Insights on Presidential Elections and Public Opinion - Fall 2016 Survey Analysis

Presidential Elections and Public Opinion Based on CSLI Survey Fall 2016 Dan Nataf Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues Professor, Political Science Anne Arundel Community College www2.aacc.edu/csli ddnataf@aacc.edu 410-777-2733

Todays focus Presidential contest: horse race based on national polling and key battleground states relevant to Electoral College Short and long-term factors affecting choice of candidates Appeal to certain demographic groups General mood of the people Impact of issues and concerns Impact of character vs. issues Future where will this election leave our political system

State of the Race: Horserace Clinton/Trump realclearpolitics.com

State of the Race: Electoral College with Toss-ups Clinton with 99 vote lead

State of the Race: Electoral College No Toss-ups Clinton s 70 vote lead less than Obama s 126 in 12 and 192 in 08 2012 Obama 332 Romney 206 2008 Obama -365 McCain - 173

Short vs. Long-term Factors Shaping Race Short-term - Cause of fluctuations in baseline Impact about 6-7 percent Campaign effects advertising, rallies, public outreach Events debates, revelatory tapes, emails, scandals, conventions Long-term establishes the baseline Clinton: 44-50 percent; Trump 38-44 percent Partisan composition of the electorate ratio of Dems, Reps, unaffiliated and loyalty to party s nominee Other aspects of the electorate turnout among key groups, impact of gender, education, marital status, age, income, race Mood of the country Candidate character appeal of a woman, businessman, etc. Issues addressed by candidates how these resonate with electorate

Focus on Long-term Factors CSLI Semi-annual Survey Anne Arundel County a little more conservative than the country overall About 2-5 percent less supportive of Democratic candidate than USA during Obama period. 2012 AA County 48.7 2008 AA County 48.2 Candidate 2012 USA 2008 USA Overall Fa 16 Overall Fa 16 no und./WV 51 40 51.1 52.9 Hillary Clinton (Dem) 34 42 47.2 45.7 48.8 50.2 Donald Trump (Rep) 5 1 6 1 Gary Johnson (Lib) Jill Stein (Green) 1.4 .7 1 .3 .5 .4 .7 .9 (includes Nader) 11 10 0 0 Undecided Wouldn t vote for either 101 99 Total

Presidential Job Approval Confirms Countys Small Conservative Lean Fall 2007 to Fall 2015

Race Tightens if Republicans Vote Own Party Rather Than Third Party or Undecided Candidate/Party Hillary Clinton Donald Trump Gary Johnson Jill Stein Undecided Wouldn t vote Total Democrat 73 8 1 1 9 8 100 Republican 9 62 8 0 10 11 100 Unaffiliated 33 30 7 5 18 8 101 Or if large percentage of undecided unaffiliated voters swing to Trump *Short-term effects have lessened the Clinton advantage that was up to 10+ points (when CSLI poll was in the field-Oct. 7-13) in some national polls to around 3 points now.

Party, Ideology and Presidential Choice Clinton Trump Johnson Stein Undeci ded 8 8 8 12 12 9 27 19 10 Wont vote 7 7 14 12 18 6 0 7 12 Dem Lib. Dem Mod. Dem Cons. Rep Lib. Rep Mod. Rep Cons. Unaffil Lib. Unaffil Mod Unaffil Cons. 84 72 61 23 13 5 40 35 19 2 11 12 54 43 79 7 28 60 0 1 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 16 1 12 7 0 14 4 0 Trump needs to appeal to moderate Republicans as well as unaffiliated moderates. Clinton needs to appeal especially to unaffiliated liberals.

Demographic Groups and Presidential Choices Gender Education Marital Status Age Race Income

Gender and Presidential Choice 50 46 45 38 40 34 35 29 30 25 20 15 12 10 9 9 8 10 5 2 1 1 0 Clinton Trump Johnson Stein Undecided Wouldn't vote Men Women Clinton with large lead among women; Trump with narrow lead among men;

Education and Presidential Choice 60 High turnout among those with low education might boost Trump 50 50 High turnout among highly educated voters would provide a substantial boost for Clinton 50 40 40 38 40 37 35 35 34 30 25 20 12 11 11 10 10 9 8 8 10 7 6 6 5 4 3 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 Clinton Trump Johnson Stein Undecided Wouldn't vote HS dip or less Some coll. 2 yr. deg. 4 yr. deg. Post-grad

Gender+Education and Presidential Choice Higher education lessens Trump s appeal among men 70 Higher education compounds with gender to gain support for Clinton; 58 60 50 42 40 37 40 36 34 30 30 17 20 10 0 Women NoBA Women BA+ Men NoBA Men BA+ Clinton Trump

Marital Status and Presidential Choice 60 Clinton advantage among single, divorced, widowed Trump benefits from traditional Republican support from those who are married 50 50 46 39 37 40 30 25 25 20 13 10 10 10 9 9 8 10 4 4 1 1 0 0 Clinton Trump Johnson Stein Undecided Wouldn't vote Single Married Other

Marital Status, Education and Gender: Impact on Presidential Choice 70 Trump key group married low ed males 61 60 Higher education and married status reinforces women s tendency to support Clinton Higher education and unmarried status overcomes male tendency to support Trump 60 54 52 48 50 44 41 40 35 35 33 30 30 30 24 18 Low education and married status shifts women to Trump 20 16 15 10 0 Clinton Trump

Age and Presidential Choice Trump and Clinton divide the 40-60 vote 50 46 43 43 45 41 41 40 37 34 35 32 32 29 29 28 30 24 23 25 22 21 19 20 16 15 15 10 10 6 5 4 4 5 0 18-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70+ Clinton Trump Third party Und./WV Johnson most influential among the under 40 group

Race and Presidential Choice Clinton holds big advantage among African- American voters, evenly divides the white vote 70 62 60 50 37 40 36 30 No third party African-American voters 20 15 15 10 9 8 10 6 1 0 0 0 Clinton Trump Johnson African-Am. Stein Whites Undecided Wouldn't vote

Income and Presidential Choice 80 73 Clinton support concentrated among low and high income groups 70 60 60 54 47 50 40 36 39 35 35 40 31 30 30 19 17 20 15 14 14 13 13 11 10 10 9 8 7 7 7 7 10 6 6 6 6 4 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 Under $30k $30-50K $50-75k $75-100k $100-150k $150-250k Over $250k Clinton Trump Johnson Stein Undecided Wouldn't vote

Candidate Character and Presidential Choice Open-ended question: What is the most important reason for supporting your preferred candidate? Positive character reasons Negative character reasons Policy reasons

Most important reason shaping choice Positive Reasons for Support Clinton Trump Experienced 18 1 Qualified 15 1 Outsider, change 0 10 Leadership 1 8 Temperament, frank, stable 6 3 Trusted 1 4 Total 41 27 Clinton Trump Overall 16 8 15 1 0 13 1 0 0 10 8 0 3 0 0 2 43 34 Negative Reasons for Support Lesser evil Dislike Trump Dislike Clinton Both bad HC lies, crooked Trump crazy, idiot Not qualified DT Not qualified HC Total Overall 9 8 5 4 4 2 33 13 7 6 5 4 4 2 1 42 Policy/Vision Reasons for Support Vision/plans Foreign policy, national security, military Economy Immigration Govt like business/less govt. Social issues Taxes Law and order Supreme Court Total Clinton 8 3 1 1 0 2 0 0 0 16 Trump 8 6 7 6 3 0 2 2 2 36 Overall 7 4 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 23 Clinton prevails on character which is mentioned by of all respondents Trump prevails on policy and vision

Mood of the Countys Residents Is county, state and nation headed in the right or wrong direction Is the county/state/national economy excellent or good? Is my personal financial situation getting better compared to the prospect for economic growth?

Right/Wrong Direction County, State, Nation: Fall 12 to Fall 16 Optimism for county and state Pessimism for country

Right/Wrong Direction Presidential Choice Clinton supporters are more optimistic at every level.

Optimism for county/state Pessimism for country

Clinton supporters again more optimistic than Trump voters

Econ. Gr. and. PFS: Democrats Democrats likely to say better than worse regarding economic growth and personal financial situation over next 12 months 35 31 30 26 25 25 23 20 17 15 12 11 11 10 10 5 0 0 Fall '14 Spring '15 Fall '15 Spring '16 Fall '16 Dem-PFS Dem-EG

Econ. Gr. Vs. PFS: Republicans Republicans more pessimistic regarding economic growth and personal financial situation over next 12 months 30 25 25 20 15 13 12 10 10 7 5 5 0 Fall '14 Spring '15 Fall '15 Spring '16 Fall '16 -5 -7 -5 -5 -5 -10 Rep-PFS Rep-EG

Economic Conditions - Applies Condition Clinton Trump Clinton- Trump Clinton voters less likely to be affected by negative economic situations. Taxes are too high in relation to the govt. services provided 43 52 34 8 31 26 9 12 79 61 40 20 27 32 6 12 -36 -9 -6 -12 4 -6 3 0 Wages or salaries are not rising as fast as the cost of living Hard to afford the cost of education Trump voters say a negative condition applies more often. Unable to afford healthcare or medicine during the last year Received a salary increase or other increase in income recently Hard to afford the cost of food and groceries Found a new or better job recently Facing the possibility of unemployment

Issues and Presidential Choice Agreement with various state/local proposals Issues that voters are most worried about Clinton as the Establishment choice; Trump as the anti-system insurgent

Agreement - Statements by Candidate Diversity, taxes and public sector pay are highlighted by Clinton voters Clinton Trump HC-DT Overall The Board of Education should treat transgender pupils on the basis of the gender with which they identify, not their birth gender. 59 13 46 36 I would support an increase in county property or income taxes if the added revenue went only to public schools. Salary increases for county workers should keep pace with or exceed that of private sector workers 36 12 24 25 46 28 18 35 County government should expand its mosquito spraying program. 40 39 1 40 Former county executive John Leopold should run again for public office 8 8 0 7 Local government should not promote much more development in the county Not all issues are divisive! 46 47 -1 41 44 5 Build another bridge to the Eastern Shore 43 47 -4 The county is currently doing enough to combat heroin use and addiction. 3 7 -4 The County already has enough public access points to the Bay - no need to add more. 14 21 -7 18 Is this a Hogan/Republican reaction? Change the start of the school year until after Labor Day 42 73 -31 56

How Much Do You Worry About Not at N.A. Total Only a little A fair amount Great deal all 58 58 55 53 46 46 42 39 35 34 9 9 8 8 7 11 12 12 16 14 20 15 16 21 20 21 21 23 27 35 22 20 24 22 33 18 24 25 30 32 19 30 30 26 19 0 1 1 2 1 1 1 2 2 2 4 2 1 7 0 100 100 100 101 101 101 100 101 100 100 101 100 100 101 100 The rising cost of a college education Our nation s ability to confront terrorism The financial burdens of retirement The tendency for corporations to send jobs overseas Race relations Illegal immigration The decline of America as a world power Climate change, extreme weather, sea level rise Bullying in our schools (k-12) The need for ever increasing skills to obtain or keep a good job Over-regulation of business Discrimination against gays, lesbians or transgendered people Difficulties for women to get ahead Impact of free trade Crime in my neighborhood 16 18 20 12 12 24 19 20 16 26 33 28 26 25 20

Worries: Clinton-Trump Trump supporters worried about America s prominence, combatting terrorism, illegal immigration and business regulation. Clinton supporters much more worried about climate change, women, LGBT, race relations

Final Thoughts Factors Shaping Voters Choices The Establishment vs. the Insurgent Clinton can work within the existing political system Clinton Trump Overall HC-DT Item 89 39 52 71 83 81 79 37 76 60 21 45 67 81 79 86 51 91 77 30 50 62 79 75 81 39 82 29 18 7 4 2 2 -7 -14 -15 The ability of the candidate to work with Congress The candidate s personal background is appealing The candidate s ability to relate to people like yourself My dislike for the other candidate I trust the candidate to make the right decisions The need to fill Supreme Court vacancies The candidate has the right ideas for improving the economy The candidate s choice for vice president The candidate will better defend America s national interests 29 77 57 -48 I want a candidate who can shake up the status quo Trump as an anti-system candidate who can shake up the status quo

The future Republican Party ideologically split, temperamentally unclear Can it govern without an internal consensus? If House of Representatives is retained Will Freedom Caucus and Hastert rule push it to appeal to angry and polarized base Will non Freedom Caucus try to find compromises with Senate/President Democratic Party less internally polarized but can it deliver? Clinton wins with Democratic Congress will promises be kept? Clinton wins without Democratic Congress will radicalism grow? Clinton loses split Congress deep reassessment Clinton loses Republicans keep Congress - deeper reassessment