Mississippi's Economic Outlook and Population Trends

The content highlights Mississippi's economic statistics, population growth from 1930 to 2009, and nonfarm employment data. It discusses key indicators such as personal income, labor force figures, unemployment rates, per capita income, and population growth rates for various counties. The images included provide visual representation of economic stats and population trends over time.

• Mississippi
• Economic Outlook
• Population Growth
• Nonfarm Employment
• Statistics

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1. Phil Pepper Mississippi Institutions of Higher Learning The Economic Symposium, 2010 May 4, 2010 MISSISSIPPI S ECONOMIC OUTLOOK MISSISSIPPI S ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

2. ECONOMIC STATS Madison Mississippi United States 93,097 2,951,996 2009 Populations Estimate (US Census) 307,006,550 2009 Total Personal Income, Billions (US BEA) $4.2* $88.9 $12,015.5 2009 Civilian Labor Force (US BLS) 45,868 1,291,949 154,142,000 2009 Unemployment Rate (US BLS) 6.9% 9.6% 9.3% 2009 Unemployment Rate U-6 (US BLS) NA 16.2% 16.2% 2008 Workforce Participation Rate, 16 yrs+ (US Census) 68.4% 60.1% 66.0% 2008 Per Capita Income (US BEA) $45,635 $30,103 $39,138 NA = Data Not available. * Total Personal Income For Madison County is for 2008. 2

3. POPULATION GROWTH 1930-2000 -18.2% Benton 46.1% Alcorn 321.4% De Soto 16.8% Tishomingo 32.7% Prentiss 11.6% Tippah 43.6% Tate 40.7% Marshall -56.5% Tunica 19.2% Union 19.6% Panola 93.9% Lafayette -60.0% Quitman 114.5% Lee 24.9% Itawamba -33.9% Coahoma 21.3% Pontotoc Mississippi 41.5% United States 128.4% -26.5% Yalobusha -16.7% Calhoun -58.1% Tallahatchie -6.7% Chickasaw 5.2% Monroe -42.8% Bolivar 38.5% Grenada 22.6% Clay -15.1% Webster -18.8% Montgomery -29.1% Leflore -48.2% Sunflower 124.4% Oktibbeha 105.4% Lowndes -45.5% Carroll -20.9% Choctaw 16.0% Washington -54.7% Humphreys -43.9% Holmes -5.1% Winston -50.9% Noxubee -24.5% Attala -52.6% Sharkey -24.5% Yazoo -4.0% Leake 7.5% Neshoba -52.2% Kemper -60.3% Issaquena 108.6% Madison 35.9% Scott -4.7% Newton 48.2% Lauderdale 38.7% Warren 194.6% Hinds 466.6% Rankin -8.8% Clarke -2.6% Jasper -12.1% Smith -2.6% Claiborne Loss 32.3% Simpson -9.0% Copiah -31.8% Jefferson 29.1% Covington 38.7% Wayne 56.6% Jones 6.3% Gain Lawrence 25.8% Lincoln -2.2% 45.7% Adams -31.1% Franklin Jefferson Davis 48.1% Perry 28.5% Marion 204.1% Lamar 24.9% Greene -26.1% Wilkinson 9.3% Walthall 20.9% Pike 141.1% Forrest -31.0% Amite 154.5% George 138.8% Stone 150.6% Pearl River 722.8% Jackson 329.5% Harrison 276.4% Hancock 3

4. POPULATION GROWTH 1990-2009 -0.6% Benton 12.8% Alcorn 131.4% De Soto 21.2% Marshall 10.8% Tippah 7.4% 28.2% Tunica Tishomingo 10.5% Prentiss 27.5% Tate 23.5% Union 17.0% Panola 37.9% Lafayette 24.4% Lee 14.7% Itawamba 31.0% Pontotoc -14.7% Coahoma Mississippi 14.5% United States 23.4% -19.5% Quitman -16.8% Tallahatchie 14.1% Yalobusha -3.4% Calhoun 3.1% 0.8% Monroe -12.1% Bolivar Chickasaw 6.8% Grenada -2.0% Clay -3.5% Webster -7.3% Leflore -10.3% Montgomery 11.2% Carroll -15.5% Sunflower 16.0% Oktibbeha 0.2% Lowndes -0.7% Choctaw -19.5% Washington -18.9% Humphreys -5.9% Holmes -7.8% Noxubee 7.0% Attala -0.6% Winston -22.9% Sharkey 9.8% Yazoo 25.2% Leake 22.1% Neshoba -4.8% Kemper -15.4% Issaquena 71.5% Madison 21.3% Scott 11.0% Newton 4.8% 0.8% Warren -2.7% Hinds Lauderdale 63.3% Rankin -0.6% Clarke 4.9% Jasper 7.2% Smith -5.4% Claiborne Loss 16.4% Simpson 5.3% Copiah 3.8% Jefferson -10.5% 5.8% Wayne 9.4% Jones Jefferson Davis 6.8% Lawrence Gain 15.0% Lincoln 24.2% Covington -12.9% Adams -0.2% Franklin 11.0% Perry 0.9% Marion 64.0% Lamar 40.0% Greene 4.6% 8.2% Pike -1.7% Amite 18.7% Forrest Wilkinson 6.3% Walthall 35.6% George 54.5% Stone 49.0% Pearl River 15.4% Jackson 9.7% Harrison 28.5% Hancock 4

5. Mississippi Nonfarm Employment 1,200 1,160.6 1,160.6 May 00 May 00 1,159.6 1,159.6 Feb 08 Feb 08 1,150 1,100 1,108.3 1,108.3 Jun 03 Jun 03 1,086.0 1,086.0 Feb 10 Feb 10 1,050 Thousands 1,000 950 900 850 800 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 5

6. NONFARM EMPLOYMENT INDEX, 1990=100 300 250 200 150 100 50 - Madison MS US Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and IHL 6

7. Mississippi Employment by Major Industry Sector, 1990 - 2010 430 380 Thousands of Jobs 330 280 230 180 130 MFG Trade, Trans. & Utilities Services Gov. 7 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

8. RELATIVE SHARE OF TOTAL BY MAJOR SECTOR 41.4% 41.4% 45.0% 37.4% 37.4% 40.0% 34.0% 34.0% 35.0% 30.0% 21.4% 21.4% 22.8% 22.8% 25.0% 19.5% 19.5% 19.1% 19.1% 17.2% 17.2% 20.0% 14.6% 14.6% 12.9% 12.9% 15.0% 10.5% 10.5% 9.1% 9.1% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% MFG Trade, Transportation & Utilities Services Government Madison MS US Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and IHL 8

9. TOTAL PERSONAL INCOME INDEX, 1990=100 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 - Madison MS US Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and IHL 9

10. GROWTH IN REAL TOTAL PERSONAL INCOME 40.00% 35.00% 30.00% 25.00% 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% 2000-2008 2000-2008 MS Hinds Madison Rankin US Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 10

11. RETAIL SALES PULL FACTORS, 2008 1.03 Alcorn 0.21 Benton 0.90 De Soto 0.57 0.43 0.58 Tippah Tishomingo Marshall 1.63 Tunica 0.55 Tate 0.72 Prentiss 0.82 Union 0.91 Panola 0.94 1.27 Lee Lafayette 0.47 0.26 0.68 0.67 Itawamba Quitman Coahoma Pontotoc 0.35 0.52 0.55 Yalobusha 0.58 0.58 Monroe Calhoun Tallahatchie 0.70 Bolivar Chickasaw 1.17 Grenada 0.59 Clay 0.53 0.48 Sunflower 0.98 Leflore Webster 0.61 0.22 Carroll 0.76 1.05 Montgomery Oktibbeha Lowndes 0.34 0.87 Choctaw Washington 0.55 0.45 Holmes 0.62 0.46 0.69 Attala Humphreys Winston Noxubee Index Less Than 0.60 0.61 Sharkey 0.59 Yazoo 0.67 Leake 0.72 0.37 Kemper 0.16 Neshoba Index Above 0.60 But Less Than 1.00 0.84 Issaquena Madison 0.84 Scott 0.51 Newton 1.07 0.96 Warren Index Greater Than 1.00 1.09 Rankin 1.01 Hinds Lauderdale 0.51 Clarke 0.75 Jasper 0.39 Smith 0.48 Claiborne 0.59 0.62 Copiah Simpson 0.35 0.68 0.95 Wayne Jefferson 1.11 Jones 0.36 Covington 0.48 1.13 Lincoln Lawrence 1.15 Adams 0.35 Franklin Jefferson Davis 1.04 Marion 1.37 Lamar 0.34 Greene 0.54 0.60 Walthall 1.12 Pike 1.39 Forrest 0.43 Perry 0.27 Amite Wilkinson 1.03 George 0.81 Stone 0.75 Pearl River 0.84 1.40 Jackson 0.99 Harrison 11 Hancock

12. RETAIL SALES PULL FACTOR, 1990-2008 1.30 1.25 1.20 1.15 1.10 1.05 1.00 0.95 0.90 0.85 0.80 Madison Hinds Rankin 12

13. GENERAL FUND TRENDS Transfers to the G.F. Transfers to the G.F.-- -- Growth Over Prior Year Growth Over Prior Year 14% 12.8% 11.4% 12% 10.5% 9.7% 10% 9.1% 7.6% 8% 7.2% 6.5% 5.9% 6% 5.1% 4.0% 3.1% 4% 2.8% 2.9% 2.5% 2.2% 2.1% 1.3% 2% 0% -2% -4.2% -2.1% -4% -6.3% -6% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Fiscal Year 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010* Red Bars Denote National Recessions: July 1990-March 1991; March 2001-November 2001; December 2007 June 2009 (Preliminary). 2010 Growth is the March Revised Estimate. 13

14. MS CONSUMERS ARE NOT SPENDING $50 $45 $40 $35 Billions Billions $30 Loans Deposits $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 $0 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 14 Source: FDIC

15. JOBS LOST RELATIVE TO THE YEAR AGO 20,000 9,300 9,300 8,900 8,900 8,900 8,900 8,300 8,300 7,800 7,800 4,700 4,700 10,000 0 300 - -300 -10,000 7,600 - -7,600 10,100 - -10,100 - -14,000 14,000 - -14,800 14,800 -20,000 - -18,100 18,100 - -23,000 23,000 - -24,800 24,800 -30,000 30,800 - -30,800 32,600 - -32,600 -40,000 40,600 - -40,600 40,600 - -40,600 -50,000 47,400 - -47,400 - -49,200 49,200 49,800 - -49,800 50,400 - -50,400 - -52,300 52,300 54,100 - -54,100 -60,000 - -55,500 Jun 55,500 - -56,000 Aug 56,000 - -56,400 May 56,400 - -57,700 Apr 57,700 -70,000 Jun Aug Jul Oct Jul Oct Apr Feb Feb Feb Sep Sep Nov May Nov Dec Jan 08 Dec Jan 09 Dec Jan 10 Mar Mar Mar 15

16. COLLEGE GRADUATES AS SHARE OF POPULATION Percentage of Population 25+ Years Old Percentage of Population 25+ Years Old with at Least a Bachelor's Degree with at Least a Bachelor's Degree 40.00% 35.00% 37.9% 37.9% 30.00% 25.00% 24.4% 24.4% 20.00% 16.9% 16.9% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% MS Madison US Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 16

17. WORKFORCE PARTICIPATION AND EDUCATION ATTAINMENT Mississippians 25 Mississippians 25- -64 Years of Age, 2005 64 Years of Age, 2005 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% H.S. Dropout H.S. Diploma Some College or AA Degree Bachelor's Degree or Higher 17

18. UNEMPLOYMENT AND EDUCATION ATTAINMENT Mississippians 25 Mississippians 25- -64 Years of Age, 2005 64 Years of Age, 2005 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% H.S. Dropout H.S. Diploma Some College or AA Degree Bachelor's Degree or Higher 18

19. SUMMARY Growth in the US and MS will be below the long- term average for the foreseeable future Job growth in particular will be anemic in MS State revenue growth will be slow with greater frequency of negative years Restructuring of State verses Federal government -- politics, politics, politics Education, Education, Education 19

20. Questions or Comments? 20