Measuring Quality Possession in Hockey: Passing Metrics Analysis
Enhance your understanding of hockey possession quality through shot sequencing and passing metrics analysis by Ryan Stimson. Explore intentional passing methodology, contributions of forwards in shot attempts, scoring chances, and more. Dive into passing outcomes, shooting percentages, and sequence shooting analyses to gain insights into strategic plays and efficiency on the ice.
Download Presentation
Please find below an Image/Link to download the presentation.
The content on the website is provided AS IS for your information and personal use only. It may not be sold, licensed, or shared on other websites without obtaining consent from the author. If you encounter any issues during the download, it is possible that the publisher has removed the file from their server.
You are allowed to download the files provided on this website for personal or commercial use, subject to the condition that they are used lawfully. All files are the property of their respective owners.
The content on the website is provided AS IS for your information and personal use only. It may not be sold, licensed, or shared on other websites without obtaining consent from the author.
E N D
Presentation Transcript
Shot Sequencing: Measuring Quality Possession through Passing Metrics By Ryan Stimson
Passing Methodology Intentional attempts to get the puck to a teammate Shooter, Primary Passer, and Secondary Passer make up a shot sequence Build up play (# of passers, in transition?) Location markers (SC, OZ, RR) Shot status (One timer?)
SAT Contributions (Forwards) 40.0 Ovechkin Hossa Jagr Sharp Shot Attempt Contributes Per 60 Minutes 35.0 Kane Nash Tavares Toews 30.0 Bjugstad Gomez 25.0 20.0 Dainius Zubrus Dave Bolland Shawn Thorton 15.0 Tanner Glass 10.0 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% 45.0% 50.0% 55.0% 60.0% Percentage of On Ice Attempts Player Contributes To
SC Contributions (Forwards) 18.0 16.0 Scoring Chance Contributions per 60 Minutes Ovechkin Tavares 14.0 Hossa Nash Jagr 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 Zubrus 4.0 Thorton Glass 2.0 0.0 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% Percentage of On Ice Scoring Chances Player Contributes To
Passes and Regulation Outcomes 325 Game Sample of Passing Outcomes (Win %) 66.0% 65.0% 64.0% 63.0% 62.0% 61.0% 60.0% SG Poss. Close SC SAG Poss. Close 5v5 SA Corsi 5v5 SA Shots SC SG Poss. Close 5v5 SA Fenwick SAGE SA Corsi Efficiency SAGE Close SAG Poss. Close
Shooting Percentage (NJ-77, NYI-77, FLA-76, NYR-70, WSH-63, CHI-61) Overall, Passing, and Non-Passing Shooting Percentages (5v5) 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% CHI NYI FLA WSH NYR N.J Sh% ShG% A1 ShG% A2ShG% non-passing SH%
Sequence Shooting % by Category Category RR+SC+1T RR SC 1T A2 Non Trans A2 All A1 Non Trans A2 Trans All A1 Only A1 Trans OZ Shots 178 378 1290 1147 1074 2193 3488 1119 4915 2722 1427 2198 Goals 66 109 236 141 114 214 331 100 407 193 76 95 Sh% 37.1% 28.8% 18.3% 12.3% 10.6% 9.8% 9.5% 8.9% 8.3% 7.1% 5.3% 4.3%
Highway to the Danger Zone Category RR+SC+1T RR + SC SC 1T + SC Shots 178 160 1290 377 Goals 66 41 236 51 Sh% 37.1% 25.6% 18.3% 13.5% A2 + SC A1 + SC 439 656 83 110 18.9% 16.7%
Goalie Analysis using Sequencing A1/A2 Transition Save Percentage - Cory Schneider 98.8% 98.3% A2/A1 Trans D/NZ A1 Trans D/N Z
Goalie Analysis using Sequencing A2 Transition / A1 Not Transition - Cory Schneider 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 88.9% 33.3% RR/SC/1T SC RR/SC OZ/1T OZ RR/OZ
Goalie Analysis using Sequencing A2/A1 Not Transition - Cory Schneider 100.0% 100.0% 94.7% 93.3% 84.6% 75.0% 60.0% RR/SC/1T SC 1T/SC RR/SC RR/1T OZ/1T OZ
Goalie Analysis using Sequencing A1 Not Transition - Cory Schneider 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 96.4% 88.5% 80.0% 0.0% RR/SC/1T SC 1T/SC RR/SC RR/1T OZ/1T OZ RR/OZ
Goalie Analysis using Sequencing Cory Schneider Passing Save Percentage by Category 98.6% 97.0% 93.5% 93.4% 93.2% 85.7% 78.9% 69.2% RR SC 1T OZ D/NZ A2 A1 SV%
Goalie Analysis using Sequencing Population Passing Save Percentage by Category (5000+ shots) 95.7% 94.6% 92.9% 91.7% 90.3% 87.7% 82.8% 71.2% RR SC 1T OZ D/NZ A2 A1 SV%
Goalie Analysis using Sequencing Passing Save Percentage Comparisons (300+ Shots) 93.9% 93.4% 93.3% 93.2% 91.6% 91.6% Cory Schneider Jaroslav Halak Roberto Luongo Braden Holtby Corey Crawford Cam Talbot
Goalie Analysis using Sequencing Passing SV% Team Comparison (400+ Shots) 94.6% 94.2% 93.3% 93.2% 93.2% 91.2% 91.2% Devils Isles Panthers Capitals Rangers Hawks Bruins
Goalie Analysis using Sequencing Royal Road Shot Distribution (7.7% Baseline) 9.7% 8.2% 8.0% 7.4% 6.9% 6.3% 5.9% Devils Isles Panthers Capitals Rangers Hawks Bruins
Goalie Analysis using Sequencing Goalie Passing SV% 93.4% 91.6% 91.6% 93.2% 93.3% 94.9% 93.9% 92.6% 89.5% 89.2% Adjusted Save % 94.8% 93.4% 92.7% 93.5% 93.6% 95.1% 93.8% 93.8% 89.0% 92.3% Cory Schneider Jaroslav Halak Roberto Luongo Braden Holtby Corey Crawford Henrik Lundqvist Cam Talbot Keith Kinkaid Michael Neuvirth Dan Ellis
Expected Goals Allowed and Observed Goals Allowed 45 Islanders, 35 Devils, 35 40 y = 0.9132x - 1.0751 R = 0.7305 35 Panthers, 34 Observed Goals Allowed 30 Rangers, 27 25 Capitals, 24 20 Blackhawks, 20 15 10 5 0 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 35.00 40.00 45.00 50.00 Expected Goals Allowed
Weighting Possession by Sequence Assigned a value on the likelihood of each sequence resulting in a goal based on our total population of 9200 shot attempts Totaled For and Against weighted sequences for the 81 forwards on the six teams (NJ, NYI, NYR, CHI, WSH, and FLA) that we had at least 200 minutes for in 5v5 situations
Weighted PSAT For and Passing Goals For 30.00 y = 0.95x + 2.5396 R = 0.7192 25.00 20.00 Weighted PSAT For 15.00 10.00 5.00 0.00 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 Goals For
Weighted PSAT For and Total Goals For 35 y = 1.1202x + 1.0355 R = 0.7086 30 25 20 Goals For 15 10 5 0 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 Weighted PSAT For
Weighted PSAT% and Passing GF% 80.0% y = 0.2945x + 0.4175 R = 0.3999 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% Weighted PSAT% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% Passing GF%
Weighted PSAT% and Total GF% 80.0% 70.0% y = 1.0124x - 0.069 R = 0.3259 60.0% 50.0% Total GF% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% Weighted PSAT%
WOI Scoring Chance % and Total GF% 80.0% 70.0% y = 1.1715x - 0.0815 R = 0.1526 60.0% 50.0% Total GF% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% WOI Scoring Chance % 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0%
Weighted PSAT% and On Ice Shooting Percentage 16.0% 14.0% y = 0.1647x - 0.0195 R = 0.2775 12.0% On Ice Shooting Percentage 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% Weighted PSAT%
WOI Scoring Chance % and On Ice Shooting Percentage 16.0% 14.0% y = 0.1575x - 0.005 R = 0.0888 12.0% On Ice Shooting Percentage 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% WOI Scoring Chance % 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0%
Top Players by Weighted PSAT% Forward Weighted PSAT% Defense Weighted PSAT% Jonathan Toews 74.0% Dan Boyle 69.5% Marian Hossa 72.2% Mike Green 67.0% Brandan Saad 70.0% Matt Niskanen 64.2% Chris Kreider 67.8% Nicholas Hjalmarsson 63.9% Andre Burakovsky 67.6% Brian Campbell 63.4% Brad Boyes 66.1% Lubomir Visnovsky 63.2% Mats Zuccarello 64.9% Brent Seabrook 63.0% Nicklas Backstrom 64.1% Johnny Oduya 62.5% Derek Stepan 63.6% Aaron Ekblad 61.8% Alex Ovechkin 63.0% Nick Leddy 61.0%
Quantify Sequencing It s a 3-2 League Tracking reveals tendencies that could provide a situational advantage, however slight Bridging the gap between high-level analytics and coaching Combine with video
Acknowledgements Ryan Stoll Brian Franken Shane O Donnell Jesse Severe Cameron Taylor Francis Mahoney Benoit Roy Andrew Glazer Brandon Dedrick Nick Biss Craig Werczynski Robert Fitch Kevin Higginbotham War-on-Ice
Find the Tracking Project that s right for you! Emmanuel Perry (@MannyElk) Jen Lute Costella (RegressedPDO) Ryan Stimson (RK_Stimp)
Future Work Finish tracking and measure repeatability and predictability this summer Continue War-on-Ice partnership to make data public Questions? Comments? Contact me at hockeypassingstats@gmail.com
