Insights into Tennessee Higher Education Commission Reports

Statutory Reports: Overview and Findings Emily House Tennessee Higher Education Commission Winter Quarterly Meeting January 27, 2016 Tennessee Higher Education Commission

Three reports, plus TN Promise Articulation and Transfer Profiles and Trends Supply and Demand TN Promise update Tennessee Higher Education Commission

Reports available https://www.tn.gov/thec/topic/legislative-reports Tennessee Higher Education Commission

Articulation and Transfer Tennessee Higher Education Commission

TN undergraduates are mobile. Among those who earned a Bachelor s degree in AY 2013-14: 44.6 percent transferred at least once. 33.7 previously enrolled at a 2-year institution (in- or out-of-state; public or private.) 29.4 percent attended a CC in Tennessee. Tennessee Higher Education Commission

Where transfer occurs: Tennessee Higher Education Commission

Transfer is multi-directional. PUBLIC UNIVERSITY Horizontal Vertical COMMUNITY COLLEGE PUBLIC UNIVERSITY N = 12,917 Vertical Horizontal COMMUNITY COLLEGE Tennessee Higher Education Commission

Out-of-state transfers Tennessee Higher Education Commission

Moving forward: Transfer Pathways Time to degree? Impact on major choice? Tennessee Promise How many Promise students transfer (to four-year institutions?) Students who transfer vs. those who do not? Tennessee Higher Education Commission

Profiles and Trends Tennessee Higher Education Commission

New this year Figures and data available on the THEC website. Tennessee Higher Education Commission

Attainment and personal income Tennessee Higher Education Commission

High school graduation rate United States SREB Median (excluding TN) Tennessee 87.2% 87.0% 90.0% 86.3% 86.0% 84.5% 81.4% 81.4% 80.0% 79.0% 79.0% 78.0% 60.0% 30.0% 0.0% 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 Tennessee Higher Education Commission

College going rate by race 2011 2012 2013 2014 69.1 68.7 69.2 69.4 59.6 58.4 59.0 53.3 53.2 58.5 54.3 51.9 41.4 34.9 34.3 33.7 Black Hispanic White Asian Tennessee Higher Education Commission

College going rate low income U.S. TN SREB (excluding TN) 45% 38.4% 33.4% 30% 32.3% 19.9% 16.5% 16.8% 15% 0% 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 Tennessee Higher Education Commission

6-year graduation rate Tennessee Higher Education Commission

6-year grad rate by subgroup Public 4-year Public 2-year 67.7% 61.3% 60.0% 60% 52.1% 50.5% 46.4% 40.9% 33.2% 30.1% 27.2% 30% 26.0% 24.2% 23.3% 9.8% 0% Males Females White Black Hispanic Eligible Not eligible GENDER ETHNICITY PELL ELIGIBILITY Source: THEC Tennessee Higher Education Commission

Key takeaways: Tennessee performs well on some metrics, and not as well relative to the nation as a whole and the Southern region on others. How will trends change in next 1, 5, 10 years due to recent programs and interventions related to the Drive to 55? Tennessee Higher Education Commission

Academic Supply and Occupational Demand Tennessee Higher Education Commission

Report overview Degrees awarded in Tennessee will increase over the next decade. All degree levels Natural growth AND additional growth There is high demand for skilled labor in a number of fields. Conversely, some fields oversupplied Many institutions offer programs to meet workforce needs. Tennessee Higher Education Commission

Expected awards Greatest growth in BAs and certificates; public and for-profit institutions. Growth does not account for shocks to higher education. Tennessee Promise Tennessee Reconnect Tennessee Higher Education Commission

Workforce needs High-demand occupations are similar to those in past years: Manufacturing Construction Transportation Banking and finances Education Salaries for these positions > statewide median per capita income (~ $25,000.) Tennessee Higher Education Commission

Workforce needs Occupation Manufacturing Transportation Construction Banking & Finance Education Deficit 2,633 1,758 1,500 971 685 Average Salary $33,297 $41,461 $42,000 $52,694 $47,394 Tennessee Higher Education Commission

Program offerings Academic and job-training programs to meet needs of high-demand occupations available at all institution types across the state. Not limited to one type of institution or region of the state. Tennessee Higher Education Commission

i.e. - Construction Institutions Building and Construction Technology Plumbing TCAT - Chattanooga Masonry TCATs Chattanooga, Program Award type Diploma, Certificate TCATs Chattanooga, Livingston, Memphis, Nashville Diploma, Certificate Diploma, Certificate Memphis TCATs Athens, Chattanooga; Pellissippi, Southwest CCs Chattanooga State Nashville State Southwest Northeast State CCs MTSU Electrical Installation and Repair Certificate Electrical Engineering Technology AA Construction Management BA Tennessee Higher Education Commission

Caveats: There is not a one-to-one relationship between degree programs and jobs. i.e. highly specific certificates or doctoral degrees versus more general Bachelor s degrees Report does not fully demonstrate the role of proprietary institutions, due to data limitations. Tennessee Higher Education Commission

Many resources address this: THEC LEAP report ECD reports EduTrendsTn.com Tennessee Higher Education Commission

Apprenticeships? Tennessee Higher Education Commission

TN Promise update Tennessee Higher Education Commission

Fall Spring retention We ll know soon 14th day enrollment files forthcoming. ~80 percent of Promise students completed community service by December 1. Who persists without TN Promise? Similar to TELS program? Transfer behavior Tennessee Higher Education Commission

TN Promise: Next steps Research, research, research TN Promise students enrolling elsewhere Waterfall when do students drop off the TN Promise, and where do they end up? Students enrolling in 2- vs. 4-year institutions Variation by region, county, high school TDOE analyses Financial aid packaging Tennessee Higher Education Commission

Thank you! Questions? emily.house@tn.gov Tennessee Higher Education Commission