Insights into Ukraine's Societal Evolution: Trends and Realities

Some changes in Ukraine society 5th UKRAINE REALITY CHECK May 24, 2017 Volodymyr Paniotto, General Director of KIIS, professor of NaUKMA

Problems of changes study 1) What do we study - the dynamics due to changes in the territory of the country or changes in people's minds? The percentage of those who would like Ukraine to join the EU 2013 February 2016 Difference September In all Ukraine 9,1 36,6 45,7 5,7 42,5 48,2 In Ukraine without Crimea and Donbass 3,4 Difference 2) The problem of migration accounting and weight of Donbass in our sampling 2

Wellbeing level 1994-2016 60 51.7 For 10 years, from 1998 to 2008, the poverty rate fell from 52% to 11%. After the global crisis, in 2008, the poverty rate increased and then fell to 9%. 2015 the poverty rate has increased again on the highest level for last 13 years. In 2016 the situation is stable . 50 47.2 40 30 28.4 17.8 17.5 20 17.1 17.7 10 11.4 9.8 9.7 0 We do not even have enough money for food 3

The health level in 2016 is the same as in 2013 " , ( ) 45.00% 40.50% 38.80% 38.60% 40.00% 35.60% 35.00% 31.40% 31.10% 31.40% 30.00% 28.10% 25.00% 25.50% 22.40% 20.00% 20.30% 21.30% 19.80% 19.20% 17.70% 17.70% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% 1995 1998 2001 2005 2009 2013 2015 2016 4

Dynamics of happiness in Ukraine (2001-2015) "Do you consider yourself a happy person?" Percent of those who happy 70 65 63.2 59.7 58.6 58.1 57.1 57 56.7 60 54.2 54.1 52.2 52 48.9 46.9 50 38.1 40 30 20 10 0 year 2001 year 2002 year 2003 year 2005 year 2006 year 2007 year 2008 year 2009 year 2010 year 2011 year 2012 year 2013 year 2014 year 2015 year 2016 5

The Impact of War on Happiness: the Case of Ukraine By Tom Coupe and Maksym Obrizan Kyiv School of Economics Using a difference-in-difference design, we find that the average level of happiness declined substantially in zones that experience war directly, with the effect of directly experiencing war on the happiness of an individual being roughly comparable to the loss of happiness a relatively well-off person would experience when he/she becomes a poor person. At the same time, despite the fact that the war in the East dominates the local media in Ukraine, respondents in other regions of Ukraine are basically as happy as they were before the war. 6

Modernization. The percentage of Internet users among the population 18+ 70 62 57 60 54 49 50 43 40 40 29 27 30 24 19 19 15 20 15 10 7 5 10 3 3 2 1 0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 7

Support of independence of Ukraine 2008-2016 8

Actual experience indicates a slight decrease of corruption spread in Ukraine Despite the growing perception of the corruption prevalence in different sectors, the share of corruption situations has decreased slightly as compared to 2011. Moreover, not only the prevalence of extortion, but also the use of personal connections and voluntary bribe offers to government officials has reduced. 2011 2015 43 39 26 22 15 13 10 7 Perceived Spread Experience of Voluntary Bribes Experience of Extortion Experience of Use of Personal Connections

STRESSFUL SITUATIONS IN THE LIVES OF THE UKRAINIANS, 2016 According to KIIS survey December 2016, 58% of participants experienced some stressful situation during the last year. Compared to the data of 2015 this percentage decreased by 5 percentage points (it was 64% last year), while the percentages of those who lost the belief in people, and of those who found themselves left with no livelihood slightly increased. The amount of those who became jobless decreased. The amount of those who did not experience any stressful situation increased by 3 percentage points (from 34% in 2015 to 37% in 2016). 11

Resume From 2015 to 2016: - the poverty level is the same - level of health has not changed - the level of happiness decreased slightly (but only at the expense of Donbass, in the rest of Ukraine has not changed), - the percentage of Internet users increases, - the level of corruption has decreased, - The level of stresessdecreased. In general, the situation has stabilized. Meanwhile, the majority believes that the country is going in the wrong direction (70% vs. 12%), corruption increased , reforms do not go. Most likely it is because of the work of the media (due to informational war and political struggle inside the country). In general situation in Ukraine is better than it seems. 12

The attitude of the EU, NATO, the Customs Union

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Imagine, please, that the referendum on whether Ukraine should join European UnionNATO is happening now. What is your choice? February 2017, % West Center South East UKRAINE For joining Against joining Not to participate Difficult to say TOTAL 75 10 49 21 37 45 17 50 49 28 7 11 9 23 11 8 19 100 9 10 100 12 100 100 100 15

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In your opinion, what direction of foreign policy should Ukraine take? , February 2017 Western Central South Eastern UKRAINE Accession the European Union Accession the Customs Union of Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Armenia Joining neither the European Union nor the Customs Union 76 47 33 14 47 1 5 30 35 14 18 34 26 37 28 5 14 11 14 11 Difficult to say 100 100 100 100 100 TOTAL 17

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Readiness of Ukrainian citizens to vote for accession to the EU: December 2014 - September 2016 (without occupied territories) 80% 70% 60% 55% 54% 52% 51% 51% 49% 49% 48% 50% 43% 42% 40% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Sept.13 Nov.13 Feb.14 Dec.14 Feb.15 May 15 Sept. Dec.15 Feb.16 May 16 Sept.16 19

Imagine, please, that the referendum on whether Ukraine should join NATO is happening now. What is your choice? February 2017, % Western Central South Eastern UKRAINE For joining 65 41 30 15 41 Against joining 13 22 53 54 32 Not to participate 6 12 8 22 11 Difficult to say 16 25 9 10 17 TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 20