Light Light Duty Vehicle Forecast Update 2020
This update provides insights into the forecast for light-duty vehicles, including demand forecasting models, key drivers influencing demand, population projections, and changes compared to the 2019 IEPR forecast. It also outlines scenarios for ZEV preferences, incentives, fuel prices, and vehicle attributes until 2030.
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Light Light- -Duty Vehicle Forecast Duty Vehicle Forecast 2020 IEPR Update 2020 IEPR Update Aniss Bahreinian and Mark Palmere Date: November 19, 2020
Overview Statewide Forecast Regional Forecast 2
LDV Demand Forecasting Models: Key Inputs & Outputs 3
Key Light Duty Vehicle Demand Forecast Drivers Fleet Size & New Vehicle Sales Fleet Composition Vehicle Attributes Federal and Statewide Incentives Consumer Preferences Economic & Demographic Factors 4
Light Duty Vehicle Population Forecast 40,000,000 35,000,000 30,000,000 25,000,000 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Low Mid High Source: Energy Commission Staff Analysis 5
Key Input Changes Compared with 2019 IEPR Forecast Updated economic and demographic forecasts, Updated fuel price forecast, Updated vehicle attribute forecasts. Incentive Changes CA Vehicle Rebate Program amount reduced by $500, CVRP data on actual distribution of rebates was used to make downward adjustment to the rebate amount, Added Clean Fuel Rewards to the CVRP for ZEVs. 6
2020 IEPR Light Duty ZEV Scenarios 2020 IEPR Light Duty ZEV Scenarios High INPUTS PREFERENCES Low Mid Aggressive Bookend Consumers ZEV Preference Increase with ZEV market growth Increase with ZEV market growth Increase with ZEV market growth Increase with ZEV market growth Constant at 2017 Level INCENTIVES Federal Tax Credit California Rebate (CVRP) Clean Fuel Rewards HOV Lane Access Fuel Prices Eliminated after 2019 To 2025 2021 To 2030 To 2021 Decreasing starting 2019 To 2025 2021 To 2030 To 2023 Decreasing starting 2019 To 2025 2021 To 2030 To 2025 Decreasing starting 2019 To 2030 2021 To 2030 To 2030 Decreasing starting 2019 To 2030 2021 To 2030 To 2030 High Residential & Commercial Rates High NREL Prices Mid Residential & Commercial Rates Mid NREL Prices Low Residential & Commercial Rates Low NREL Prices Low Residential & Commercial Rates Low NREL Prices Low Residential & Commercial Rates Low NREL Prices Electricity Rates Hydrogen Prices 2030 MY ATTRIBUTES Number of LDV classes with 2030 ZEV Model Year BEV in 10, PHEV in 10, and FCEV in 4 CEC LDV classes BEV in 16, PHEV in 14, FCEV in 6 and PHFCV in 2 CEC LDV classes BEV in 16, PHEV in 15, FCEV in 6 and PHFCV in 2 CEC LDV classes BEV in 16, PHEV in 15, FCEV in 6 and PHFCV in 2 CEC LDV classes BEV in 16, PHEV in 15, FCEV in 10, and PHFCV in 7 CEC LDV classes PEV prices based on battery price declining to ~$120/kWh PEV prices based on battery price declining to ~$100/kWh PEV prices based on battery price declining to ~$80/kWh PEV prices based on battery price declining to ~$70/kWh PEV prices based on battery price declining to ~$62/kWh Vehicle Price/ Battery Price (2030) ~385 miles BEV ~460 miles FCV 15 -21 min PEV 5 min FCV ~385 miles BEV ~460 miles FCV 15 -21 min PEV 5 min FCV ~385 miles BEV ~460 miles FCV 10-16 min PEV 5 min FCV ~385 miles BEV ~460 miles FCV 10-16 min PEV 5 min FCV ~385 miles BEV ~460 miles FCV 10-16 min 5 min FCV 7 Max EV Range (2030) Refuel Time (2030)
Light Duty ZEV Forecast by Scenario 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 - 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 Low Mid High Aggressive Bookend Source: Energy Commission Staff Analysis 8
Light Duty ZEV Forecast by Fuel Type: Mid Case 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 - 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 BEV PHEV FCV Source: Energy Commission Staff Analysis 9
Light Duty ZEV Forecast by Sector, Mid Case: Residential and Non-Residential 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 - 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 Residential Non-Residential Source: Energy Commission Staff Analysis 10
Light Duty Fuel Cell Vehicle Forecast 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 - 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Low Mid High Aggressive Bookend Source: Energy Commission Staff Analysis 11
Regional Population and Income Forecasts Determine Regional Distribution of PEVs The latest regional base year data (2019) are used to estimate future PEV stock by zone, using the following models: PHEV =f f(Household Population, Income) BEV = f f (Household Population, Income) The forecasting zones are then aggregated by the major utility serving the zone. 13
Energy Commission Divides the State Into 20 Forecasting Zones for Electricity Demand Forecast 14
Forecasting Zones Are Aggregated to Include Each Utility s Territory ZONES BY UTILITY Zones 1-6: PG&E Zones 7-11: SCE Zone 12: SDG&E Zone 13: SMUD Zones 16-17: LADWP Zones 0,14-15,18-20: Other (Data Available Individually) 15
Plurality of BEVs are Currently Found in PG&E Territory; PHEVs in SCE Territory 2019 Battery Electric Vehicle Population Distribution 2019 Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle Population Distribution 8.9% 9.9% 2.2% 2.8% 9.7% 37.5% 8.6% 46.5% 30.8% 38.7% PG&E SMUD SCE LADWP SDG&E Other PG&E SMUD SCE LADWP SDG&E Other 16
Distribution Does Not Show Large Regional Shift Through Forecast Period 2030 Battery Electric Vehicle Population Distribution 2030 Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle Population Distribution 9.9% 9.9% 2.7% 36.7% 2.9% 9.3% 45.1% 8.4% 30.1% 36.9% PG&E SMUD SCE LADWP SDG&E Other PG&E SMUD SCE LADWP SDG&E Other Source: Energy Commission Staff Analysis 17
Nearly 1.5 Million PEVs Expected to be On-Road in PG&E Territory On-Road PEV Population, PG&E Territory (Mid Case) 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 - 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 BEV PHEV Source: Energy Commission Staff Analysis 18
PG&E Electric Vehicle Population Approaches 1.8 Million in High Case On-Road PEV Population in PG&E Territory 2,000,000 1,800,000 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 - 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Low Mid High Source: Energy Commission Staff Analysis 19
PEV Population in SCE Territory Forecast to Surpass 1 Million by 2030 On-Road PEV Population, SCE Territory (Mid Case) 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 - 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 BEV PHEV Source: Energy Commission Staff Analysis 20
SCE Electric Vehicle Population Ranges From 600,000 to 1.4 Million On-Road PEV Population in SCE Territory 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 - 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Low Mid High Source: Energy Commission Staff Analysis 21
PEV Population in SDG&E Territory Predicted to Reach 300,000 On-Road PEV Population, SDG&E Territory (Mid Case) 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 - 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 BEV PHEV Source: Energy Commission Staff Analysis 22
SDG&E Electric Vehicle Stock Shows Significant Variation Between Cases On-Road PEV Population in SDG&E Territory 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 - 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Low Mid High Source: Energy Commission Staff Analysis 23
PEV Population in SMUD Territory Forecast to Approach 100,000 On-Road PEV Population, SMUD Territory (Mid Case) 100,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 - 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 BEV PHEV Source: Energy Commission Staff Analysis 24
SMUD Electric Vehicle Stock Shows Significant Variation Between Cases On-Road PEV Population in SMUD Territory 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 - 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Low Mid High Source: Energy Commission Staff Analysis 25
PEV Population in LADWP Territory Expected to Surpass 300,000 in 2030 On-Road PEV Population, LADWP Territory (Mid Case) 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 - 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 BEV PHEV Source: Energy Commission Staff Analysis 26
LADWP Territory Electric Vehicles Surpass 400,000 in High Case On-Road PEV Population in LADWP Territory 450,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 - 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Low Mid High Source: Energy Commission Staff Analysis 27
Thank You! 28
Appendices 29
Overall LDV Sales Have Been Decreasing Source: California New Car Dealers Association 30
ZEV Sales Have Been Steadily Increasing Year BEV FCEV PHEV Total ZEV ZEV Market Share 2016 37,629 960 34,094 72,683 3.29% 2017 45,972 2,123 45,492 93,587 4.29% 2018 95,048 2,396 59,699 157,143 6.98% 2019 94,603 2,084 50,660 147,347 6.84% 2020 (through Sept.) 76,789 Source: Energy Commission Staff Analysis of DMV Data 735 27,575 105,099 7.73%
California 2020 Fuel Price Forecasts, $2019 California Gasoline California Diesel $/GGE Low Electricity Demand $/GGE $/GGE High Electricity Demand $/DGE Low Electricity Demand $3.92 $3.83 $2.42 $2.45 $2.43 $2.44 $2.44 $2.43 $2.42 $2.40 $2.39 $2.42 $/DGE $/DGE High Electricity Demand $3.92 $3.83 $3.60 $3.79 $4.04 $4.14 $4.21 $4.25 $4.20 $4.20 $4.30 $4.24 Mid Mid Year Year Demand Demand 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 $3.68 $3.59 $2.29 $2.27 $2.25 $2.22 $2.20 $2.20 $2.20 $2.19 $2.18 $2.22 $3.68 $3.59 $2.77 $2.76 $2.74 $2.70 $2.71 $2.70 $2.71 $2.69 $2.69 $2.73 $3.68 $3.59 $3.23 $3.37 $3.57 $3.66 $3.70 $3.76 $3.76 $3.80 $3.91 $3.92 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 $3.92 $3.83 $2.90 $2.91 $2.89 $2.89 $2.85 $2.85 $2.79 $2.75 $2.69 $2.65 Source: Energy Commission Staff Analysis 32
California 2020 Fuel Price Forecasts, $2019 Electricity Commercial Rates Electricity Residential Rates Hydrogen $/GGE $/GGE $/GGE $/GGE $/GGE $/GGE $/GGE $/GGE $/GGE Low High Electricity Demand $5.54 $5.78 $5.86 $5.86 $5.73 $5.68 $5.79 $5.85 $5.87 $5.90 $5.92 $5.94 Low High Electricity Demand $6.24 $6.50 $6.67 $6.73 $6.62 $6.55 $6.64 $6.67 $6.66 $6.66 $6.66 $6.64 Low High Electricity Demand $16.55 $16.00 $16.06 $15.81 $15.57 $15.33 $15.08 $14.84 $14.59 $14.35 $14.10 $13.86 Mid Mid Mid Year Electricity Demand $5.54 $5.78 $6.08 $6.22 $6.15 $6.20 $6.43 $6.63 $6.79 $6.97 $7.17 $7.36 Year Electricity Demand $6.24 $6.50 $6.90 $7.13 $7.09 $7.13 $7.37 $7.55 $7.69 $7.85 $8.04 $8.22 Electricity Demand $16.55 $16.00 $14.87 $14.03 $13.19 $12.35 $11.51 $10.67 $9.83 $8.99 $8.15 $7.31 Demand Demand Demand Year 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 $5.54 $5.78 $5.93 $6.03 $5.99 $5.99 $6.16 $6.29 $6.39 $6.52 $6.63 $6.75 $6.24 $6.50 $6.75 $6.93 $6.92 $6.91 $7.07 $7.18 $7.25 $7.35 $7.44 $7.54 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 $16.55 $16.00 $15.46 $14.91 $14.37 $13.82 $13.28 $12.73 $12.19 $11.64 $11.10 $10.55 Note that a hydrogen price of $5.86/GGE ($6.50/kg) was used in the MD-HD high case for 2021 - 2030, representing a right-sized station for a dedicated fleet Source: Energy Commission Staff Analysis for Electricity; NREL Analysis for Hydrogen (except for the MD-HD high case) 33
California 2020 Fuel Price Forecasts, $2019 Propane for Transportation Natural Gas for Transportation Natural Gas for Transportation $/GGE Low Electricity Demand $1.94 $1.93 $1.84 $1.86 $1.89 $1.92 $1.95 $1.98 $1.99 $1.99 $1.99 $2.03 $/GGE $/GGE High Electricity Demand $1.94 $1.93 $2.17 $2.35 $2.54 $2.72 $2.91 $3.08 $3.21 $3.29 $3.40 $3.44 $/GGE Low Electricity Demand $2.01 $2.01 $1.99 $1.99 $1.99 $1.99 $1.98 $1.98 $1.98 $1.97 $1.97 $1.97 $/GGE $/GGE High Electricity Demand $2.01 $2.01 $2.02 $2.02 $2.01 $2.01 $2.01 $2.01 $2.00 $2.00 $2.00 $2.00 $/DGE Low Electricity Demand $2.33 $2.33 $2.31 $2.31 $2.31 $2.31 $2.30 $2.30 $2.29 $2.29 $2.29 $2.29 $/DGE $/DGE High Electricity Demand $2.34 $2.33 $2.34 $2.34 $2.34 $2.34 $2.33 $2.33 $2.33 $2.32 $2.32 $2.32 Mid Mid Mid Year Year Year Demand Demand Demand 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 $1.94 $1.93 $2.01 $2.09 $2.14 $2.19 $2.27 $2.34 $2.38 $2.40 $2.41 $2.47 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 $2.01 $2.01 $2.01 $2.00 $2.00 $2.00 $2.00 $1.99 $1.99 $1.99 $1.99 $1.98 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 $2.33 $2.33 $2.33 $2.33 $2.32 $2.32 $2.32 $2.31 $2.31 $2.31 $2.30 $2.30 Source: Energy Commission Staff Analysis 34
