Insights into Texas Demographic Trends

Texas Demographic Data Users Conference May 22, 2014 Austin, Texas

TXSDC Update Estimates and Projections Updating software and reviewing data and methods Plans to develop web-based Further development of data access 2

TXSDC Update Demographic Report Series Migration Characteristics of migrants Social and Economic Aging Asian Births and Deaths Housing 3

Total Population and Components of Population Change in Texas, 1950-2012 Percent Change Due to Annual Percent Change -- 2.4 1.7 2.7 2.0 2.3 2.1 1.8 1.4 Numerical Change -- 1,868,483 1,617,053 3,032,461 2,757,319 3,865,310 4,293,741 915,235 387,397 Natural Increase -- 93.91 86.74 41.58 65.85 49.65 54.94 52.05 53.70 Net Year* 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2012 2013 Population 7,711,194 9,579,677 11,196,730 14,229,191 16,986,510 20,851,820 25,145,561 26,060,796 26,448,193 Migration -- 6.09 13.26 58.42 34.15 50.35 45.06 47.95 45.87 * All values for the decennial dates are for April 1st of the indicated census year. Values for 2012 and 2013 are for July 1 as estimated by the U.S. Census Bureau. Source: Derived from U.S. Census Bureau Estimates for dates indicated by the Texas State Data Center, University of Texas at San Antonio. Note: Residual values are not presented in this table. 4

Unemployment rate (percent) for Texas and the United States, 2007-2013 12 10 9.6 9.3 8.9 8.2 8.1 7.9 8 7.5 7.4 6.8 6.3 5.8 6 4.9 4.6 4.4 4 2 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Texas United States 5 Source: Texas Workforce Commission, Local area Unemployment Statistics Program, 2014.

Seven large cities in Texas are among the top 15 fastest growing cities in the U.S. 6

Four of the most populous cities in the U.S. are in Texas 7

Five of the 15 cities with the largest numeric growth in the U.S. are in Texas 8

Percent of Population Born in Texas, Counties, 2008-2012 Legend tl_2010_48_county10 PctNativeTXN Hansford Lipscomb Dallam Sherman Ochiltree 45-55% Moore Roberts Hartley Hemphill Hutchinson Wheeler Carson Oldham Potter Gray 56-60% Armstrong Randall Deaf Smith Collingsworth Donley 61-70% Briscoe Parmer Castro Hall Swisher Childress Hardeman Cottle 71-80% Wilbarger Hale Floyd Bailey Lamb Motley Wichita Foard Clay Hockley Red River Lamar 81-91% Montague Archer King Knox Grayson Baylor Crosby Cochran Lubbock Cooke Dickens Fannin Bowie Delta Haskell Titus Young Jack Denton Wise Yoakum Collin Franklin Hopkins Lynn Garza Kent Stonewall Throckmorton Morris Camp Upshur Hunt Terry Cass Rockwall Tarrant Palo Pinto Jones Wood Rains Van Zandt Henderson Dawson Marion Harrison Gaines Dallas Scurry Fisher Shackelford Parker Hood Borden Stephens Eastland Kaufman Gregg Nolan Johnson Smith Ellis Howard Andrews Callahan Mitchell Rusk Somervell Erath Comanche Martin Taylor Runnels Panola Navarro Hill Cherokee El Paso Coke Bosque Midland Glasscock Loving Anderson Winkler Coleman Ector Shelby Freestone Hamilton Mills Sterling Brown Culberson Nacogdoches Houston Angelina Sabine McLennan Ward Limestone Tom Green Hudspeth Crane San Reagan Coryell Concho Irion Leon Upton Falls Robertson Augustine Jasper Reeves San McCulloch Lampasas Saba Trinity Bell Madison Burnet Schleicher Newton Menard Jeff Davis Polk Milam Pecos Walker Tyler Crockett Mason Llano Brazos San Jacinto Williamson Grimes Sutton Kimble Burleson Blanco Hardin Lee Washington Gillespie Travis Montgomery Waller Austin Terrell Orange Jefferson Kerr Bastrop Val Verde Hays Liberty Edwards Presidio Kendall Brewster Fayette Harris Caldwell Real Comal Bandera Chambers Fort Bend Guadalupe Colorado Lavaca Bexar Galveston Gonzales Uvalde Medina Kinney Wharton Brazoria Wilson DeWitt Jackson Karnes Maverick Atascosa Zavala Frio Victoria Matagorda Goliad McMullen Calhoun La Dimmit Bee Live Oak Refugio San Patricio Salle Aransas Jim Wells Nueces Webb Duval Kleberg Jim Hogg Brooks Zapata Kenedy Starr Willacy Hidalgo Cameron 9 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-year sample, 2008-2012

Percent of Population that is Foreign Born, Texas Counties, 2008-2012 Legend tl_2010_48_county10 PctFB 0-5% 6-10% 11-20% 21-30% 31-41% 10 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-year sample, 2008-2012

Percent of the population age 5 and over that speaks Spanish at home and speaks English less than very well, Texas Counties, 2008- 2012 Legend tl_2010_48_county10 PctSpanEngLTVW 0-5% 5.1-10% 10.1-20% 20.1-35% 35.1-50% 11 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-year sample, 2008-2012

Percent of the population age 5 and over that speaks a language other than English at home, Texas Counties, 2008-2012 Legend tl_2010_48_county10 PCTLngOthrEng 0-10% 11-20% 21-40% 41-60% 61-96% 12 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-year sample, 2008-2012

Percent of Households with at Least One Person Over the Age of 64 Years, Texas Counties, 2008-2012 Legend tl_2010_48_county10 PctHHGT64 Hansford Lipscomb Dallam Sherman Ochiltree Moore Roberts Hartley Hemphill Hutchinson Wheeler Carson Oldham Potter Gray 13-20% Armstrong Randall Deaf Smith Collingsworth Donley 21-30% Briscoe Parmer Castro Hall Swisher Childress Hardeman Cottle Wilbarger Hale Floyd Bailey Lamb Motley 31-40% Wichita Foard Clay Hockley Red River Lamar Montague Archer King Knox Grayson Baylor Crosby Cochran Lubbock Cooke Dickens Fannin Bowie Delta Haskell 41-50% Titus Young Jack Denton Wise Yoakum Collin Franklin Hopkins Lynn Garza Kent Stonewall Throckmorton Morris Camp Upshur Hunt Terry Cass Rockwall Tarrant Palo Pinto Jones Wood Rains Van Zandt Henderson Dawson Marion Harrison Dallas Gaines Scurry Fisher Shackelford Parker Hood Borden 51-53% Kaufman Stephens Eastland Gregg Nolan Johnson Smith Ellis Andrews Callahan Howard Mitchell Rusk Somervell Erath Comanche Taylor Martin Panola Navarro Hill Cherokee Runnels El Paso Coke Bosque Midland Glasscock Loving Anderson Winkler Coleman Ector Shelby Freestone Hamilton Mills Sterling Brown Culberson Nacogdoches Houston Angelina Sabine McLennan Ward Limestone Tom Green Hudspeth Crane San Reagan Coryell Concho Irion Leon Upton Falls Robertson Augustine Jasper Reeves San McCulloch Lampasas Saba Trinity Bell Madison Burnet Schleicher Newton Menard Jeff Davis Polk Milam Pecos Walker Tyler Crockett Mason Llano Brazos San Jacinto Williamson Grimes Sutton Kimble Burleson Blanco Hardin Lee Washington Gillespie Travis Montgomery Waller Austin Terrell Orange Jefferson Kerr Bastrop Val Verde Hays Liberty Edwards Presidio Kendall Brewster Fayette Harris Caldwell Real Comal Bandera Chambers Fort Bend Guadalupe Colorado Lavaca DeWitt Bexar Galveston Gonzales Uvalde Medina Kinney Wharton Wilson Brazoria Jackson Karnes Maverick Atascosa Zavala Frio Victoria Matagorda Goliad McMullen Calhoun La Salle Dimmit Bee Live Oak Refugio San Patricio Aransas Jim Wells Webb Nueces Duval Kleberg Jim Hogg Brooks Zapata Kenedy Starr Willacy Hidalgo Cameron 13 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-year sample, 2008-2012

Trends in Educational Attainment in Texas by Race/Ethnicity High School Graduates and Above 100% 95% 90% 85% White 80% Black 75% Hispanic 70% Other 65% 60% 55% 50% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, Public Use Micro Sample, 2001-2011

Percent of the Civilian Labor Force (ages 25-64) by Educational Attainment for 2011, 2030 Using Constant Rates, and 2030 Using Trended Rates, Texas 40.0% 34.3% 35.0% 2011 ACS 31.3% 2030 Constant 29.9% 30.0% Percent of the Civilian Labor Force 2030 Trended 24.0% 25.0% 23.8% 22.1% 20.4% 20.1% 20.0% 18.7% 18.1% 15.0% 15.0% 11.8% 11.4% 9.8% 9.3% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Less than High School High School or Equivalent Some College / Associate Degree Bachelor's Degree Graduate or Professional Degree Educational Attainment These should be going DOWN These should be going UP Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year PUMS. Texas State Data Center, 2012 Vintage Population Projections, 0.5 Migration Scenario 15