Global Agricultural Challenges and Local Solutions
Explore the challenges and solutions in global agriculture and food security, including rising commodity prices, food system complexities, trade disruptions, and more. Discover the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook and the efforts towards improving food security worldwide.
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AGRICULTURE AND FOOD SECURITY: GLOBAL CHALLENGES AND LOCAL SOLUTIONS Lee Ann Jackson, OECD 12 July 2022 1
In the last two years, global agricultural commodity prices have increased strongly FAO Food Price Index increased FAO Food Price Index (nominal) and sub-indices, 2010-2022 300.0 250.0 200.0 150.0 100.0 50.0 0.0 2010-01 2010-05 2010-09 2011-01 2011-05 2011-09 2012-01 2012-05 2012-09 2013-01 2013-05 2013-09 2014-01 2014-05 2014-09 2015-01 2015-05 2015-09 2016-01 2016-05 2016-09 2017-01 2017-05 2017-09 2018-01 2018-05 2018-09 2019-01 2019-05 2019-09 2020-01 2020-05 2020-09 2021-01 2021-05 2021-09 2022-01 Food Price Index Meat Dairy Cereals Oils Sugar
Food systems are facing a daunting triple challenge Food security & nutrition Environmental sustainability Livelihoods Things are not black or white: food systems have important achievements as well as serious shortcomings Better policies can make a difference: existing OECD work has identified many areas for improvement
Current disruptions add to these challenges Source: UN Comtrade average for 2018-2020
Global food security impacts of trade disruptions (Scenario results) 0% -50% -10% - 25% Based on preliminary scenarios with Aglink-Cosimo
OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook Joint OECD-FAO report published annually in June/July 10 year horizon Projections based on modelling and global expert input Global coverage Detailed chapters for all major commodities Released : 29 June 2022 www.agri-outlook.org
Limited convergence in diet composition Per capita availability of the main food groups (in calories)
Declining carbon intensity of agricultural production Annual change in agricultural output and direct GHG emissions, 2022-31
Trade is essential for global food security Share of imports in consumption % 2009-11 2019-21 2031 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 North America Sub-Saharan South and Southeast Asia Europe and Central Asia Latin America and Caribbean Developed and East Asia Near East and North Africa Africa Calculations using average calorie content of commodities included in the Outlook. Note that exports/imports include feed, and availability includes processing of commodities which may be re-exported.
Long-term evolution of commodity prices, in real terms (2019=100) Soybeans Wheat Maize Beef Pork 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
Acceleration in productivity growth needed to achieve Zero Hunger and GHG reductions by 2030
Innovation, biosecurity and infrastructure can boost sustainable productivity growth General Services Support Estimate, 2019-21 (% of agricultural value of production) Agricultural innovation system Infrastructure Inspection and control Other 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0
Key messages Substantial acceleration in productivity growth required Boost agricultural investment and innovation Enable knowledge, technology, and skills transfers Increase efforts to develop coherent policy packages A well-functioning, predictable trading system is increasingly important Open markets, including through trade facilitation and avoiding export restrictions Investing in transparency to build trust Regulatory harmonization to reduce unnecessary friction Cooperation, consultation, coordination to achieve robust institutional change
