Future Freight Flows Scenario Planning Workshop Insights
Explore the key ideas and differences between four future freight flow scenarios, analyzing global trade, resource availability, energy costs, environmental awareness, city growth, population dispersion, energy sources, migration policies, and more. Review results from individual scenarios and global marketplace voting outcomes to understand investment levels and market preferences.
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Presentation Transcript
Debrief for the Future Freight Flows Scenario Planning Workshop Your Name Date Organization 1
Key Ideas Fast paced, Interconnected, Chaotic, Minimal Government intervention, Commercial Heavy handed, Regulated, Slower pace, Feel of 1970 s PBS broadcast, Strong government Self-Reliance, Merging cultures, Trading Blocs, Re- domestication of manufacturing Mfg. clusters, Make close to consumption, Dispersed demographics, Nuclear renaissance 3
Differences Between Scenarios Global Trade Low High High Low (physical) Resource Availability Low Low High High Energy Cost Level High High Low Low Energy Cost Variability Level of Environmental Awareness Low High High Low Same as Today High Low High Growth in Biggest Cities Mix Foreign & Domestic Growth in Biggest Cities Rise in Mid Tiered Cities Population Dispersion Growth in SW Energy Sources Majority NA Majority Foreign Majority Domestic High w/in Bloc, Low between High Level of Migration High High Low Migration Policy Currency Fluctuations High Low Low Low w/in Bloc High Moderate Low 4
Global Marketplace: Voting results Global Marketplace 30% Percentage of "Invest points" and "Vetoes" 25% 20% 15% 10% received 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% -30% Segment 10 Segment 11 Segment 12 Segment 13 Segment 14 Segment 15 Segment 16 Segment 1 Segment 2 Segment 3 Segment 4 Segment 5 Segment 6 Segment 7 Segment 8 Segment 9
Global Marketplace: Level of investment 100% Maintain 1 1 90% 3 3 1 Improve 4 4 80% 5 3 5 5 Add 6 6 6 7 70% 8 8 2 8 3 1 60% 2 1 50% 3 1 10 4 2 40% 3 8 2 30% 1 7 7 1 6 6 6 3 5 20% 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 10% 1 0% Segment 8 Segment 9 Segment 10 Segment 11 Segment 12 Segment 13 Segment 14 Segment 15 Segment 16 Segment 1 Segment 2 Segment 3 Segment 4 Segment 5 Segment 6 Segment 7
Global Marketplace: Funding sources, policy level Private only 100% 0 Public/Private partnership 2 2 90% 3 3 4 4 4 Public only 80% 5 6 6 6 6 National-level policy 7 3 7 1 70% 4 8 9 60% 4 3 3 50% 1 3 2 2 40% 1 4 8 8 30% 7 3 1 6 5 5 5 5 20% 2 4 4 4 4 3 10% 2 2 1 0% Segment 2 Segment 10 Segment 11 Segment 12 Segment 13 Segment 14 Segment 15 Segment 16 Segment 1 Segment 3 Segment 4 Segment 5 Segment 6 Segment 7 Segment 8 Segment 9
Millions of Markets: Voting results Millions of Markets 30% Percentage of "Invest points" and "Vetoes" 25% 20% 15% 10% received 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% -30% Segment Segment Segment Segment Segment Segment Segment Segment 1 Segment 2 Segment 3 Segment 4 Segment 5 Segment 6 Segment 7 Segment 8 Segment 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Millions of Markets: Level of investment 100% 1 1 1 2 90% Maintain 3 3 3 4 80% Improve 5 5 3 5 3 3 3 7 7 7 7 Add 70% 8 2 60% 4 2 4 1 50% 3 4 40% 8 8 2 8 30% 7 3 3 7 6 6 4 3 5 5 20% 4 3 3 10% 2 2 1 1 0% Segment 4 Segment 10 Segment 11 Segment 12 Segment 13 Segment 14 Segment 15 Segment 16 Segment 1 Segment 2 Segment 3 Segment 5 Segment 6 Segment 7 Segment 8 Segment 9
Millions of Markets: Funding sources, policy level 0 100% 0 Private only 2 2 2 90% 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 Public/Private partnership 80% 2 Public only 3 7 7 7 3 70% 8 8 3 3 9 3 National-level policy 60% 4 3 50% 40% 1 8 8 8 30% 1 7 3 3 7 6 6 6 3 5 1 5 20% 4 3 10% 2 2 2 1 0% Segment Segment Segment Segment Segment Segment Segment Segment 1 Segment 2 Segment 3 Segment 4 Segment 5 Segment 6 Segment 7 Segment 8 Segment 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Natfastique!: Voting results Naftastique! 30% Percentage of "Invest points" and "Vetoes" 25% 20% 15% 10% received 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% -30% Segment Segment Segment Segment Segment Segment Segment Segment 1 Segment 2 Segment 3 Segment 4 Segment 5 Segment 6 Segment 7 Segment 8 Segment 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Naftastique: Level of investment 100% 1 1 2 90% Maintain 1 3 4 4 Improve 80% 5 6 4 6 Add 7 7 3 7 7 7 70% 8 2 8 60% 2 50% 4 2 10 40% 1 3 2 2 4 2 30% 1 7 7 7 4 6 5 3 20% 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 10% 2 1 1 0%
Naftastique: Funding sources, policy level Private only 100% Public/Private partnership 2 90% 3 3 3 Public only 4 4 80% 5 5 6 6 National-level policy 7 7 7 70% 4 8 1 9 3 60% 2 4 10 4 1 50% 2 1 2 40% 1 2 30% 7 6 6 6 2 4 6 5 5 5 5 20% 2 4 4 1 3 10% 2 1 1 1 0%
One World Order: Voting results One World Order 30% Percentage of "Invest points" and "Vetoes" 25% 20% 15% 10% received 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% -30% Segment 10 Segment 11 Segment 12 Segment 13 Segment 14 Segment 15 Segment 16 Segment 8 Segment 1 Segment 2 Segment 3 Segment 4 Segment 5 Segment 6 Segment 7 Segment 9
One World Order: Level of investment 100% 1 90% Maintain 1 3 4 4 4 4 Improve 80% 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 Add 7 70% 8 8 1 3 60% 2 2 1 1 50% 2 2 4 1 10 2 4 40% 30% 3 7 6 6 6 2 6 6 5 5 5 20% 4 4 4 3 10% 2 2 0% 0
One World Order: Funding sources, policy level Private only 100% Public/Private partnership Public only 1 2 90% 3 3 4 80% National-level policy 3 5 5 6 6 2 1 7 7 7 70% 8 3 9 9 60% 10 3 50% 2 2 4 40% 1 8 4 8 8 30% 3 4 6 2 5 5 20% 4 4 2 2 1 3 10% 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 0%
Which scenario seems most like TODAY? 78% 1. Naftastique! 2. One World Order 3. Global Marketplace 4. Millions of Markets 13% 7% 2% Naftastique! One? World Order Global Marketplace Millions? of Markets 18
Which scenario is MOST LIKELY to occur? 34% 32% 1. Naftastique! 2. One World Order 3. Global Marketplace 4. Millions of Markets 25% 9% Naftastique! One World Order Global Marketplace Millions of Markets 19
Which scenario do you PREFER to occur? 56% 1. Naftastique! 2. One World Order 3. Global Marketplace 4. Millions of Markets 40% 5% 0% Naftastique! One? World Order Global Marketplace Millions? of Markets 20
Cross-Scenario Comparisons Scenario Implications Robust Implications Contingent Implications No No Regret No Gainer Sensors in the Ground Risk Detailed Review Brainer Management New strategy development process Acid testing current strategy 22
All scenarios: Voting results 30% 25% Percentage of "Invest points" and "Vetoes" 20% 15% 10% received in all scenarios 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% -30% -35% -40% Segment 13 Segment 10 Segment 11 Segment 12 Segment 14 Segment 15 Segment 16 Segment 1 Segment 2 Segment 3 Segment 4 Segment 5 Segment 6 Segment 7 Segment 8 Segment 9
All scenarios: Level of investment 100% 100% 90% 90% 80% 80% 70% 70% 60% 60% 50% 50% 40% 40% 30% 30% 20% 20% 10% 10% 0% 0% 100% 100% 90% 90% 80% 80% 70% 70% 60% 60% 50% 50% 40% 40% 30% 30% 20% 20% 10% 10% 0% 0%
All scenarios: Funding sources, policy level 100% 100% 90% 90% 80% 80% 70% 70% 60% 60% 50% 50% 40% 40% 30% 30% 20% 20% 10% 10% 0% 0% 100% 100% 90% 90% 80% 80% 70% 70% 60% 60% 50% 50% 40% 40% 30% 30% 20% 20% 10% 10% 0% 0%
Wrap Up 26
