Heating Electrification Analysis & Results
"Learn about the in-depth analysis of heating electrification economics, cost-effectiveness, and implementation scenarios. Discover key assumptions and findings from the study conducted by EEB Technical Consultants."
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Presentation Transcript
Heating Electrification Analysis Updated C&I Results EEB Technical Consultants June 7, 2022
Overview Consultant Team has conducted an in-depth analysis of space and water heating electrification economics and cost-effectiveness Aligns with Three-Year Plan Priority of Decarbonization and growing interest in incorporating heating electrification in CT s energy efficiency programs Recent regional work in this area (for Mass.) has been leveraged to provide high quality analysis at low cost 2
Why is This Important? Heating electrification presents a wide variety of implementation scenarios with very different customer and utility economics Deep understanding of these scenarios is needed to determine best way to incorporate electrification into C&LM Programs 3
Scenarios Analyzed Full displacement Full displacement measures were assumed to provide 100% heating needs. Total resource cost (TRC) tests were conducted for installed cost, and the incremental costs over heating and air conditioning equipment. Partial displacement Partial displacement values were assumed to provide heating down to 30 degrees, below which fossil fuel equipment would provide heat. TRC was determined for installed cost. 4
Key Assumptions Energy Costs Oil and Propane prices were taken from 11/15/21 EIA CT price survey Gas price is Eversource CT gas price Electric price is Eversource CT electric price Projections All energy prices were projected to change proportionally with Avoided Energy Supply Cost (AESC) projections. Initial years were tweaked to give a more realistic ramp from current prices Cost effectiveness tests Total resource cost (TRC) test and modified utility cost (MUCT) test were conducted as per definitions in CT models. Loan rates Financing analysis was run at a 0.99% APR for a 10-year term 5
New Ground Source Heat Pump ROB TRC Test- Incremental Cost TRC Test - Incremental Cost TRC Test - Incremental Cost MUCT MUCT MUCT Scenario Gas Oil Propane Full Displacement Boiler 1.3 1.82 2.96 5.96 4.33 10.41 Full Displacement Furnace 0.92 1.7 2.12 5.84 3.12 10.29 Baseline Technology: Boiler or Furnace and Air Conditioning Replace on Burnout (ROB) GSHP 4.9 COP 6
Preliminary Results Ductless Mini Split TRC Test- Incremental Cost TRC Test - Incremental Cost TRC Test - Incremental Cost MUCT MUCT MUCT Scenario Gas Oil Propane .84 .42 3.66 13.06 6.07 27.17 Full Displacement Partial .62 .96 2.74 14.10 4.55 28.75 Displacement Baseline Technology: Boiler and Air Conditioning Replace on Burnout (ROB) 8
Preliminary Results Ducted Heat Pump TRC Test- Incremental Cost TRC Test - Incremental Cost TRC Test - Incremental Cost MUCT MUCT MUCT Scenario Gas Oil Propane .37 -1.48 2.27 22.64 3.90 49.70 Full Displacement Partial .34 -1.26 2.37 25.21 4.10 54.89 Displacement Baseline Technology: Furnace and AC Replace on Burnout (ROB) 9
Preliminary Results VRF and DOAS TRC Test- Incremental Cost TRC Test - Incremental Cost TRC Test - Incremental Cost MUCT MUCT MUCT Scenario Gas Oil Propane 1.44 8.19 N/A N/A N/A N/A Full Displacement Variable Refrigerant Flow heat pump system combined with a Dedicated Outdoor Air System Baseline Technology: Roof Top Unit Replace on Burnout (ROB) 10
Preliminary Results Ground Source HP TRC Test- Incremental Cost TRC Test - Incremental Cost TRC Test - Incremental Cost MUCT MUCT MUCT Scenario Electric Oil Propane .82 1.55 N/A N/A N/A N/A Full Displacement Ground Source Heat Pump Baseline Technology: Variable Refrigerant Flow New Construction 11
Preliminary Results HP Water Heater TRC Test- Incremental Cost TRC Test - Incremental Cost TRC Test - Incremental Cost TRC Test - Incremental Cost MUCT MUCT MUCT MUCT Scenario Gas Oil Propane Electric .49 -.73 3.23 7.78 5.67 17.79 1.47 4.39 Storage -.08 -1.80 2.04 4.78 3.92 12.52 1.14 3.39 On Demand Heat Pump Water Heater with 60 Gallon capacity Baseline Technology: as indicated above Replace on Burnout (ROB) 12
Displacing Gas has Negative LCC Measure Description First Year Cash Flow Life Cycle Costs VRF/HP + DOAS replacing RTU - 4k sqft $ (6,491) $ (59,534.20) C&I ducted HP displacing 100% of furnace, oil $ (550) $ 3,892.50 C&I ducted HP displacing 100% of furnace, propane $ 1,389 $ 33,081.85 C&I ducted HP displacing 100% of furnace, gas $ (2,538) $ (30,681.91) DMSHP displacing 100% of boiler, oil $ 292 $ 14,500.77 DMSHP displacing 100% of boiler, propane $ 2,207 $ 44,889.99 DMSHP displacing 100% of boiler, gas $ (1,674) $ (21,677.46) C&I ducted HP partially displacing furnace, oil $ (457) $ (593.63) C&I ducted HP partially displacing furnace, propane $ 607 $ 15,420.13 C&I ducted HP partially displacing furnace, gas $ (1,548) $ (19,561.72) DMSHP partially displacing boiler, oil $ (278) $ 1,977.22 DMSHP partially displacing boiler, propane $ 717 $ 17,755.31 DMSHP partially displacing boiler, gas $ (1,298) $ (16,806.51) Ground Source Heat Pump New Const. $ (194) $ 15,111.73 13
Displacing Gas has Negative LCC Measure Description First Year Cash Flow Life Cycle Costs 60 Gal HPWH replacing Oil Storage $ 336 $ 3,570.37 60 Gal HPWH replacing Propane Storage $ 1,057 $ 10,196.11 60 Gal HPWH replacing NG Storage $ (405) $ (3,929.18) 60 Gal HPWH replacing Electric Storage $ 126 $ 1,047.93 60 Gal HPWH replacing Oil On-Demand $ 78 $ 1,071.00 60 Gal HPWH replacing Propane On-Demand $ 635 $ 6,191.54 60 Gal HPWH replacing NG On-Demand $ (495) $ (4,724.83) 60 Gal HPWH replacing Electric On-Demand $ 53 $ 378.43 14
Next Steps Carbon impacts Once appropriate emissions factors are chosen, carbon impacts of measures can be determined Sensitivity testing For all created measures, sensitivity testing can be conducted to determine critical points in cost effectiveness/customer economics Fuel price fluctuations Changes in avoided costs Carbon pricing 15
Expected Outcomes Analysis provides a better understanding of heating electrification in CT Inform what measures can be implemented now, and what market changes may be needed to support less cost-effective installations Provides a tool that can be used to test the sensitivity of these space and water heating measures to future market/program changes, e.g., changes in fuel prices or equipment costs 16
Linkages Between Statute and Programs C&LM PROGRAMS: may include, but are not limited to Conservation and load management programs Programs that benefit low-income people Research, development and commercialization of energy efficient products Development of markets for such products Support of energy use assessments, demand response, engineering related to new construction or renovations Design, manufacture, commercialization, and purchase of energy efficiency appliances and HVAC equipment Program planning and evaluation Indoor air quality programs Joint fuel conservation to reduce the energy consumption of more than one fuel source Water conservation Public education Demand side technology programs 18
