Insights into Texas Children: Demographic Trends and Well-Being
Explore the demographic trends, population growth, race/ethnicity composition, and child well-being in Texas through data and projections from various sources. Understand the challenges and characteristics shaping the lives of children in Texas.
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Demographic Trends, Characteristics, and Projections of Texas Children NALEO Roundtable on the Youngest Texans Austin, TX January 16, 2019 @TexasDemography
Population Growth of Select States, 2000-2018 Numeric Change 2010-2018 Percent Change 2010-2018 2000 2010 2018 Population Population Population United States 281,421,906 308,745,538 327,167,434 18,409,329 6% Texas 20,851,820 25,145,561 28,701,845 3,555,731 14% California 33,871,648 37,253,956 39,557,045 2,302,522 6% Florida 15,982,378 18,801,310 21,299,325 2,494,745 13% Georgia 8,186,453 9,687,653 10,519,475 830,766 9% North Carolina 8,049,313 9,535,483 10,383,620 847,884 9% Washington 5,894,121 6,724,540 7,535,591 811,051 12% Arizona 5,130,632 6,392,017 7,171,646 779,358 12% Colorado 5,029,196 5,029,196 5,695,564 666,248 13% Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Count, 2018 Population Estimates. 2
Texas Population by Race/Ethnicity, 2010-2017 14 Millions 12 11.9 11.4 11.2 10 9.5 8 6 4 3.4 2.9 2 1.4 0.5 1.0 0.4 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Hispanic NH White NH Black NH Asian NH Other 3 Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2017 Population Estimates
Race/Ethnicity Composition and Change among Children, Texas, 2010 & 2017 Numeric Change Percent Change 2010 2017 All Children, Under 18 6,865,824 7,366,039 500,215 7.3% Hispanic 3,317,777 3,645,511 327,734 9.9% Children 0-8 years 3,586,052 3,815,002 228,950 6.4% Hispanic 1,769,202 1,871,670 102,468 5.8% NH White 1,198,368 1,236,875 38,507 3.2% NH Black 441,498 482,578 41,080 9.3% NH Asian 150,839 192,661 41,822 27.7% NH Other 26,145 31,218 5,073 19.4% 4 Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2010 Decennial Census and 2017 Population Estimates
Total Fertility Rates by Race/Ethnicity, Texas, 1990-2017 3.5 3 2.99 2.5 2.39 2.25 2.1 2.14 2 1.92 1.83 1.85 1.71 1.5 1 0.5 0 1990 1995 2000 2001 2002 2010 2013 2017 Texas Replacement TFR NH White Hispanic NH Black 5 Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Health Statistics, National Vital Statistics Reports
Child Well-Being in Texas Texas ranked 43rd in latest national rankings of child well-being. 35th in economic well-being Over 454, 000 (22.8%) Texas children under age 5 live in poverty (SAIPE, 2017); 20.6% of Hispanic families live below poverty. 39.7% of Hispanic female householder families live in poverty 32nd in education 469,000 (58%) of 3 and 4 year-olds not enrolled in school, with Hispanics having the highest rate (63%) 64.2% of Hispanics have HS degree or higher, compared to 93.5% for NH White 13.8% of Hispanics have BA degree or higher, compared to 37.3% for NH White 47th in family and community Nearly 2.5 million (35%) Texas children live in single-parent families. More than half (54-56%) of Hispanic children live in single-parent families. 41st in health Over 735,000 (9.7%) Texas children are uninsured. Second lowest child health insurance rate in the country. (SAHIE, 2016) 6 Source: Annie E. Casey Foundation, 2018 Kids Count Data Book; U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2013-2017 5-Year Estimates
Child Well-Being in Texas 2.4 million (34%) Texas children live in immigrant families 90% of these children are U.S. citizens 13.3% of Texas K-12 students have at least one parent who is unauthorized (2016, Pew Research Center) 2.07 million (28%) Texas children live in families receiving public assistance Texas ranks 4th in births to teens and 1st in repeat births to teens In U.S. in 2015, homicide 3rd leading cause of death for children under 5 and 4th for children under 10. (CDC, National Center for Health Statistics) 7 Source: Annie E. Casey Foundation, 2018 Kids Count Data Book
Teen (ages 15 to 19 years) Birth Rates, U.S. and Top 15 States, 2016 2016 State Rank Birth Rate per 1,000 Women # of Teen Births 29,765 United States Arkansas Oklahoma Mississippi Texas Kentucky Louisiana New Mexico West Virginia Alabama Tennessee Wyoming Alaska South Dakota Nevada District of Columbia 20.3 34.6 33.4 32.6 31.0 30.9 30.6 29.8 29.3 28.4 28.0 26.1 25.8 25.1 24.2 24.0 Change in Teen Birth Rate From 2015 From peak year, 1991 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 -10% -60% Repeat Teen Births Number Percent 5,748 19% # of Teen Births by Race/Ethnicity NH White NH Black Hispanic Asian/Pacific Islander 6,007 3,825 19,604 187 2015 Teen Birth Rate by Race/Ethnicity NH White NH Black Hispanic 20.9 34.3 47.6 8 Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Projected Population, 2010-2050, Texas 55 54.4 Zero Migration 50 0.5 Migration 47.3 1.0 Migration 45 2010-2015 Migration 40.5 40 Millions 35 31.2 30 25 20 10 Source: Texas Demographic Center, 2014 and 2018 Population Projections
Projected Population by Race and Ethnicity, Texas 2010-2050 25 Millions 20.2 20 15 13.5 10 6.0 5 5.8 1.8 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 NH White NH Black Hispanic NH Asian NH Other 11 Source: Texas Demographic Center 2018 Population Projections
Projected Race/Ethnicity Composition by Age Group, Texas, 2010 & 2050 Year NH White NH Black NH Asian NH Other Hispanic 2010 34% 12% 3% 3% 48% Children (Under 18 years) 2050 22% 12% 11% 6% 49% 2010 47% 12% 4% 2% 36% Working Age (18 to 64 years) 2050 28% 13% 13% 4% 42% 2010 68% 8% 3% 1% 20% Seniors (65 plus years) 2050 39% 12% 10% 2% 37% 12 Source: Texas Demographic Center, 2018 Population Projections
Project Population by Age Group, Texas, 2010-2050 50 MILLIONS 45 8.31 40 7.54 6.91 35 6.24 5.58 30 4.76 3.91 23.98 3.20 22.18 25 2.60 20.49 19.02 17.57 20 16.35 15.27 14.14 13.10 15 4.31 4.01 3.72 3.43 10 3.29 3.17 2.98 2.83 2.57 5.33 5.04 4.75 4.44 4.13 3.88 3.75 3.58 3.40 5 5.42 5.09 4.82 4.58 4.32 4.05 3.77 3.58 3.47 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 00-08 09-17 18-24 25-64 65-95+ 13 Source: Texas Demographic Center, 2018 Population Projections
Hispanic Population Ages 0-8 as Percent of State Hispanic Population Ages 0-8, 2010 & 2050 HispanicPop_Age_8under_2010 AsPercofTotal_10 0.00% - 0.49% 0.50% - 0.99% 1.00% - 4.99% 5.00% - 9.99% 10.00% - 18.30% 14 Source: Texas Demographic Center, 2018 Population Projections
Projected Race/Ethnicity Composition for Population 0-8 Years of Age, Texas, 2010-2050 3% 3% 3% 4% 4% 5% 5% 5% 6% 3% 4% 5% 5% 6% 7% 9% 10% 11% 50% 50% 50% 50% 51% 51% 51% 50% 50% 11% 11% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 32% 31% 30% 29% 27% 25% 24% 23% 22% 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 NH White Total NH Black Total Hispanic Total NH Asian Total NH Other Total 15 Source: Texas Demographic Center, 2018 Population Projections
Lila Valencia, Ph.D. Office: (512) 936-3542 Lila.Valencia@utsa.edu demographics.texas.gov @TexasDemography 16
