Impact of Covid-19 on Official Statistics: Insights for Central Banks
Covid-19 has posed significant challenges for central banks in producing and utilizing official statistics. This presentation discusses the impact of the pandemic on statistical functions, priorities, and implications for central banks, emphasizing the need for proactive responses, dealing with production disruptions, and leveraging alternative data sources. It also addresses the key insights for statistical users, emphasizing the importance of timely and accurate information in times of crisis.
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Presentation Transcript
The impact of Covid-19 on official statistics: the experience of central banks Bruno Tissot Head of Statistics and Research Support, BIS & Head of the Secretariat of the Irving Fisher Committee on Central Bank Statistics (IFC) Pre-Conference Workshop of the 36thCIRET conference on Innovation to address data demands for statistical analysis in times of crisis Virtual / Istanbul, Turkey 13 September 2022, organized by the United Nations Statistics Division, Marmara University, the KOF Swiss Economic Institute and the Turkish Statistical Institute. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the BIS or the IFC.
Overview 1. Covid-19 (CV19) impact on central banks as producers & users of official statistics a unique perspective in the NSS 2. Implications for central banks statistical function 3. Priorities looking forward 2
1. CV19 impact on central banks as (i) producers Proactive response of central bank statisticians Statistical darkness: sudden stops / new activities Facing production disruptions Challenges: responses rates / physical surveys / registers Dealing with distorted economic indicators Measurement bias in eg activity / inflation New methodological issues eg nowcasting/monthly indices How to disentangle impact of government actions? A key dilemma Speed and specificity of CV19: call for more data Compilation difficulties & relaxation in reporting obligations 3
1. and users of statistics Key insights Value of the statistical chest available since the GFC But be prepared for unusual shocks / new policy issues think the unthinkable Risk of taking decisions in the dark need for information precisely at times of disruptions Challenges for central banks data users Limited accuracy/availability/frequency of indicators Compilation difficulties & delays Structural shifts, statistics hard to compare & interpret Important information trade-offs 4
2. Implications for central banks statistical function General review triggered by CV19 More, not less information: timeliness, frequency, flexibility New data needs as unexpected shocks raise new phenomena Alternative data sources Reorganise the statistical production chain to Get a comprehensive overview of the economy Have flexibleframeworks to address evolving users needs Incorporate complementary sources in main frameworks A wake up call for official statistics Make better use of (untapped) existing data Revamp statistical frameworks by leveraging on innovation Enhance users experience with data (access, governance) 5
3. Priorities looking forward 3 main focus Enhancing existing core official statistics Addressing newly-emerging data needs Strengthening the global statistical infrastructure 6
3(i) Enhancing existing core official statistics Pursuing post-GFC statistical exercises Urgency underscored by the pandemic To compile better economic aggregates eg FA, debt To collect more granular financial information Globalisation and international initiatives 4 main financial areas for central banks, as highlighted by CV19 market turmoil in 2020 Credit flows Repos / Securities Financing Transactions (SFT) FX funding needs Derivatives 7
3(ii) Addressing newly-emerging data needs Alternative data Private data sources, administrative registers Complement to improve official statistics Leveraging on IT innovation / AI techniques Information buffer in crisis times Timeliness / accuracy trade-off New topics not covered by traditional statistics Soft indicators (eg sentiment, anecdotal evidence) Multiple factors supporting resilience/sustainability Environmental, social & governance (ESG) issues Close related data gaps 8
3(iii) Stronger global statistical infrastructure Further the work undertaken after the GFC Global identifiers eg LEI Data standards eg SDMX 3.0 Data sharing / access / cooperation Macro / micro integration (Regtech, distributional data) Enhanced compilation process Multiple benefits: rapidity, frequency, less revisions International cooperation is essential Address economic & financial globalisation Knowledge sharing and pilot projects eg AI tools Best practices eg data access & quality principles Prioritisation of data needs for policy 9
Thank you!! Questions? bruno.tissot@bis.org IFC.secretariat@bis.org See also BIS webpage on Covid-19 statistical resources De Beer, B and B Tissot (2020): Implications of Covid-19 for official statistics: a central banking perspective , IFC WP no 20 Rosolia, A, Stapel-Weber, S and B Tissot (2021): New developments in central bank statistics around the world , Statistical Journal of the IAOS, vol 37, No. 4, pp. 1055 60. IAG website 10
