Insights into PACRA Ratings Universe and Trends
"Explore the comprehensive insights behind PACRA ratings universe, key developments, industry trends, and the importance of promoting transparency in rating activities. Discover how PACRA communicates with users through mediums like PACRA Insight. Stay informed about the entity ratings, growth, and activity in various sectors across Pakistan for informed decision-making." (291 characters)
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PACRA INSIGHT A Medium to communicate with the Users of Ratings A Medium to communicate with the Users of Ratings ISSUE III; February 2014 Wednesday, February 12, 2014 Humaira Jamil
Communicating. The Insight Insightbehind PACRA INSIGHT PACRA sRating Universe (Product-by-product) Key Developments & Trends Pakistan s Pakistan sRating Universe Snapshot Industry IndustryView General Insurance, Microfinance, Power, Refining, Textiles, AMCs, cement PACRA s
The Insight Insight behind PACRA INSIGHT Consolidating Information Promoting Transparency There is nothing so terrible as ACTIVITY without INSIGHT Johann Wolfgang Von Goethe
PACRAs PACRA s Rating Universe Key Developments & Trends FIGURE I FIGURE II SNAPSHOT - PACRA Ratings Composition (Dec10- Dec13) SNAPSHOT -PACRA Ratings Universe Growth (Dec10 - Dec13) 100% 300 PACRA Universe-Total Ratings (Nos.) 30 300 Ratings ( PACRA Universe Share %) 90% New (withdrawn / redeemed) Ratings (Nos.) 250 80% Total PACRA Opinions (Nos.) 220 20 250 215 222 215 220 70% 219 218 218 219 200 210 220 210 222 60% 220 10 200 50% 150 40% 0 150 100 30% -10 100 20% 50 10% Dec10 Jun11 Dec11 Jun12 Dec12 Jun13 Dec13 -20 50 0% 0 Dec10 Jun11 Dec11 Jun12 Dec12 Jun13 Dec13 -30 0 Mutual Funds (including Asset Managers) Instrument Ratings New Clients Withdrawals / Redemptions Entity Ratings PACRA Opinions (Total)
PACRAs PACRA s Rating Universe Entities FIGURE III PACRA Entity Ratings Composition & Growth (Dec10 - Dec13) FIGURE IV Entity Rating Activity across Rating Categories (For calendar year ended Dec 31, 2013) 100% 98 Rating Activity - upgrades/Downgrades 90% 97 97 4 Ratings category Share (%) 80% 96 70% 95 95 95 3 60% 94 2 50% (Nos.) 93 93 93 40% 1 92 92 92 30% 91 0 20% 90 10% AAA AA+ AA AA- A+ A A- BBB+ BBB BBB- BB-B CCC- -1 C 0% 89 Dec10 Jun11 Dec11 Jun12 Dec12 Jun13 Dec13 -2 Upgrades Downgrades AAA BBB All Entity Ratings AA BB - B A CCC - C
PACRAs PACRA s Rating Universe Entities PACRA ENTITY RATING UNIVERSE (Entry / Exit) (For calendar year ended Dec 31, 2013) Initial L/T Ratings Last L/T Ratings Entities Withdrawn Entities Financial Institutions 1. SME Bank The Pakistan General Insurance Company Waseela Microfinance Bank Saudi Pak Insurance Company BBB 1. Pak Brunei Investment Company AA 2. A- 2. Arif Habib Investments A+ 3. 4. BBB+ A- Corporates 5. 6. 7. 8 Autosoft Dynamics Mangla Metals Kohsar HydroPower Pakistan Refinery Islamabad Electric Supply Company Maple Leaf Cement Factory Limited A- BBB BBB A- 3. 4. 5. 6. Ahmed Fine Textile Mills Hussain Mills FFC Energy Halmore Power Generation Company A- A- A A 9. A+ 10. BB
PACRAs PACRA s Rating Universe Outlook Analysis Ratings Outlook Analysis Positive Negative Opening @ July 1, 2013 9 6 Translated in Rating Change (-) 1 3 Translated in Outlook Change (-) 2 0 Maintained (+) 5 3 Ratings Not Reviewed (+) 0 0 Withdrawn (-) 1 0 During 1HFY14: New (+) 4 2 Opening @ Jan 01, 2014 9 5
PACRAs PACRA s Rating Universe Instruments FIGURE V SNAPSHOT -PACRA Instrument Rating Universe Composition & Growth (Dec10-Dec13) 100% 70 90% 60 58 Ratings category Share (%) 80% 51 50 70% 49 46 Ratings (Nos.) 60% 45 40 39 36 50% 30 40% 30% 20 20% 10 10% 0% 0 Dec10 Jun11 Dec11 Jun12 Dec12 Jun13 Dec13 AAA A BB - B All Instrument Ratings AA BBB CCC - C
PACRAs PACRA s Rating Universe Instruments PACRA INSTRUMENT RATING UNIVERSE (Entry / Exit) (For calendar year ended Dec 31, 2013) [Initial ratings] Issuers / Instruments Initial Instrument Ratings NIB Bank | TFC II: Upto PKR 5,000mln (including a green shoe option of PKR 1,000mln) TFC TBI1 1. A+ 2. PAIR Investment Company | CP: PKR 500mln CP TBI AA 3. Bank Alfalah | TFC V: PKR 500mln TFC V issued Feb13 AA- The Pakistan Water & Power Development Authority | PPTFC2: PKR 9,327mln TFC issued Sept13 Pakistan Refinery Limited | TFC I: PKR 500mln issued Aug13 Pakistan Refinery Limited | TFC II: PKR 500mln issued Aug13 Maple Leaf Cement Factory Limited | Restructured Sukuk: PKR 8bln Sukuk restructured Sept12 [Withdrawn3 ratings] Issuers / Instruments 4. AAA 5. A 6. A 7. BB+ Last Instrument Ratings 1. Engro Fertilizers | Sukuk II: PKR 1,500mln TBI A 1TBI: To be issued 2CY13 had 15 Instrument Redemptions
PACRAs PACRA s Rating Universe Asset Management Ratings FIGURE VIII FIGURE IX FIGURE VIII SNAPSHOT -Mutual Fund Rankings Composition & Growth (Dec10 - Dec13) SNAPSHOT -Fund Stability Ratings Composition & Growth (Dec11-Dec13) SNAPSHOT -Asset Manager Ratings Composition & Growth (Dec10-Dec13) 40 100% 45 100% 14 100% 90% 42 35 90% Ratings category Share (%) 90% 40 29 Ratings category Share (%) 27 12 39 39 29 80% 12 12 30 37 80% 12 11 11 27 80% Ratings category Share (%) 35 70% 28 27 10 70% Ratings (Nos.) 33 Ratings (Nos.) 70% 60% 31 30 60% 9 8 9 28 20 50% 60% 50% 25 6 40% 40% 50% 20 30% 30% 4 40% 10 20% 20% 15 2 30% 10% 10% 10 20% 0 0 0% 0% 5 Dec10 Jun11 Dec11 Jun12 Dec12 Jun13 Dec13 Dec10 Jun11 Dec11 Jun12 Dec12 Jun13 Dec13 10% AM1 AM3 AM5 AM2 AM4 All Asset Manager Ratings 0 0% 1-star 3-star 5-star 2-star 4-star All Rankings Dec10 jun11 Dec11 Jun12 Dec12 Jun13 Dec13 AAA(f) AA(f) A(f) BBB(f) Total
Credit Risk Rise & Fall A Rise in Credit Risk Ratings Entities New Previous Notches (Action date) Shaheen Insurance Company BBB- A- 3 (01Aug13) National Refinery AA+ AAA 1 (23Oct13)
Pakistans Pakistan s Rating Universe - Snapshot FIGURE XI Pakistan Ratings Universe Growth (CY09 - CY13 ) FIGURE X Pakistan Entity Ratings Universe Compostion in Rating Categories (As @ Dec 31, 2013 ) 450 430 Universe Ratings (Nos.) 400 422 420 419 DCRA Ratings (Nos.) 350 190 410 188 410 179 187 100 300 407 172 400 250 85 80 200 390 Ratings (Nos.) 150 381 380 42 232 231 228 60 223 209 100 57 370 50 20 40 0 360 5 0 27 CY09 CY10 CY11 CY12 CY13 43 20 16 37 4 7 0 12 PACRA JCR-VIS Universe 11 5 0 1 0 AAA AA A BBB BB - B CCC - C PACRA JCR-VIS Universe end-CY13
Pakistans Pakistan s Rating Universe Classes of Ratings FIGURE XI Pakistan Ratings Universe Compostion in Rating Classes (As @ Dec 31, 2013 ) 100 Ratings (Nos.) 75 42 35 50 46 42 21 11 18 25 15 32 27 27 25 24 24 2 13 11 7 0 JCR PACRA
Thank You ! UPCOMING UPCOMING: ISSUE IV; August 2014
