Lessons on Holy Communion: Bread of Life & Feeding of the 5,000
Holy Communion, Bread of Life, Bible Stories, Jesus, Eucharist
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The economics of the Syrian crisis in neighboring countries The case of Lebanon Anda DAVID Mohamed Ali MAROUANI Charbel NAHAS Bj rn NILSSON FEMISE Annual Conference Casablanca, 29-30 April 2017 Mohamed Ali MAROUANI
Motivation Syrian crisis in Lebanon: Lower Exports + Massive influx of refugees, concentrated in the poorest regions Focus on the humanitarian aspects of refugees (Betts and Collier, 2017) Other consequences: economic, political, social No economic assessment of the impact on neighboring countries (except labor issues) Lynch and Brand (2017) on political aspects Mohamed Ali MAROUANI
In neighboring countries fear that refugees will remain Provide minimal incentives? State inactivity: pressure on municipalities and power transmitted to International organizations (Mourad, 2017) Preventing refugees from participating fully in the economy is inefficient. Mohamed Ali MAROUANI
Economic and social issues: jobs, income, social services, infrastructure Impact of the nature of foreign support (consumption VS investment) Our paper: general equilibrium perspective: impact on the economy, jobs, income (Lebanese and Syrians) and emigration Mohamed Ali MAROUANI
Microeconomic Literature The case of Miami and the Mariel Boatlift (Card, 1990) the arrival of Cuban refugees had no impact on unemployment and wages in Miami Negative impacts on native s employment outcomes Using the case of the 1962 repatriates from Algeria (Hunt, 1992) and the mass arrival of German expellees (Braun and Mahmoud, 2011) Mohamed Ali MAROUANI
Literature on the current Syrian refugees crisis Del Carpio and Wagner (2015) Negative developments for some Turkish workers (informal sector, agricultural sector, low-educated and female workers) and positive for others (high-skilled, formal sector) Change in the composition of employment Fakih and Ibrahim (2016): no impact on employment rates, unemployment rates and labor market participation in Jordan. Mohamed Ali MAROUANI
Lebanon Context High growth between 2007 and 2010 (capital inflows) High deficit in the current account (25% of GDP) strong need for external financing Capital inflows: depend on oil prices and current security and political environment in the region Strong deterioration of the internal political situation since 2011 and Syrian crisis average annual increase of GDP capped at 2% Mohamed Ali MAROUANI
Syrian crisis 2006 war with Israel Paris II conference exceptional inflows Mohamed Ali MAROUANI
Syrian crisis Mohamed Ali MAROUANI
Syrian crisis 1,200,000 refugees were estimated to have been living in Lebanon in 2015 Refugees represent 30% of the population (Turkey - 3.3%) 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Lebanese (2011) Foreigners (2011) Syrian displaced (2014) Unemployment rate Activity rate Mohamed Ali MAROUANI
Model Multi-sector, dynamic recursive CGE model Nine sectors Detailed description of the labor market: Distinguishing formal and informal jobs Workers of three skill levels Three origins Emigration of Lebanese Mohamed Ali MAROUANI
Model - Production structure Nested production function Value added Capital Labor Medium skilled Low skilled High skilled Informal labor Informal labor Informal labor Formal labor Formal labor Formal labor Lebanese Lebanese Lebanese Lebanese Lebanese Foreigners Foreigners Foreigners Foreigners Foreigners Syrian refugees Syrian refugees Syrian refugees Mohamed Ali MAROUANI
The Database A database on refugees based on different United Nations sources (UNHCR, UNDP, UNICEF and WFP) Population, labor force and employment characteristics (including by education level) Income and Transfers from the different UN agencies Consumption per product (reclassified in the Lebanese national account categories) A database for the labor-migration focused CGE Model Social Accounting Matrix for Lebanon A Labor force survey Mohamed Ali MAROUANI
Simulations Impact simulations The consequences of the Syrian conflict between 2011 and 2015 Compared with a counterfactual reference scenario, where no conflict existed Policy simulations Two counterfactual policy simulations are run and their effects studied in the period 2015-2018 Two extreme scenarios in terms of foreign aid 1. Aid ceases by 2015 2. Aid more than doubles and additional flows come in the form of investment Mohamed Ali MAROUANI
Impact simulations Lower exports The consequences of sharing borders with a country in full scale civil war A decrease by 20% of Lebanese exports, including tourism Displaced Capturing the massive influx of refugees We add refugees to labor supply in Lebanon (all to the informal sector) Humanitarian aid added as a flow from the ROW to Lebanon Mohamed Ali MAROUANI
Policy simulation Stop aid Extreme-case scenario considering what happens if aid were to suddenly cease Starting from 2015 refugees only rely on labor income for survival Investment Additional simulation to mitigate the negative effects of the Syrian crisis Increasing investment through foreign aid We introduce a transfer equivalent to 5% of the investment cost Mohamed Ali MAROUANI
GDP growth rate 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% Ref 3.0% Growth rate Low exports 2.5% Displaced 2.0% Stop aid Investment 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Mohamed Ali MAROUANI
Real Exchange Rate Depreciation 10.0% 9.5% 9.0% 8.5% 8.0% Low exports Displaced 7.5% Stop aid 7.0% Investment 6.5% 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Mohamed Ali MAROUANI
Total Unemployment 20% 18% 16% Ref Low exports 14% Displaced 12% Stop aid Investment 10% 8% 6% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Mohamed Ali MAROUANI
Lebanese Unemployment 19% 18% 17% 16% Ref 15% Low exports 14% Displaced 13% Stop aid Investment 12% 11% 10% 9% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Mohamed Ali MAROUANI
Foreigners Unemployment 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% Ref 2.5% Low exports Displaced 2.0% Stop aid 1.5% Investment 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Mohamed Ali MAROUANI
Purchasing Power of Lebanese (Income per capita in PPP) 18 17.5 17 Ref Low exports 16.5 Displaced Stop aid 16 Investment 15.5 15 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Mohamed Ali MAROUANI
Purchasing Power of Refugees 1.6 1.4 1.2 1 Displaced 0.8 Stop aid Investment 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Mohamed Ali MAROUANI
Impact on the Emigration of Lebanese 89.0 79.0 69.0 Ref Thousands 59.0 Low exports Displaced 49.0 Stop aid Investment 39.0 29.0 19.0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Mohamed Ali MAROUANI
Next Steps Access to formal labor markets and Capital Infrastructure and Social Services Regional and Poverty Aspects Preparing the future Economic Links between Syria and its neighbors Skill Potential in the country Mohamed Ali MAROUANI
THANK YOU! Mohamed Ali MAROUANI
