International Tourism Recovery Forecast 2022-2025
Forecast of international visitor arrivals and spending for 30 countries, including key messages, assumptions, and market return details for New Zealand's tourism recovery. The phased process over four years aims to reach 95.2% of pre-COVID arrivals and 93% of visitor spend by May 2025.
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Presentation Transcript
Forecast of International Visitors/$ Returning YE May 2022-2025 TECNZ s arrival and visitor spend forecasts for 30 countries based on research and assumptions noted below. The forecasts form a roadmap for NZ s international tourism recovery on a market basis and are based on no self-isolation requirement for visitors. Assumptions: Visitor Market Return: Airline connectivity and IATA forecasts Demand from offshore wholesale agents/clients Quarantine Free Travel (QFT) Removal of pre-departure tests from source countries by July 2022 Removal of arrival RAT or PCR testing for visitors on arrival in NZ by July 2022 Propensity to travel NZ and Australia outbound travel trends Return of cruise travel by Oct 2022 Economic recovery from source markets Interest in NZ based on COVID management, high vaccination rates and global reputation Geo-political/economic status in source markets NZ shifts to COVID as a endemic health condition China market airline re-connectivity could take time Australia from 13 April 2022 USA/Canada from 2 May 2022 UK/Europe from 2 May 2022 Asia from 2 May 2022 China from 1 Jan 2023 2022 NZ visitor season starts 1 Oct 2022. All countries can return from 31 July 2022. Spreadsheets showing return on a per country basis over 4 years are available on our website or contact our office. Source: TECNZ updated 17 May 2022
Summary: Forecast of International Visitors/$ Returning YE May 2022-2025 Key message The return of pre-COVID visitor numbers and spend will be a phased process over a period of 4 years (2026). By YE May 2025 TECNZ forecasts 95.2% of annual arrivals will return and 93% of visitor spend. Noting, China will be one of the last markets to return (2023 and 2024). They were NZ s second largest visitor market and a high visitor spend traveller. Arrivals (000 s): By YE May 2023 annual number of arrivals 2,025,090 = 59.8% By YE May 2024 annual number of arrivals 2,794,399 = 82.6% By YE May 2025 annual number of arrivals 3,221,089 = 95.2% Visitor Spend ($M): By YE May 2023 annual visitor spend $6,948 billion = 57% By YE May 2024 annual visitor spend $9,806 billion = 80% By YE May 2025 annual visitor spend $11,356 billion = 93% TECNZ has forecast annual visitor arrivals and visitor spend on the key 30 visitor markets Stats NZ used to report on pre-COVID March 2020. Source: TECNZ updated 17 May 2022
International Tourism Recovery Plan 2022-2025 Jul-Sep 2022 Apr-Jun 2022 Oct-Dec 2022 Border Opening Jan-Mar 2022 Jan-Mar 2023 Market Return Apr Australia May Reality market will not travel till Oct 2022 US, Canada May China, Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong, South Korea, Japan China not expected to travel till Jan 2023 May UK, Germany, France, The Netherlands, all Europe (Two flights) Reality market will not travel till Oct 2022 Long-haul markets (all markets excluding Australia) traditionally do not travel until 1 October for the start of the NZ visitor season through to 30 April Source: TECNZ updated 17 May 2022
NZ International Tourism Recovery Roadmap (No. Arrivals 000s and % Recovery) Market recovery based on Australia from 13 Apr 2022, USA from 2 May 2022, Asia from 2 May 2022, UK/Europe from 2 May 2022 and China from 1 Jan 2023 By YE May 2025, total annual visitor arrivals 95.2% of pre-COVID arrivals (3,221,089). Noting long-haul markets don t normally travel till 1 Oct for a NZ season Pre COVID May 22 May 23 May 24 May 25 Assumptions: Australia Airline connectivity and IATA forecasts Demand from offshore wholesale agents/clients Quarantine Free Travel (QFT) Removal of pre-departure tests from source countries Removal of arrival RAT or PCR testing for visitors on arrival in NZ Propensity to travel NZ and Australia outbound travel trends Economic recovery from source markets Interest in NZ based on COVID management, high vaccination rates and global reputation Digital passports for international travel (tba) Geo-political/economic status in source markets NZ shifts to COVID as a endemic health condition Kiwis sentiment to welcoming back visitors 1,491,252 1,118,439 (75%) 223,688 (90%) 1,342,127 (90%) 1,342,127 (15%) USA 347,629 (65%) 225,959 295,485 330,248 (95%) 0 (85%) (0%) China 328,145 0 295,331 (85%) 65,629 (20%) (0%) 213,294 (65%) UK 223,102 (85%) 0 189,637 ( 0%) 145,016 211,947 (95%) (65%) Germany 91,067 (95%) (65%) ( 0%) 86,514 0 (85%) (75%) (80%) 77,407 59,194 Japan 90,326 (90%) (45%) 40,647 81,293 72,261 ( 0%) 0 South Korea (45%) (90%) 73,494 0 65,328 81,660 (0%) 36,747 (80%) India 67,395 33,698 (20%) (50%) (0%) 13,479 (70%) 47,177 0 Singapore 60,932 (0%) (70%) 57,885 51,792 (95%) 42,652 0 (85%) Taiwan 49,179 0 (0%) 22,131 (45%) (80%) 39,343 44,261 (90%) Hong Kong 51,807 (80%) ( 0%) 0 (50%) 41,446 46,626 25,904 (90%) France 39,507 33,581 (85%) (95%) (65%) 25,680 31,606 0 ( 0%) The Netherlands 29,384 0 (65%) (85%) 24,976 ( 0%) 19,100 (95%) 27,915 Source: TECNZ Forecast based on Stats NZ IVA Top 30 Countries Annual International Arrivals as at YE March 2020, updated 17 May 2022
3,221,089 2,794,399 2,025,090 Arrivals: Australia from 13 Apr 2022 USA from 2 May 2022 Asia from 2May 2022 (excludes China) UK/Europe from 2 May 2022 China from 1 Jan 2023 (slow start) 235,499 Source: TECNZ Forecast based on Stats NZ IVA Top 30 Countries Annual International Arrivals as at YE March 2020, updated 17 May 2022
93% 80% 57% Source: TECNZ Forecast based on Stats NZ IVA Top 30 Countries Annual International Arrivals as at YE March 2020, updated 17 May 2022
