Implications of Brexit Conference: Unknown Unknowns & Growth Undermined
Implications of Brexit conference held at Glenavon House Hotel, Cookstown, highlighting the impact of post-Brexit uncertainty on growth potential, productivity, FDI, and trade deals. Delve into the challenges faced by NI amidst changing economic landscapes."
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Leslie Budd Implications of Brexit Conference at Glenavon House Hotel, Cookstown Thursday 22nd of September 2016 1
The Issues Brexit means Brexit is a meaningless tautology. We are in the realm of unknown unknowns (Donald Rumsfeld); Post-Brexit uncertainty undermining growth potential = 0.3% in 2017 (PWC, NI); Productivity Growth undermined by lower FDI; Misunderstanding of modern trade and role of Global Value Chains (GVCs) means alternative deals on offer do not take account of this; Devolved Corporation Tax undermined and damaging unless proper fiscal settlement with The Treasury; The Border Paradox. 2
Growth Projections and economic activity 2014 2015 2016 2017 NI UK ROI 2.2 1.5 1.2 0.3 2.9 2.3 1.8 0.7 6.0 7.8 4.5 3.3 4
Current Relative Unemployment Trends 5
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) crucial for Productivity Telecommunications & ICT; Life & Health Sciences; Agrifood; Advanced Materials; Advanced Engineering; (MATRIX sectors) Also for utility of reduced Corporation Tax rate from 1st April 2018 and the changing the effective rate of doing business across border with ROI and gaining advantage of all-Island market and beyond in EU; Especially the case in examining the role of Global Values Chains (GVCs) in integrating economic activities in a large economic space. 6
Possible post-Brexit Trade Deals Re-structured EU (but only after French and German Elections, 2017); European Economic Area (Norway Model); European Free Trade Agreement (EFTA, Switzerland); Comprehensive and Trade Agreement (CETA, Canada); World Trade Organsation (WTO) rule-based bi-lateral deals; BUT Northern Ireland different to rest of UK because of ROI 8
Outcomes: The Matryoshka Doll? 9
The Border Paradox ? 10
