Implications of Demographic Change on Texas Transportation Trends
Explore the demographic shifts in Texas from 1950 to 2010, analyzing changes in population, licensed drivers, and vehicle miles traveled. Understand the impact of these trends on future transportation needs in Texas up to 2050.
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The Future - The Implications of Demographic Change for Transportation in Texas Michael E. Cline, Ph.D. Associate Director, Hobby Center for the Study of Texas Rice University May 21, 2014 Austin, TX
Percentage Change in Population and Licensed Drivers in Texas by Decade, 1950-2010 2
Change in Licensed Drivers Per 1,000 Population, 1950-2010 800 700 655.6 652.7 645.6 602.8 569.8 600 500 454.3 400 362.7 300 200 100 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 3
Change in Population and Licensed Drivers, 1950-2010 Percent Change from Previous Time Licensed Drivers Per 1,000 Population Number Percent Change -- 25.3 25.4 14.6 0.4 -1.5 -6.6 Year 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Population 7,711,194 9,579,677 11,196,730 14,229,191 16,986,510 20,851,820 25,145,561 Drivers 2,796,862 4,352,168 6,380,057 9,287,826 11,136,694 13,462,023 15,157,650 Population -- 24.2 16.9 27.1 19.4 22.8 20.6 Drivers -- 55.6 46.6 45.6 19.9 20.9 12.6 Drivers 362.7 454.3 569.8 652.7 655.6 645.6 602.8 Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, Office of Highway Policy Information, Highway Statistics Series; and U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Censuses.
Percentage Change in Licensed Drivers in Texas by Age, 1990-2010 5
Average Yearly Vehicle Miles Traveled in 2009 by Race/Ethnicity of Texas Driver Average VMT Race/Ethnicity NH White NH Black Hispanic NH Asian & Other Total Yearly 14,518 13,778 12,205 12,109 13,716 Daily 39.8 37.7 33.4 33.2 37.6 Source: U.S. Dept. of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, 2009 National Household Travel Survey, 2011. 6
Population, Licenses Drivers, Yearly Vehicle Miles of Travel, and Road Miles Needed, 2010-2050 Yearly Vehicle Miles of Travel Drivers Per 1,000 Population Additional Road Miles Needed Total (in Billions) 204.2 243.5 288.1 341.1 408.3 Year 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Source: Projections by the authors; and 2010 driver estimates and rates derived from U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, Highway Statistics Series, 2009, 2010, and 2011; and U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, National Household Travel Survey 2009; U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, Office of Highway Policy Information, Highway Statistics Series, Highway Statistics 2011. Population 25,145,561 30,583,311 37,282,785 45,316,711 55,205,530 Drivers 15,157,650 18,625,949 22,708,486 27,403,007 33,261,797 Per Driver 13,475 13,075 12,688 12,446 12,276 602.8 609.0 609.1 604.7 602.5 - 71,218 155,050 251,448 371,753 7
Drivers, Vehicle Ownership, and Commute Mode in 2050 Using Alternative Rate Assumptions Factor Drivers Vehicle Miles Traveled Yearly Aggregate (Billions) Yearly Per Driver Daily Per Driver Zero Vehicle Households Commuters Driving Alone Carpooling Riding Public Transit Percent Commuters Using: Driving Alone Carpooling Riding Public Transit Current Rates NH White Rates 33,261,797 Difference -3,549,618 36,811,415 408.3 12,276 33.6 561,201 23,330,819 18,252,935 3,026,020 413,371 518.6 14,088 38.6 229,062 23,853,603 19,752,154 1,988,859 199,722 -110.3 -1,812 -5.0 332,139 -522,784 -1,499,219 1,037,161 213,649 78.2 13.0 1.8 82.8 8.3 0.8 -4.6 4.7 1.0 8
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Happy Trails to You! Mike Cline Associate Director, Hobby Center for the Study of Texas For copies of the presentation and additional data for your area go to: http://hobbycenter.rice.edu Phone: 713-348-5396 E-mail: mec6@rice.edu
