Insights into Wheat and Cotton Market Trends and Production Analysis
Discover the current situation and outlook for wheat and cotton from Oklahoma State University. Explore data on ICE/US Dollar Index, world exports, forward contract prices, and more. Gain insights into world wheat production, harvest timelines, and export trends for hard wheat. Stay informed with valuable information on Oklahoma monthly average prices and KC Wheat contract prices.
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Presentation Transcript
Wheat and Cotton, Situation and Outlook Oklahoma State University
ICE/US Dollar Index: Weekly Nearest April 15 - Present
Percentage of World Exports 2019 2000 Wheat U.S. B.S. Corn U.S. B-U-A Soybeans U.S. Brazil Cotton U.S. Other India Brazil Wheat U.S. B.S. Corn U.S. B-U-A Soybeans U.S. Brazil Cotton U.S. Other India Brazil 27% 6% 14% 31% 67% 17% (2,0,15) 34% 52% (19,15,18) 58% 25% 37% 48% 38% 50% 1% 2% 36% 32% 11% 13%
Forward Contract Prices Wheat $4.31 -23 Jly $4.14 -40 Corn $3.50 -30 Dec Milo $3.25 -55 Dec $3.25 -55 Soybeans $8.04 -100 Nov Cotton $0.59 -0.03 Dec
1996-2000 Average Hard Wheat Exporters Exports Billion Bushels
1991-2000 Oklahoma Monthly Average Prices Starting in August, minus 4 cents per month storage costs Received is the average price received by Oklahoma wheat producers.
2015-2019 Average Hard Wheat Exporters Exports Billion Bushels
2010-2019 Oklahoma Monthly Average Prices Starting in August, minus 5 cents per month storage costs Received is the average price received by Oklahoma wheat producers.
World Wheat Production May 13% Jun 17% Apr 9% Mar 3% Jul 17% Feb 0% Jan 1% Dec 3% Nov 2% Oct 5% Aug 21% Sep 9% Percentage World Wheat Production by Month
Start of Harvest Mid-March End of Harvest January 2019/20 Wheat Production in Order of Harvest Time: (billion bushels)
KC Wheat Contract Price: Monthly ---Present High Ending Stocks Low Protein &/or TW
U.S Average Annual Wheat Price Marketing Year 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 23/24 24/25 25/26 26/27 27/28 28/29 $4.55 $4.90 UM Average Annual $4.72 $5.16 $5.00 $4.73 $4.86 $4.98 $5.08 $5.15 USDA Average Annual $4.72 $5.16 $5.31 $4.80 $4.90 $5.00 $5.00 $5.05 $5.10 $5.10 $5.15 $5.15
U.S. Wheat Situation U. S. Price Ending Stocks Year Production Consumption (Billion Bushels) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2.25 2.14 2.03 2.06 2.31 1.74 1.89 1.92 1.84 2.41 2.43 2.02 1.95 2.22 1.98 2.04 2.17 2.14 .718 .590 .752 .976 1.18 1.01 1.08 .940 .777 $7.77 $6.87 $5.99 $4.89 $3.89 $4.72 $5.16 $4.55 $4.90 25% 37% 43% 36% 7-YR Avg. 2.06 2.15 .901 $5.61
Russia 63%; Ukraine 25%, Kazakhstan 11% Black Sea Wheat Situation Ending Stocks Stocks To Use Production Consumption Year (Billion Bushels) 2.812 3.265 3.432 3.913 4.061 4.700 4.264 4.235 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2.327 3.245 3.558 3.750 4.200 4.665 4.067 4.189 0.384 0.400 0.560 0.431 0.593 0.581 0.407 0.391 14% 12% 16% 11% 15% 12% 10% 9% 7-YR Avg. 3.687 3.778 0.479 13%
Market News World record wheat production 28.3 bb Black Sea wheat production higher Russia +150 mb; Ukraine -100 mb; Kazakhstan + 100 mb Australia +150 mb U.S. Production and Ending Stocks lower Russia staggering out exports (-19% Feb) Russia attempting to sell wheat to Philippines
2015-2019 Average Cotton Production 5-year average-Million 480# Bales
2015-2019 Average Cotton Exports 5-year average-Million 480# Bales
2015-2019 Average Cotton Imports 5-year average-Million 480# Bales
World Cotton Situation Ending Stocks Year Production Consumption (Million Bales) 123.6 120.4 119.2 96.2 106.7 123.8 118.6 121.6 118.5 115.4 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 108.2 109.9 113.2 115.2 116.2 122.8 120.3 118.2 121.2 115.0 89.3 99.9 106.7 90.1 90.1 80.3 80.2 83.4 80.7 90.9 7-YR Avg.
U.S. Cotton Situation U. S. Price Ending Stocks Year Production Consumption (Million Bales) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 17.3 12.9 16.3 12.9 17.2 20.9 18.4 19.8 19.5 16.5 14.1 14.8 12.6 18.2 19.5 17.7 19.5 19.5 3.9 2.4 3.7 3.8 2.8 4.2 4.9 5.1 5.0 72.5 77.9 61.3 61.2 68.0 68.6 70.3 60.0 64.0 68.5 7-YR Avg. 16.6 16.2 3.7
CBT Cotton Contract Price: Monthly January 2000 to Present
Kims Observations World production has may have a larger impact on U.S. prices than U.S. production. The Black Sea region will continue to impact prices. Increased corn production and exports Need to maintain grain quality Potential weather problems There is excess grain Sell wheat at harvest No change in prices without weather problems.
