Insights on US Monetary Policy Trends and Economic Indicators
Discover a collection of visual data presentations covering various aspects of US monetary policy, core inflation rates, GDP analysis, and more. Gain valuable insights into historical trends and future projections in the economic landscape. Explore the nuances of key economic indicators and their impact on the financial world.
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Presentation Transcript
Perspectives on US Monetary Policy Richard Clarida
Core Inflation US UK EZ CA 6.0 5.0 US CA 4.0 EZ 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 2016-01-01 2016-03-01 2016-05-01 2016-07-01 2016-09-01 2016-11-01 2017-01-01 2017-03-01 2017-05-01 2017-07-01 2017-09-01 2017-11-01 2018-01-01 2018-03-01 2018-05-01 2018-07-01 2018-09-01 2018-11-01 2019-01-01 2019-03-01 2019-05-01 2019-07-01 2019-09-01 2019-11-01 2020-01-01 2020-03-01 2020-05-01 2020-07-01 2020-09-01 2020-11-01 2021-01-01 2021-03-01 2021-05-01 2021-07-01 2021-09-01 2021-11-01 2022-01-01 2022-03-01 2022-05-01 2022-07-01 2
Dallas Fed Trimmed Mean PCE September 2021 5.00 4.50 4.00 1994 Rate Cycle 2004 Rate Cycle 2015 Rate Cycle 3.50 2022 Rate Cycle 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 1992-12-01 1993-08-01 1994-04-01 1994-12-01 1995-08-01 1996-04-01 1996-12-01 1997-08-01 1998-04-01 1998-12-01 1999-08-01 2000-04-01 2000-12-01 2001-08-01 2002-04-01 2002-12-01 2003-08-01 2004-04-01 2004-12-01 2005-08-01 2006-04-01 2006-12-01 2007-08-01 2008-04-01 2008-12-01 2009-08-01 2010-04-01 2010-12-01 2011-08-01 2012-04-01 2012-12-01 2013-08-01 2014-04-01 2014-12-01 2015-08-01 2016-04-01 2016-12-01 2017-08-01 2018-04-01 2018-12-01 2019-08-01 2020-04-01 2020-12-01 2021-08-01 2022-04-01 3
8.0 Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker September 2021 7.0 6.0 2004 Rate Cycle 2015 Rate Cycle 5.0 2022 Rate Cycle 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 4
Real GDP vs CBO Potential GDP 10.0000 9.9000 9.8000 9.7000 9.6000 log scale 9.5000 9.4000 9.3000 9.2000 9.1000 9.0000 1992-01-01 1992-09-01 1993-05-01 1994-01-01 1994-09-01 1995-05-01 1996-01-01 1996-09-01 1997-05-01 1998-01-01 1998-09-01 1999-05-01 2000-01-01 2000-09-01 2001-05-01 2002-01-01 2002-09-01 2003-05-01 2004-01-01 2004-09-01 2005-05-01 2006-01-01 2006-09-01 2007-05-01 2008-01-01 2008-09-01 2009-05-01 2010-01-01 2010-09-01 2011-05-01 2012-01-01 2012-09-01 2013-05-01 2014-01-01 2014-09-01 2015-05-01 2016-01-01 2016-09-01 2017-05-01 2018-01-01 2018-09-01 2019-05-01 2020-01-01 2020-09-01 2021-05-01 2022-01-01 5
Output Gap Actual minus CBO Potential 0.0400 0.0200 0.0000 -0.0200 2022 Rate Cycle -0.0400 -0.0600 -0.0800 -0.1000 2015 Rate Cycle September 2021 1994 Rate Cycle 2004 Rate Cycle -0.1200 1992-01-01 1992-10-01 1993-07-01 1994-04-01 1995-01-01 1995-10-01 1996-07-01 1997-04-01 1998-01-01 1998-10-01 1999-07-01 2000-04-01 2001-01-01 2001-10-01 2002-07-01 2003-04-01 2004-01-01 2004-10-01 2005-07-01 2006-04-01 2007-01-01 2007-10-01 2008-07-01 2009-04-01 2010-01-01 2010-10-01 2011-07-01 2012-04-01 2013-01-01 2013-10-01 2014-07-01 2015-04-01 2016-01-01 2016-10-01 2017-07-01 2018-04-01 2019-01-01 2019-10-01 2020-07-01 2021-04-01 2022-01-01 6
Unemployment Gap Actual minus CBO Nairu September 2021 10.00 2015 Rate Cycle 1994 Rate Cycle 2004 Rate Cycle 8.00 6.00 4.00 2.00 2022 Rate Cycle 0.00 -2.00 1992-10-01 1993-07-01 1994-04-01 1995-01-01 1995-10-01 1996-07-01 1997-04-01 1998-01-01 1998-10-01 1999-07-01 2000-04-01 2001-01-01 2001-10-01 2002-07-01 2003-04-01 2004-01-01 2004-10-01 2005-07-01 2006-04-01 2007-01-01 2007-10-01 2008-07-01 2009-04-01 2010-01-01 2010-10-01 2011-07-01 2012-04-01 2013-01-01 2013-10-01 2014-07-01 2015-04-01 2016-01-01 2016-10-01 2017-07-01 2018-04-01 2019-01-01 2019-10-01 2020-07-01 2021-04-01 2022-01-01 7
Inertial Taylor-Type Policy Rules Signaled Lift Off in by Q3 2021 5.0 4.5 Prescribed Federal Funds Rate 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Taylor Rule Federal Funds Rate 8
Michigan Inflation Survey 5y (red) and 1y4y (blue) 6.0 1y 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1y 4y 1.0 0.0 1990 1990 1991 1992 1992 1993 1994 1994 1995 1996 1996 1997 1998 1998 1999 2000 2000 2001 2002 2002 2003 2004 2004 2005 2006 2006 2007 2008 2008 2009 2010 2010 2011 2012 2012 2013 2014 2014 2015 2016 2016 2017 2018 2018 2019 2020 2020 2021 2022 9
5y Breakeven Inflation 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00 -1.00 -2.00 -3.00 10
Appendix 11
NY Fed Underlying Inflation Index 6 September 2021 2015 Rate Cycle 1994 Rate Cycle 2004 Rate Cycle 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 1/1/1995 9/1/1995 5/1/1996 1/1/1997 9/1/1997 5/1/1998 1/1/1999 9/1/1999 5/1/2000 1/1/2001 9/1/2001 5/1/2002 1/1/2003 9/1/2003 5/1/2004 1/1/2005 9/1/2005 5/1/2006 1/1/2007 9/1/2007 5/1/2008 1/1/2009 9/1/2009 5/1/2010 1/1/2011 9/1/2011 5/1/2012 1/1/2013 9/1/2013 5/1/2014 1/1/2015 9/1/2015 5/1/2016 1/1/2017 9/1/2017 5/1/2018 1/1/2019 9/1/2019 5/1/2020 1/1/2021 9/1/2021 5/1/2022 12
Employment Cost Index 6.0 5.0 2004 Rate Cycle 2015 Rate Cycle September 2021 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 2002-01-01 2002-06-01 2002-11-01 2003-04-01 2003-09-01 2004-02-01 2004-07-01 2004-12-01 2005-05-01 2005-10-01 2006-03-01 2006-08-01 2007-01-01 2007-06-01 2007-11-01 2008-04-01 2008-09-01 2009-02-01 2009-07-01 2009-12-01 2010-05-01 2010-10-01 2011-03-01 2011-08-01 2012-01-01 2012-06-01 2012-11-01 2013-04-01 2013-09-01 2014-02-01 2014-07-01 2014-12-01 2015-05-01 2015-10-01 2016-03-01 2016-08-01 2017-01-01 2017-06-01 2017-11-01 2018-04-01 2018-09-01 2019-02-01 2019-07-01 2019-12-01 2020-05-01 2020-10-01 2021-03-01 2021-08-01 2022-01-01 13
PCE Inflation 14.0 headline 1994 Rate Cycle 12.0 2004 Rate Cycle 2015 Rate Cycle September 2021 10.0 8.0 6.0 core 4.0 2.0 0.0 -2.0 -4.0 1960-01-01 1961-04-01 1962-07-01 1963-10-01 1965-01-01 1966-04-01 1967-07-01 1968-10-01 1970-01-01 1971-04-01 1972-07-01 1973-10-01 1975-01-01 1976-04-01 1977-07-01 1978-10-01 1980-01-01 1981-04-01 1982-07-01 1983-10-01 1985-01-01 1986-04-01 1987-07-01 1988-10-01 1990-01-01 1991-04-01 1992-07-01 1993-10-01 1995-01-01 1996-04-01 1997-07-01 1998-10-01 2000-01-01 2001-04-01 2002-07-01 2003-10-01 2005-01-01 2006-04-01 2007-07-01 2008-10-01 2010-01-01 2011-04-01 2012-07-01 2013-10-01 2015-01-01 2016-04-01 2017-07-01 2018-10-01 2020-01-01 2021-04-01 2022-07-01 14
