Insights into Labour Force Survey Q1 2021 Results & ILO Classification

Labour Force Survey Quarter 1 2021 Results 23 June 2021

Section 1: Introduction

Labour Market classification in the Labour Force Survey The official labour market classification of respondents to the Labour Force Survey (LFS) is based on the International Labour Organisation (ILO) criteria 3

ILO classification in the LFS Employment (15+ years) Employment (15+ years) Persons who worked in the week before the survey for one hour or more for payment or profit, including work on the family farm or business and all persons who were away from work during the reference week but had a job to which they could return to 4

ILO classification in the LFS Unemployment (15 Unemployment (15- -74 years) Persons who in the week before the survey, were without work available to start work within the next two weeks had taken specific steps, in the previous four weeks to find work 74 years) 5

ILO classification and LFS Inactive (15+ years) Inactive (15+ years) All other persons 6

Integration of European Social Statistics (IESS) Regulation New European regulation came into force on 01 January 2021 Aims to ensure that social statistics based on sample surveys, e.g. the Labour Force Survey (LFS), are produced in a more harmonised and coordinated manner across Europe Changes to LFS questionnaire from Q1 2021 because of the IESS regulation with some questions added, some removed, and others have changed in terms of response options or frequency The flow of the LFS questionnaire across Europe is now more prescribed and harmonised The LFS questionnaires for Ireland for Q1 2021 and previous quarters are available here: https://www.cso.ie/en/methods/surveyforms/labourforcesurvey/ 7

Integration of European Social Statistics (IESS) Regulation Breaks in series Breaks in series Minimal changes in Ireland Pilot survey Engagement with Methodology (CSO) and Eurostat Postponement of publication of the LFS for Q1 2021 to allow the CSO to analyse the results of the pilot survey and to fully evaluate the impacts of the IESS regulation on the LFS Re-engineering of existing LFS series to produce a consistent and coherent historic LFS series for users 8

Integration of European Social Statistics (IESS) Regulation Up to Q4 2020, the attachment (absence duration of at most three months and/or continued receipt of at least half of their salary from their employer) was only being tested for those who indicated that they were Away from work because of Temporary lay-off All other reasons for absence from work in the reference week were being automatically classified as Employed. From Q1 2021, the attachment to employment is also being tested for those Away from work in the reference week due to parental leave, off-season and other reasons. 9

Attachment to job Testing for Job attachment pre and post IESS Rules for attachment to job for absences from work Pre-IESS Post-IESS Pre-IESS Post-IESS Holidays Working time arrrangements Illness/disability Maternity/Paternity Job related training Parental Off season No No No No No No No No No No No No Yes Yes Length of absence and share of of salary paid applied to temporary layoffs only Length of absence and salary payment for parental leave Off-season - whether do any occasional work for employer or not Yes1 Yes No Temporary layoff Other reason Waiting to start a new job Yes No n/a Layoffs/Other reason - length of absence only 1 Post-IESS include all layoffs 10

Integration of European Social Statistics (IESS) Regulation Re Re- -engineering historic LFS series engineering historic LFS series Minimal impact prior to 2020 In 2020, because of the impact of COVID-19 and Government restrictions, the numbers who reported being Away from work in the reference week, increased substantially and the attachment to employment is being tested for more persons rather than being assumed for them The net effect is that, under the IESS FR, there are fewer persons Away from work in the reference week being classified as Employed, which reduces the total number of employed persons during 2020 but has a minimal impact on results prior to 2020 11

Series comparisons Number of Persons in Employment - Pre-IESS and Post-IESS 2,500 2,000 1,500 '000s 1,000 500 0 Q1 02 Q1 03 Q1 04 Q1 05 Q1 06 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Q1 21 Pre-IESS Post-IESS 12

Series comparisons Number of Unemployed Persons - Pre-IESS and Post-IESS 000s 360 330 300 270 240 210 180 150 120 90 60 30 0 Q1 02 Q1 03 Q1 04 Q1 05 Q1 06 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Q1 21 Pre-IESS Post-IESS 13

Series comparisons Participation rate - Pre-IESS and Post-IESS % 70 68 66 64 62 60 58 56 54 52 50 Q1 02 Q1 03 Q1 04 Q1 05 Q1 06 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Q1 21 Pre-IESS Post-IESS 14

Series comparisons % Employment rate - Pre-IESS and Post-IESS 75 70 65 60 55 50 Q1 02 Q1 03 Q1 04 Q1 05 Q1 06 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Q1 21 Pre-IESS Post-IESS 15

Series comparisons 16

COVID-19 and the Labour Force Survey (LFS) The methodology in the Information Note published with the Q2 2020 LFS results in August 2020 still applies, please see link https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/in/lfs/information note-implicationsofcovid-19onthelabourforcesurvey- quarter22020update/ COVID-19 continues to have a very significant impact on the data collection for the LFS LFS interviews for Q1 2021 were carried out by telephone. The Q1 2021 LFS results today adhere to the standard International Labour Organisation (ILO) criteria for calculating labour market estimates 17

COVID-19 Adjusted Unemployment Estimates COVID-19 Adjusted Unemployment rates and volumes have been published as part of the Monthly Unemployment Estimates release since March 2020 Should be considered as the upper bound for Unemployment The latest COVID-19 Adjusted Estimates of Unemployment for March 2020 to May 2021 inclusive are also published today 18

COVID-19 Adjusted Employment Estimates COVID-19 Adjusted Employment Estimates were first published in the LFS in Q1 2020 Should be considered as the lower bound for Employment COVID-19 Adjusted Estimates of Employment volumes for persons 15 years and over and corresponding Employment Rates for persons aged 15-64 are included in the LFS today for the end of March 2021 to the end of May 2021 19

Section 2: Headline Statistics

LFS Q1 2021 headline estimates COVID-19 Adjusted Estimates March 2021 (end of Q1 2021) Standard LFS Methodology (ILO) Q1 2021 Indicator Employed persons aged 15 years and over Employment rate for those aged 15-64 years 2,230,600 1,785,923 65.6% 52.0% 21

LFS Q1 2021 headline estimates COVID-19 Adjusted Estimates March 2021 (end of Q1 2021) Standard LFS Methodology (ILO) Q1 2021 Indicator Unemployed persons aged 15-74 years 170,500 612,443 Unemployment rate for those aged 15-74 years 7.1% 25.7% 22

LFS Q1 2021 headline estimates COVID-19 Adjusted Estimates March 2021 (end of Q1 2021) Standard LFS Methodology (ILO) Q1 2021 Indicator In labour force Participation rate 2,401,100 60.0% - - Not in labour force 1,603,400 - 23

Labour Market Estimates ILO criteria New attachment criteria perhaps highlight the effect of COVID-19 better than heretofore Previously most would still have been classified as employed ILO Status of persons away from work in Q1 2021 Inactive, 23.3% Unemployed, 9.5% Employed, 67.2% 24

ILO Status of PUP/EWSS Recipients Percentage of persons aged 15 years and over and in receipt of the Pandemic Unemployment Payment (PUP) or the Employment Wage Subsidy Scheme (EWSS) in reference in Q1 2021 and all persons in Q1 2021 classified by ILO status, LFS Q1 2021 PUP recipients in Q1 2021 EWSS recipients in Q1 2021 All persons aged 15 years and over % % % Employed Unemployed Inactive 49.5 91.2 44.5 16.7 2.4 3.4 33.8 6.4 52.1 25

Section 3: Employment

Employment and hours worked Number of persons in employment (ILO), number of persons 'Away' from work and Actual Hours worked per week (in millions) in Q1 2020 and Q1 2021 Q1 2020 Q1 2021 Annual Change Employment 'Away' from work (not working) Actual Hours Worked (millions) 2,347,200 2,230,600 -116,600 (-5.0%) 208,400 309,500 +101,100 (+48.5%) 76.3 68.7 -7.6 (-9.9%) 27

Absences from work in the reference week as a percentage of the numbers employed by Economic Sector, Quarter 1 2019 to Quarter 1 2021 Quarter Economic Sector Q1 2019 % 2.9 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.3 7.1 4.0 6.9 4.9 7.0 5.7 9.7 6.9 6.0 5.9 Q1 2020 % 4.8 6.3 9.4 7.4 9.3 11.4 6.3 6.3 7.1 11.3 6.6 15.6 10.2 12.0 8.9 Q1 2021 % 3.3 7.5 28.4 17.1 16.4 40.8 3.1 7.2 6.2 18.2 6.3 15.7 12.4 36.2 13.9 Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing Industry Construction Wholesale & Retail Trade Transportation & Storage Accommodation & Food Service Activities Information & Communication Financial, Insurance & Real Estate Activities Professional, Scientific & Technical Activities Administrative & Support Service Activities Public Administration & Defence Education Human Health & Social Work Activities Other Activities (Cultural & Recreation) All Economic Sectors 28

Absences from work in the reference week as a percentage of the numbers employed by Economic Sector, LFS Q1 2019 to Q1 2021 All Economic Sectors Other Activities (Cultural & Recreation) Human Health & Social Work Activities Education Public Administration & Defence Administrative & Support Service Activities Professional, Scientific & Technical Activities Financial, Insurance & Real Estate Activities Information & Communication Accommodation & Food Service Activities Transportation & Storage Wholesale & Retail Trade Construction Industry Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0 Q1 2021 Q1 2020 Q1 2019 29

Total actual hours worked (millions) per week by Economic Sector, LFS Q1 2019 to Q1 2021 Other Activities (Cultural & Recreation) Human Health & Social Work Activities Education Public Administration & Defence Administrative & Support Service Activities Professional, Scientific & Technical Activities Financial, Insurance & Real Estate Activities Information & Communication Accommodation & Food Service Activities Transportation & Storage Wholesale & Retail Trade Construction Industry Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 Millions of hours worked per week Q1 2021 Q1 2020 Q1 2019 30

Employment by sector Decreases in 8 sectors Largest rates of annual decrease: Accommodation & Food Services sector (-43.6% or -73,900) Administration & Support Services sector (-29.8% or -33,300) Other Activities (cultural & recreational) sector (-29.8% or -34,700) Construction sector (-19.1% or -28,100) Largest rates of annual increase: Information & Communication sector (+9.5% or +12,200) Public Administration & Defence sector (+7.3% or +8,400) 31

Unadjusted Employment by gender Q1 2021 Annual change Males 1,200,600 -67,200 (-5.3%) Females 1,030,000 -49,300 (-4.6%) 32

Annual change in full-time/part-time employment In the year to Q1 2021: Full-time : -71,300 (-3.8%) to 1,796,900 Part-time: -45,300 (-9.5%) to 433,700 (all females) Full-Time Equivalent (FTE) employment in main job down 47,100 (-2.2%) between Q1 2020 and Q1 2021 Annual change in Full-Time and Part-Time Employment, Q1 2016 to Q1 2021 '000 150 100 50 0 -50 -100 Change in FT employment Change in PT employment -150 Q116 Q216 Q316 Q416 Q117 Q217 Q317 Q417 Q118 Q218 Q318 Q418 Q119 Q219 Q319 Q419 Q120 Q220 Q320 Q420 Q121 33 33

Part-time underemployment Indicator Q1 2021 Annual change Part-time underemployment 107,900 -3,400 (-3.0%) Part-time underemployment accounted for 24.9% of part-time employment in Q1 2021 34

Employment status Indicator Q1 2021 Annual change Self employed 281,000 -50,400 (-15.2%) Employees 1,922,000 -81,100 (-4.1%) 35

Employment Seasonally adjusted Seasonally adjusted employment was 2,250,500 in Q1 2021, down 0.4% from 2,260,300 in previous quarter Quarterly change in seasonally adjusted employment, Q1 2016 to Q1 2021 150.0 100.0 50.0 0.0 000's -50.0 -100.0 -150.0 -200.0 -250.0 36 36

Section 4: Unemployment

Unemployment - unadjusted 170,500 persons unemployed in Q1 2021 Unemployment up +48.6% or +55,800 over the year Unemployment rate up from 4.7% to 7.1% over the year Total number of persons unemployed, Q1 2016 to Q1 2021 '000 250 200 150 100 50 0 Q116 Q216 Q316 Q416 Q117 Q217 Q317 Q417 Q118 Q218 Q318 Q418 Q119 Q219 Q319 Q419 Q120 Q220 Q320 Q420 Q1 21 38 38

Unemployment by gender Gender Indicator Q1 2021 Annual change Males Unemployed 93,500 +29,600 (+46.4%) Rate 7.3% +2.4 percentage points Females Unemployed 77,000 +26,200 (+51.5%) Rate 7.0% +2.5 percentage points 39

Unemployment - duration Long-term unemployment rate up from 1.3% to 1.7% over the year Total number of persons classified as long-term unemployed is now 40,800 up 8,800 (+27.6%) from Q1 2020 Long-term unemployment as proportion of all unemployed now 23.9% 40

Unemployment - seasonally adjusted Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate up from 6.2% to 7.3% over the quarter The seasonally adjusted number of persons unemployed is up by 27,600 (+18.2%) from 151,100 to 178,700 Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Q1 2016 to Q1 2021 % 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 Q116 Q216 Q316 Q416 q117 Q217 Q317 Q417 Q118 Q218 Q318 Q418 Q119 Q219 Q319 Q419 Q120 Q220 Q320 Q420 Q121 41 41

Latest Monthly Unemployment Estimates Seasonally Adjusted Figures Non Seasonally Adjusted Figures Number of persons unemployed 113,100 181,300 174,700 Traditional Unemployment rate (%) Unemployment rate (%) COVID-19 Adjusted Unemployment rate (%) May 2020 April 2021 May 2021 5.1 7.9 7.8 5.3 7.9 8.0 29.8 24.8 21.9 Percentage Points Percentage Points Percentage Points Change in month -6,600 - 0.1 0.1 -2.9 Change in year 61,600 2.7 2.7 -7.9 42

Section 5: Labour Force

Labour Force Unadjusted Decreased by 60,800 (-2.5%) over the year to 2,401,100 in Q1 2021 Participation decreased over the year from 62.2% to 60.0% Demographic effect +20,000 Participation effect -80,700 Seasonally Adjusted Increase of 4,900 or 0.2% over the quarter to 2,420,700 in Q1 2021 44

Section 6: Forthcoming releases and Summary of Q1 2021 LFS results 45

Forthcoming releases Monthly Unemployment Estimates (May 2021) published today Monthly Unemployment Estimates (June 2021) 30 June 2021 Live Register (June 2021) 02 July 2021 Earnings Analysis Using Administrative Data Sources or EAADS for 2019 and possibly 2020 To be confirmed, expected in July 2021 PxStat tables 2020 annual results for Earnings and Labour Costs will be updated when the EAADS is published LFS Q2 2021 To be confirmed Earnings and Labour Costs for Q2 2021 To be confirmed 46

Integration of European Social Statistics (IESS) Regulation Actions by Ireland The CSO have re-engineered the historic LFS series to take account of the main changes to the LFS series in Ireland due to IESS Users were advised about this work on the historic LFS series in the following information note which was published recently: https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/in/lfs/implicationsoftheimplem entationoftheintegrationofeuropeansocialstatisticsiessframeworkregulationonla bourmarketstatisticsinirelandin2021/ The changes to the historic LFS series are minimal and mainly affect the series in 2020 as they relate to the treatment of those who are absent from work in the reference week where the attachment to employment is being tested for additional reasons for the absence 47

Integration of European Social Statistics (IESS) Regulation Actions by Ireland (continued) The revised historic LFS series is being made available to users today in the LFS release tables and on the PxStat database dissemination service Additional material is also being made available with the LFS results today to demonstrate the size of the effect on key labour market indicators The CSO will continue to monitor the LFS series throughout 2021 and engage with Eurostat to ensure that any breaks in series have been removed Users will be kept informed if further updates are required to the historic LFS series 48

In summary. Results for Q1 2021, like previous quarters, have been compiled according to ILO definitions and concepts The effects of COVID-19 continue to be apparent from the results. Over the year, employment fell by 116,600 while unemployment increased by 55,800 The effect of increased public health restrictions during the quarter was also evident In Q1 2021, seasonally adjusted employment was down just under 10,000 from Q4 2020 while unemployment rose by 27,600 49

In summary. The average number of hours actually worked each week in Q1 2021 was 68.7 million hours, down 9.9% or 7.6 million hours per week from a year earlier The results show that for a number of sectors the hours worked were near Q1 2019 levels but for others, the considerable adverse effect of the pandemic is evident Absences from work during the reference week were just under 310,000 in Q1 2021 compared to just over 208,000 in Q1 2020 50