Insights into Covid-19 Impact and Business Uncertainty Trends
Explore key findings on Covid-19 impact, uncertainty levels, and business expectations from a panel of decision-makers, shedding light on sales growth, sources of uncertainty, and future projections.
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Presentation Transcript
Decision Maker Panel: Key Decision Maker Panel: Key Charts for Covid Charts for Covid- -19 19 Nick Bloom (Stanford), Phil Bunn (Bank of England), Scarlet Chen (Stanford) Paul Mizen (Nottingham), Pawel Smietanka (Bank of England), Jenny Lam (Bank of England) May May 2020 2020 Disclaimer: Any opinions and conclusions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the Bank of England or its Committees.
Uncertainty around year-ahead sales growth expectations Percentage changes on a year earlier 9 Single month 3 month rolling average 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20
Covid-19 as a source of uncertainty Percentage of businesses 100 March 2020 April 2020 May 2020 80 60 40 20 0 Not important One of many Top two or three Largest source of uncertainty
Percentage of firms reporting Covid-19 as top source of uncertainty within survey waves
Date when coronavirus-related uncertainty will be resolved Percentage of respondents 50 April 2020 May 2020 40 30 20 10 0 By By By By Apr 21+ Jun 20 Sep 20 Dec 20 Mar 21
Overall uncertainty Percentage of businesses February 2020 March 2020 April 2020 May 2020 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Very low Low Medium High Very high Level of uncertainty
Covid-19 vs Brexit as sources of uncertainty Largest source
Covid-19 impact on sales, employment and investment over the next year Percentage impact of Covid-19 0 -10 Employment -20 Sales -30 Investment -40 -50 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2021 Q1 Forecast period
Covid-19 impact on sales in 2020 Q2 by industry Recreational Services Accommodation & Food Passenger Transport Non-Food Wholesale & Retail Construction Non-Food Manufacturing Mining & Quarrying Admin & Support Finance & Insurance Real Estate Education Other Services Prof & Scientific Services Other Transport & Storage Health Utilities Food Manufacturing Food Wholesale & Retail Information & Communication Agriculture Highly consumer facing services Non-food manufacturing & construction Less consumer facing services Essential services -100 -90 -80 -70 -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 Percentage impact of Covid-19 on sales in 2020 Q2
Expected impact of Covid-19 on sales and employment in 2020 Q2 by industry Accom & Food Recreational Services Construction Wholesale & Retail Transport & Storage Admin & Support Manufacturing Finance & Insurance Real Estate Prof & Scientific Other Services Info & Comms Health Other Production -90 -80 -70 -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 Percentage impact of Covid-19 on sales/employment in 2020 Q2
Expected impact of Covid-19 on sales and level of labour productivity, by industry Log of labour productivity (2019) 5 4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5 -90 -80 -70 -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 Percentage impact of Covid-19 on sales in 2020 Q2
Impact of Covid-19 on employees, May 2020 Furloughed Unable to work (eg sick, self isolating) Working on business premises Working from home Accom & Food Construction Wholesale & Retail Manufacturing Transport & Storage Real Estate Admin & Support Other Services Prof & Scientific Health Finance & Insurance Other Production Info & Comms All firms 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Percentage of employees Working from home more concentrated in higher productivity service industries 12
Impact of Covid-19 on firms demand for credit in Q2 Percentage of respondents 60 April 2020 May 2020 50 40 30 20 10 0 Less credit No material impact More credit - expect available More credit - expect unavailable 13
Disruption to non-labour inputs from Covid-19 Percentage of respondents 70 April 2020 May 2020 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 1-24 25-49 50-74 75+ Inputs disrupted as a percentage of non-labour costs 14
