Global Economic Prospects June 2025 Insights
Explore the Global Economic Prospects report for June 2025 by the World Bank. Discover global growth forecasts, recent market developments, risks to the global outlook, and more. Gain insights into economic trends shaping the world's financial landscape.
Download Presentation
Please find below an Image/Link to download the presentation.
The content on the website is provided AS IS for your information and personal use only. It may not be sold, licensed, or shared on other websites without obtaining consent from the author. If you encounter any issues during the download, it is possible that the publisher has removed the file from their server.
You are allowed to download the files provided on this website for personal or commercial use, subject to the condition that they are used lawfully. All files are the property of their respective owners.
The content on the website is provided AS IS for your information and personal use only. It may not be sold, licensed, or shared on other websites without obtaining consent from the author.
E N D
Presentation Transcript
Global Economic Prospects June 2025 www.worldbank.org/gep
Global Economic Prospects June 2025 Global Outlook (Chapter 1) Regional Outlooks (Chapter 2) Foreign Direct Investment in Retreat: Policies to Turn the Tide (Chapter 3) Fragile and Conflict-Affected Situations: Intertwined Crises, Multiple Vulnerabilities (Chapter 4) 2
Global Economic Prospects June 2025 Underlying data and charts can be found at www.worldbank.org/gep 3
Recent Market Developments Elevated Financial Volatility; Weakening Export Orders; Falling Commodity Prices Manufacturing new export orders (Index; 50 + = expansion) Commodity prices, 2025 (Index; January 2025 = 100) EMDE equities and bonds, 2025 (Index; Jan. 1=100) Stock index Bond spreads (RHS) (Basis points) 53 110 120 400 50 100 100 350 47 90 80 300 All commodities Energy Metals and minerals Trade-exposed EMDEs Other EMDEs 44 80 60 250 Jun-24 Nov-24 Apr-25 Jan Feb Mar Apr Jan Mar Jun 4
Global Growth Forecasts Broad-Based Slowdown 5
Global Economic Prospects Synchronized Downgrades to Outlook; Slowing Global Trade Contribution to global growth downgrades (Percentage points) 0.0 Growth slowing or downgraded (Percent of economies, 2025) Global trade growth (Percent) World 80 8 Exporting to advanced economies Exporting to EMDEs 60 6 -0.2 40 4 -0.4 20 2 Advanced economies EMDEs 0 -0.6 0 Slowing growth Forecast downgrade 2025 2026 2024 2025 2026 Source: World Bank. Left Panel. Share of economies with slowing growth (left bar) and with growth outlook downgraded relative to January 2025 forecasts (right bar). Horizontal line denotes 50 percent. Center Panel. Contributions to the global growth downgrade between the June and January 2025 editions of Global Economic Prospects. Right Panel. Growth of global trade volume in goods and services. Exporting to advanced economies refers to trade growth for countries with over 50 percent of trade with advanced economies during 2015-19; exporting to EMDEs refers to trade growth for countries with over 50 percent of their exports to EMDEs during 2015-19. www.worldbank.org/gep 6
Risks to the Global Outlook Multiple Downside Risks but Some Upside Risks Too 7
Risks: Trade, Uncertainty, and Spillovers Costs of Trade Barriers and Uncertainty Global GDP growth during 1990-2024 (Percent) Growth in alternative scenarios (Percentage points; deviation from baseline) Impact of policy uncertainty on EMDEs (Percentage points) 0 4 0.4 0 1990-2024 average -0.2 -0.5 3 0.0 -0.4 -1 2 -0.4 Median -0.6 -1.5 1 One-time One-time Persistent Persistent Downside Upside -0.8 2025 2026 2025 2026 2025 2026 0 2025 Bottom 10th percentile World Advanced economies EMDEs GDP Investment (RHS) Sources: Baker, Bloom, and Davis (2016); Consensus Economics; Federal Reserve Bank of New York; Haver Analytics; Oxford Economics; World Bank. Left Panel. GDP aggregates calculated using real U.S. dollar GDP weights at average 2010-19 prices and market exchange rates. Right bar shows the lowest 10th percentile of annual global growth observed during 1990- 2024. Center Panel. Deviation of aggregate growth in the upside and downside scenarios from the baseline in the June 2025 Global Economic Prospects, using Oxford Economics Global Economic Model. Right Panel. Impact of a 10-percent rise in global Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) on EMDE output and investment growth. GDP-weighted cumulative impulse responses one year after a one-time or persistent (over 4 quarters) EPU shock. Based on Bayesian vector autoregressions with four lags estimated over 1998Q1-2023Q4for 39 EMDEs (including China). Bars are 68 percent confidencebands. www.worldbank.org/gep 8
