Intergenerational Transfers in Spain: Long-Term Analysis
Explore the evolution of intergenerational transfers in Spain from 1960 to 2012, discussing historical data, NTA estimates, and political changes. This paper examines the impact of the welfare state and demographic transition.
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Intergenational Intergenational transfers transfers in (1960 (1960- -2012) in Spain Spain in 2012) in the the long long- -run run Alfonso Herranz-Lonc n (University of Barcelona) Guadalupe Souto-Nieves (Autonomous University of Barcelona) Sergio Espuelas Barroso (University of Barcelona) Gemma Abio (University of Barcelona) Concepci Patxot-Cardoner(University of Barcelona)
Data First HBS in Spain was carried out in 1958, but very poor data for NTA (addressed to know the consumption patterns of the average Spanish household, hence not representative of the whole population). HBS was carried out again in 1964 and 1973, with a better sample design and much more information. Unfortunately, microdata are missing. HBS design was significantly improved in 1980 and 1990, and adapted to EEC recommendations. Microdata of these two waves was digitized by Universidad Carlos III and is now available for researchers. Important to have into account pol tical changes in Spain after 1975 (end of the dictatorship and starting of profunds changes in socioeconomic structures along the eighties).
This paper: Approaches the changes in the system of intergenerational flows in Spain in the long-term, for the period for which HBS are available (estimates so far for 1980, 1990) and compared to results for 2000 and 2012 Discusses if historical statistics and informed assumptions can be the basis for NTA estimates for periods before the earliest HBS (very preliminary estimate for 1960) would allow observing the impact of the whole process of construction of the welfare state and the whole demographic transition.
Important Political changes in Spain after 1975: end of the dictatorship and starting of profunds changes in socioeconomic structures along the eighties
1970 33.9M 1980 37.7M 1990 39.2M 2050 43.6M 2020 46.8M 2000 40.8M
HBS HBS- -based based NTA NTA estimates estimates for for Spain Spain Spanish HBS: 1958, 1964, 1973-74, 1980-81, 1990-91 and continuous HBS since 1997: oSufficient coverage only since 1964. oMicrodata available only since 1973-74. oSufficient individual information only since 1980-81. The standard NTA methodology can only be applied since 1980-81.
Per capita labor income (euros 2012) No significant changes for younger workers labor income until 2012. 30 000 25 000 20 000 Labour income increases remarkably for workers aged 30-55 between 1980-2000. 15 000 10 000 5 000 In 2012 the effects of the Great recession are evident (older workers are much less affected). 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 1980 1990 2000 2012
Per capita total consumption (euros 2012) 20 000 18 000 Change in the age profile s shape: more consumption of the elderly, especially with the Great Recession 16 000 14 000 12 000 10 000 8 000 6 000 4 000 2 000 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 1980 1990 2000 2012
private consumption public consumption 16 000 9 000 8 000 14 000 7 000 12 000 6 000 10 000 5 000 8 000 4 000 6 000 3 000 4 000 2 000 2 000 1 000 0 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 1980 1990 2000 2012 1980 1990 2000 2012 Significant increase of the public consumption on the both extremes of the lifecycle (education and health, respectively). Increases in private consumption are very low for the young, and more important for the elderly, particularly in 2012 (with the Great Recession)
Per capita Life Cycle Deficit (euros 2012) 20 000 Significant increase of the LCD, both for the young and the elderly. 15 000 10 000 5 000 Surplus increased, but reduced with the Great Recession (and the age range moved to the right) 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 -5 000 -10 000 -15 000 1980 1990 2000 2012
The financing sources of LCD (euros 2012) TG (net) 15 000 Significant increase for the young and, particularly, for the elderly (2012!) 10 000 5 000 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 At once, increase of taxes and social contributions for working ages (stopped with the Great Recession) -5 000 -10 000 1980 1990 2000 2012
The financing sources of LCD (euros 2012) TG TF 15 000 15 000 10 000 10 000 5 000 5 000 0 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 -5 000 -5 000 -10 000 -10 000 1980 1990 2000 2012 1980 1990 2000 2012 Strong increase of TF for ages 15-25 (high education)
NTA for the pre-HBS period? Data available in several sources (early incomplete- HBS, population censuses, government education and health surveys, etc.). Need to increase the number of assumptions (specially on the age distribution of labour income and consumption). Difficulty to estimate ABR and TF. Still research in progress.
Life cycle deficit and its components, per capita, 1960 Life cycle deficit and its components, per capita, 1960- -2012 (euros 2012) 2012 (euros 2012) Labour Income Consumption 30000 20000 18000 25000 16000 14000 20000 12000 15000 10000 8000 10000 6000 4000 5000 2000 0 0 0 3 6 9 12151821242730333639424548515457606366697275788184 0 3 6 9 12151821242730333639424548515457606366697275788184 1960 1980 2000 2012 1960 1980 2000 2012 Life cycle deficit 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 -5000 -10000 -15000 0 3 6 9 12151821242730333639424548515457606366697275788184 1960 1980 2000 2012
Main Main findings findings Gradual increase in the importance of government transfers as reallocation mechanism (welfare state s consolidation) Gradual increase of the importance of the elderly in the size of total reallocations. Government transfer bias towards sustaining the elderly s income (poverty risk tends to be concentrated in families with dependent children).
People at risk of poverty or social exclusion by age in Spain People at risk of poverty or social exclusion by age in Spain 45.0 Picture in 2018 is completely different from 2005: the young have been particularly affected by the Great Recession. % of population in risk of poverty or 40.0 35.0 30.0 social exclusion 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 less than 18 18-24 25-54 55-64 65+ Source: Eurostat, 2020
People at risk of poverty by type of household in Spain People at risk of poverty by type of household in Spain 25.0 Careful!!! 19.2 20.0 Poverty tends to concentrate in households with children along the last decade: 15.0 10.6 10.0 9.8 8.0 5.0 It is time to re-think the reallocation system and, particularly, the welfare state 0.0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Households without dependent children Households with dependent children Source: Eurostat, 2020
