Hospital of the Future Model Design: H-VISION Platform
Hospital of the Future model design project focuses on responding to ageing population challenges with innovative healthcare solutions. The team's approach includes long-range planning, stratified analysis, and simulation modeling to address key aspects such as patient forecasts, capacity estimations, and stakeholder engagement. The project aims to shape a modern healthcare system that integrates technology, agility, and staff well-being for sustainable healthcare delivery in the future.
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Table Talk Presentation Hospital of the Future model design Hospital VIrtual System sImulatiON (H-VISION) Platform Ashish Kumar*, Sean Shao Wei Lam*, Chan Sze Ling, Xu Yingqi, Ge Yao, Geoffrey Gui Kah Tack, Tan Hiang Khoon *Joint first authors SingHealth-Duke NUS Academic Medicine Centre Singapore 0:00-0:30 @systemdynamics_ #isdc2024 THE 42ND INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM DYNAMICS CONFERENCE Bergen, Norway and Virtually
Problem: Hospital of the Future Context Rapid transition to First World High life expectancy, costs controlled (but rising) Ageing population with stressed health system A new general hospital to go live in 2035 Brief to modelling team Keep client s vision in mind: Respond to ageing, not more of the same ; agility; productivity; alternate models of care; staff wellbeing; hospital gravitating towards quaternary Time horizon: ~80 Years Keep work grounded. Landing points : How many beds, emergency treatment units, operating theatres, These results will form part of brief to architects and medical planners 0:30-2:00 @systemdynamics_ THE 42ND INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM DYNAMICS CONFERENCE THE 40TH INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM DYNAMICS CONFERENCE #isdc2022 #isdc2024 Bergen, Norway and Virtually Virtually everywhere!
Approach: Long range planning * Stratified by Source, Bed Type, Age-Group and HORNC indicator ** stratified by Age Group (5-year cohort) and HORNC indicator ++ stratified by Age Group (5-year cohort), HORNC indicator and acuity (P1P2 and P3P4) Ageing New SOC visits** per 1000 pop per year Births Deaths Resident Population, stratified by age Net in- migration Follow-up SOC visits** per 100 discharged inpatients Inpatient Admissions* per 100 ED patients ED attendances each year Inpatients each year SOC visits each year ED attendances++ per 1000 pop per year Abbreviations SOC = Specialist Outpatient Centre ED = Emergency Department Surgeries** per 100 Inpatient discharges Inpatient Admissions* per 100 SOC New visits Surgeries each year 2:00-3:30 @systemdynamics_ THE 42ND INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM DYNAMICS CONFERENCE THE 40TH INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM DYNAMICS CONFERENCE #isdc2022 #isdc2024 Bergen, Norway and Virtually Virtually everywhere!
Progress, Insights, and Questions (1/2) Data extraction & input estimation WG guidance on AMoC++ Qualitative mapping Simulation Model 0 Strawman Model Simulation Model 1 Population forecast Baseline patient forecasts: SOC ED Inpatient, S&P** Data required Causal Loop Diagrams Population and HSU* rates Patient and capacity forecasts under AMoC Estimated AMoC traction Length of Stay and other parameters Baseline capacity forecasts 3:30-5:00 @systemdynamics_ THE 42ND INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM DYNAMICS CONFERENCE THE 40TH INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM DYNAMICS CONFERENCE #isdc2022 #isdc2024 Bergen, Norway and Virtually Virtually everywhere!
Progress, Insights, and Questions (2/2) Q1: Design. 80-year model driven by population ageing yearly clock. Inefficiencies baked into macro-level forecasts; we intend to augment this top- down analysis with bottom-up analyses. Suggestions? Q2: Precedents and parallel work. What prior work can we draw upon? What parallel work can we learn from (and perhaps share our learnings with) ? Q3: Insight beyond numbers. Keeping EF Schumacher s criticism of The Limits to Growth study in mind, how can we extract insight beyond numbers ? {Will insert Schumacher s words here. Effectively he was saying that there is no big deal in projecting that world will run out of resources is that is built into your mental model} 3:30-5:00 @systemdynamics_ THE 42ND INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM DYNAMICS CONFERENCE THE 40TH INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM DYNAMICS CONFERENCE #isdc2022 #isdc2024 Bergen, Norway and Virtually Virtually everywhere!
