Integrated Water Management Solutions for Modern Systems

Modeling Portfolio Solutions for Water Management Jay R. Lund Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of California - Davis CaliforniaWaterBlog.com

Modeling Portfolio Solutions EGU2020-1806 | Displays | HS5.1.2 | Highlight Modeling portfolio solutions for modern water systems with uncertain changes Jay R. Lund Wed, 06 May, 16:15 18:00 | D178 By historical standards, modern water systems have achieved unprecedented successes in supporting public health and economic prosperity, while diminishing threats to the environment and supporting various social objectives. These accomplishments are imperfectly spread across the globe and face important challenges for the future. This presentation will review how the successes of today s portfolio approach to water management have integrated various water management technologies and institutions to provide this unprecedented performance, and the prospects and challenges to continuing and expanding these successes. Prospects for expanding these successes to the impoverished regions and continuing these successes with changes in climate and demographics are discussed. System analysis is seen as essential for providing guidance for continuing and managing the success and failures of integrated water management technologies and institutions. The construction of models to improve and inform difficult societal discussions on water is essential for their success. 2

What is Portfolio Management? 1. Integrated use of a diverse range of actions: Supplies (surface water, groundwater, reuse) Demands (various) Often mixes acting institutions (water users plus local, regional, state, federal governments) 2. Lower costs, more adaptable, better multi-benefit performance 3. Adjust with time, conditions, technology, and problems 4. Integration needs more analytical and management effort 5. Adjustments rebalance local, regional, state, and federal actions over time adaptive management 3

Portfolio Elements Multiple barrier portfolios for waterborne diseases Multiple-barriers Infrastructure 1. Banned/regulated chemicals and activities 2. Source protection: Rivers, lakes, reservoirs, groundwater 3. Drinking water treatment Multiple Accountability Local water utility, elected boards Public health agencies State regulators 4. Distribution system Federal regulators 5. Public health system Professional societies Universities, NGOs, media What would portfolios look like for ecosystem management? Managing portfolios across sectors? 4

Portfolio Successes in California Problem Grade Explanation A- expand collaborations. Mostly great success, illustrated by recent drought. Still room for further improvement and to Urban water Good successes, but more difficult future. Opportunities to benefit from expanded collaborations with urban, flood, rural drinking water, and ecosystem interests. Agricultural water Floods B- Good history of portfolio development and use. Lacks steady funding and attention outside of emergency management. Small communities remain problematic. C+ Band-aid approaches to a more systemic problem. Problem is relatively cheap to address, but wickedly hard to effectively organize and fund. Rural drinking water Ecosystems D+ Generally absent or poor development or use of portfolio or other active management approaches. Poor development and integration of science. Waterfowl management is the most advanced and successful. D Improving slowly, particularly for water quality. Worsening water quality in agricultural areas is a major challenge. Major opportunities with 2014 groundwater legislation. State needs a common technical groundwater program. Groundwater C Slow improvements. Stewardship Council plan is a potential foundation, but efforts to integrate efforts across agencies are slow to develop; meanwhile ecosystems decline and water demands rise. Delta C Steadily improving in urban regions, with room for improvement. Rural regions will be challenged much more by SGMA, which also can help structure opportunities. Regional integration Interagency integration C+ Largely absent among state agencies, isolated to a few sometimes excellent examples. Disintegration disrupts developing a common understanding of problems and solutions. D+ 5

Elements of Successful Portfolios 1. Desperation realization there is no silver bullet People resort to portfolios when simpler solutions fail 2. Institutional support and organization legal and political, financial bases are important 3. Sound analysis and modeling Analysis must help convince diverse groups to participate 4. Adaptability as events and problems unfold Evolve with failures 6

Modeling for Successful Portfolios Modeling supports policy and management discussions and implementation. 1. Portfolio system modeling should: 1. Include very diverse portfolio elements 2. Explicitly consider of reliability 3. Integration of diverse portfolio elements (feedbacks) 4. Optimization can show promising portfolio composites, adaptations, and sensitivities 2. Improving modeling? 1. Will never be perfect 2. Model, data, documentation and availability 3. What is proper institutional direction for modeling? 7

Good California Examples 1. Metropolitan Water District of Southern California 2. East Bay Municipal Utility District 3. Santa Clara Valley Water Agency All urban agencies that mix multiple water sources, storage, demand management, and water trades over a range of wet and dry events. 8

Conclusions 1. Water success = Portfolio management in California 2. Most portfolios are local/regional in planning and finance 3. State and Federal governments can help 4. State interagency actions are most important/difficult 5. Coming changes climate, SGMA, ecosystems - require more/better portfolio management 6. Make small and large incremental improvements 7. Modeling helps in planning, policy, and operations 9

Further Readings Lund (2019), Sustaining integrated portfolios for managing water in California, CaliforniaWaterBlog.com Lund (2019), A water portfolio planning report card for California, CaliforniaWaterBlog.com Lund et al. (2018) , "Lessons from California's 2012-2016 Drought," JWRPM, Oct. 2018 Pinter, et al. The California Water Model: Resilience through Failure, Hydrological Processes, Iss. 12, 2019