Insights on Age-Specific Fertility Rates & Birth Distribution
Dive into the world of age-specific fertility rates and birth distribution patterns, exploring the diverse factors influencing child-bearing behaviors. Discover how ASFRs are calculated and understand the significance of these rates in assessing fertility levels across different age groups. Unveil the variations in fertility patterns and gain valuable insights into population dynamics based on vital statistics data analysis.
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Presentation Transcript
MODULE 5 Online course on data analysis and report writing for civil registration based vital statistics AGE-SPECIFIC FERTILITY RATES 12 July to 10 September 2021
PATTERNS OF CHILD-BEARING ARE DIFFERENT BY AGE o These patterns have many drivers: Availability of family planning Cultural & Societal norms Costs of raising children Value of education
DISTRIBUTION OF BIRTHS BY AGE OF MOTHER Example from Fiji Vital Statistics report 2012-2017:
AGE-SPECIFIC FERTILITY RATES Age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) are the number of births occurring to mothers of a certain age group per 1,000 women in that age group in a given period of time. ASFR's are usually calculated for women aged 15-49 in each 5- year age group. The advantage of ASFRs is that they are not affected by differences in the age distribution among women of childbearing ages.
AGE-SPECIFIC FERTILITY RATES - CALCULATIONS Age-Specific Fertility Rates Age of Women (1) 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 Female Pop Number of Births Fertility Rate (4) = (3)/(2) x 1,000 (2) (3) 593,262 587,076 505.362 424,186 385,749 325,105 266,575 36,784 81,233 65,236 37,506 17,532 4,929 512 62.0 138.3 129.1 88.4 45.4 15.2 1.9
QUESTION: Which country has higher fertility? ASFRs ASFRs Age group 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 Country A 70.3 203.3 193.3 136.8 60.2 22.3 1.4 Country B 27.24 135.5 207.4 189 106.9 48.9 15.5 Age group 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 Country A Country B 70.3 203.3 193.3 136.8 60.2 22.3 1.4 27.2 135.5 207.4 189.0 106.9 48.9 15.5 Bad table example Good table example
ANSWER ASFRs are not affected by population structure. Higher ASFRs = higher fertility ASFRs Age group 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 Total Country A Country B 70.3 203.3 193.3 136.8 60.2 22.3 1.4 687.6 27.2 135.5 207.4 189.0 106.9 48.9 15.5 730.4
ASFRS FOLLOW A STANDARD PATTERN ASFRs start from zero at very young ages where women are not yet able to bear children, Rise until they peak sometime in women s twenties. Decline back to zero somewhere around 50 years of age. Variations in the pattern occur due to factors such as age at marriage, the prevalence of contraceptive use, etc.
ASFR COMPARISONS ACROSS 5 COUNTRIES Age-Specific Fertility Rates for 5 Countries 250 200 150 100 50 Source: U.S. Census Bureau s International Data Base 0 15-19 20-24 25-29 Haiti 30-34 India 35-39 40-44 45-49 U.S. China Kenya
ASFRS IN MEXICO OVER TIME Age-Specific Fertility Rates for Mexico 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 Source: U.S. Census Bureau s International Data Base 0 15-19 20-24 1980 25-29 30-34 35-39 2000 40-44 45-49 1990 2010
TOTAL FERTILITY RATE (TFR) ASFRs are good for representing fertility by age group, but difficult to use if: Comparing two different populations Examining a given population over time Furthermore, they are not an easily understood measure of fertility. We therefore usually talk about the total fertility rate (TFR), when discussing fertility. The TFR is the average number of children a woman would give birth to during her lifetime if she were to pass through her childbearing years experiencing the present-day age-specific fertility rates The TFR (for 5 year ASFRs) is calculated by adding up the age-specific fertility rates, multiplying this sum by 5 and dividing by 1,000 TFR = (Sum of ASFR x 5 ) / 1,000
CALCULATING TFR- EXAMPLE Calculation of Total Fertility Rate Age of Women (1) 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 Female Pop Number of Births Fertility Rate (4) = (3)/(2) x 1,000 (2) (3) 593,262 587,076 505,362 424,186 385,749 325,105 266,575 36,784 81,233 65,236 37,506 17,532 4,929 512 62.0 138.4 129.1 88.4 45.4 15.2 1.9 Sum of ASFRs 480.4 2.4 TFR
ASFRS WITH AGGREGATED DATA =??????? ?????? ?? ???? ??? ????? ?? ??? ? ????? ????? ?? ??? ? ?? ???????? x 1000 Example Average number of births from 2007-2011 was 55 for women aged 20-24 Midpoint is July 1, 2009. There were 300 women aged 20-24 on this date. ASFR of 20-24 year olds = (55/300)*1000 = 183.3 for the period 2007-2011
TEENAGE FERTILITY RATE The teenage fertility rate, or adolescent birth rate, refers to the number of births in a given period of time to females aged 15 19, divided by the number of all 15 19 year old females at the period midpoint. Equal to the ASFR for 15-19 year olds. Relevance to SDGs Adolescent birth rates are a key indicator in measuring the progress of SDG Goal 3: By 2030, reduce the global maternal mortality ratio to less than 70 per 100,000 live births . In the Pacific Adolescent births rates in 2007 were 61.3 for the Pacific Region, 48.3 for the world, 52.3 for developing regions, and 23 for developed regions
ASSIGNMENT 1. Calculate: Age specific fertility rates (ASFR) Total fertility rate (TFR) 2. Write a short paragraph to explain the ASFR and the TFR of your country
