Long-Term System Assessment (LTSA) Overview
Learn about ERCOT's biennial Long-Term System Assessment (LTSA) process, including scenario development, stakeholder-driven reviews, and key insights from past assessments. Stay updated on the latest in energy generation, transmission, and more.
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Presentation Transcript
2016 LTSA Introduction ERCOT PUBLIC 1
Outline Background 2016 LTSA Process 2016 Scenario Development Process 2016 LTSA Schedule Topics for Expert Presentations Next Steps ERCOT PUBLIC 2
Background Senate Bill 20 (79th Legislature, 1st Called Session [2005]) requires that the PUCT and ERCOT study long-term system needs and report to the Legislature each even numbered year ERCOT has been conducting a Long-Term System Assessment (LTSA) on a biennial basis since 2006 ERCOT recently completed its 2014 LTSA in which reliability and efficiency of ERCOT System was assessed for the years 2024 and 2029 Future load and generation build was developed across ten scenarios four of which were studied for Transmission Expansion ERCOT PUBLIC 3
The 2014 LTSA Work on LTSA was bolstered by grant from the Department of Energy Brattle facilitated a stakeholder-driven scenario development process Scenario development workshops were successful in designing diverse futures while considering a large array of drivers and trends Load forecasting and generation expansion methodologies were improved based on lessons learnt in the DOE study Transmission analysis process was updated further to be more consistent with the near term analysis ERCOT PUBLIC 4
Key lessons learned from the 2014 LTSA Stakeholder-driven scenario development was very beneficial in seeking out different perspectives about ERCOT Grid s future Scenario based approach works - and the LTSA should strive harder to consider diverse scenarios think low global oil prices Most scenario s studied showed a high penetration of Solar generation and the LTSA needs to work harder to incorporate Solar PV on both sides of the meter LTSA is a very resource intensive analysis and it deserves more time for analysis ERCOT PUBLIC 5
2016 LTSA Scope and Process Scenario Development Load forecasting Stakeholder driven review of previous LTSA Expert presentations with focus on key drivers for current LTSA Finalize scenario descriptions and assumptions for current LTSA Generation Expansion Develop 8760-hour load forecasts for each scenario with normal weather assumptions Develop 90thpercentile summer peak forecast for each scenario Transmission Analysis Identify amount of generation added and retired by technology based on scenario description Identify potential sites for new generation Build start cases based on the LTSA Scope and scenario descriptions Perform reliability analysis Perform economic analysis Identify transmission projects to address economic and reliability needs ERCOT PUBLIC 6
LTSA Schedule Task Scenario Development Load Forecasting and Generation Expansion Transmission Analysis LTSA Report Published Date July, 2015 December, 2015 July, 2016 November, 2016 ERCOT PUBLIC 7
Questions? ERCOT PUBLIC 8
