Temp) and (ERCOT Daily Peak Load (GW)) 3000 60 2500 50 Forced Outage MW 2000 40 1500 30 1000 20 500 10 0 0 Forced Outage MW ERCOT Winter Daily Peak Load (GW) North Central Weather Zone Temp 10 PUBLIC
Monthly comparison of the forced outage, temperature and load 3500 70 (North Weather Zone Temp) and (ERCOT Daily Peak Load (GW)) 3000 60 2500 50 Forced Outage MW 2000 40 1500 30 1000 20 500 10 0 0 Forced Outage MW North Central Weather Zone Daily Peak Load (GW) North Central Weather Zone Temp 11 PUBLIC
Forced Outage MWs and ERCOT Winter Daily Peak Load (GW) 3500 70000 3000 60000 ERCOT Winter Daily Peak Load MW 2500 50000 Forced Outage MW 2000 40000 1500 30000 1000 20000 500 10000 0 0 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 Temperature Max Forced Outage MW Avg Forced Outage MW Min Forced Outage MW ERCOT Winter Daily Peak Load MW The average forced outage for the temperature range from 25 to 30 degree were used for the Typical Generation Outages During Extreme Peak Load scenario 12 PUBLIC
Calculation of the adder for typical generation outages during Extreme Peak Load scenario Average Forced outage MW Resources With Winter Fuel Limitation 1,123 1,014 893 1,058 665 748 North Central Weather Zone Temp 25 26 27 28 29 30 ERCOT Winter Daily Peak Load 63,383 52,337 63,383 52,337 52,337 52,337 Average 917 The 917 MW represent the adder for the typical fuel limitation forced outage for the Winter SARA extreme peak load scenario The average forced outages for the resources in the North Central Weather Zone region 13 PUBLIC
Calculation of the adder for extreme generation outages during Extreme Peak Load scenario North Central Weather Zone Temp 18 24 21 23 North Central Weather Zone Load 24,070 24,431 23,505 22,221 Date/Time 1/17/2018 07:00 Winter 1/17/2018 08:00 Winter 1/17/2018 09:00 Winter 1/17/2018 10:00 Winter Average Season Forced Outage MW ERCOT Load 64580 65750 64629 62744 2,395 2,395 2,057 2,018 2,216 The 2,216 MW represent the adder for the extreme forced outage for the Winter SARA extreme peak load scenario The average forced outages for the resources in the North Central Weather Zone region during Jan 2018 winter cold snap with high winter peak load North central zone resources listed in Outage Scheduler with fuel limitation/lack of fuel availability Nature of Work were excluded for the scenarios that included typical and extreme generation outages to avoid double-counting 14 PUBLIC
