Multi-Dimensional Vulnerability Index: Preliminary Results on SIDS

The Multi-Dimensional Vulnerability Index (MVI) assesses structural, economic, and environmental vulnerabilities in Small Island Developing States (SIDS). Preliminary results show SIDS are more vulnerable, with varying degrees of vulnerability across regions. The MVI covers 196 countries, including 46 SIDS, highlighting specific challenges faced by different island groups. Insights indicate Pacific SIDS are most vulnerable, particularly in economic aspects, while Atlantic/Indian SIDS face significant development constraints. Caribbean and Pacific SIDS are notably vulnerable to environmental shocks.

• Vulnerability Index
• SIDS
• Small Island Developing States
• Preliminary Results
• Economic Vulnerabilities

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1. UNDESA Technical Webinar Series Preliminary Results: Multi-Dimensional Vulnerability Index SIDS UN Resident Coordinator Offices in partnership with the Sustainable Development Solutions Network 29 April 2021 Isabella Massa, PhD Sustainable Development Solutions Network

2. Multidimensional Vulnerability Index (MVI) STRUCTURAL VULNERABILITY Any structural limitation which impedes to achieve sustainable development SIDS Economic vulnerabilities Economic diversification Trade openness Income dependency from abroad (remittances, tourism receipts, ODA) Dependence on strategic imports (food, fuel) Pacific Atlantic/Indian Environmental vulnerabilities MVI Structural development limitations Frequency of hydrometeorological and seismic disasters Severity of hydrometeorological and seismic disasters (deaths and damages) Land area vulnerable Physical size Location Water scarcity Arable land Caribbean

3. Draft MVI Results Preliminary: Not for sharing or attribution o Draft MVI covers 196 countries of which 46 are SIDS. o SIDS are more vulnerable than other countries in the world. MVI Variable SIDS-Caribbean SIDS-Pacific SIDS-AtlanticIndian Europe LatinAmerica MENA SSA SouthAsia EastAsiaPacific CentralAsia NorthAmerica Constant Observations R2 Adj R2 8.88*** 10.34*** 11.06*** 10.33*** 9.55*** 14.34*** 15.06*** 14.34*** 13.55*** 13.98*** 16.39*** 17.37*** 15.49*** 16.93*** 12.70*** 11.97*** 11.19*** 11.62*** 14.02*** 15.00*** 13.12*** 14.57*** -2.60*** -3.38*** -2.95*** -4.98*** -4.54*** 9.98*** 12.38*** 13.36*** 11.49*** 12.93*** -0.54 -2.14 4.72*** 4.34*** 0.43 -1.16 5.69*** 5.32*** 4.61** -1.44 -3.04 3.82 3.44 2.73 -3.05 -1.59 5.26*** 4.89*** 4.18** -1.61 5.04*** -12.93*** 2.31 24.28*** 22.82*** 22.10*** 22.83*** 23.61*** 23.18*** 20.78*** 19.80*** 21.68*** 20.23*** 196.00 196.00 196.00 196.00 196.00 0.11 0.37 0.48 0.49 0.52 0.10 0.36 0.47 0.48 0.51 196.00 0.52 0.51 196.00 0.55 0.54 196.00 0.56 0.54 196.00 0.57 0.54 196.00 0.61 0.58 MVIndex = SIDS-Caribbean(dummy) + SIDS-Pacific(dummy) + SIDS-Atlantic(dummy) + + Europe(dummy) + Note: A positive (negative) coefficient means that a given region scores higher (lower) in the MVI, where a higher score means a higher degree of vulnerability. MVI ranges from 6 to 50. * p<.1; ** p<.05; *** p<.01

4. Draft MVI Results (cont.) Preliminary: Not for sharing or attribution The type of vulnerability of the three main groups of SIDS varies. o Pacific SIDS are the most vulnerable across all pillars. o Pacific SIDS and Atlantic / Indian SIDS are particularly vulnerable economically. o Atlantic / Indian SIDS face the most significant development constraints. o Pacific SIDS and Caribbean SIDS are particularly vulnerable to environmental shocks. o Economic Pillar SIDS-Caribbean SIDS-Pacific SIDS-AtlanticIndian Adj R2 7.65*** 9.53*** 10.43*** 8.87*** 18.48*** 19.38*** 17.82*** 16.65*** 16.43*** 20.03*** 21.07*** 18.40*** 23.39*** 15.89*** 14.33*** 13.16*** 12.94*** 16.54*** 17.57*** 14.91*** 19.90*** 0.30 0.39 0.43 0.47 0.47 Development Pillar 7.70*** 7.48*** 11.08*** 12.11*** 9.44** 14.44*** 0.04 0.50 0.50 0.51 0.53 SIDS-Caribbean SIDS-Pacific SIDS-AtlanticIndian Adj R2 12.64*** 14.21*** 15.20*** 14.48*** 13.33*** 14.87*** 18.93*** 20.59*** 16.77*** 17.06*** 15.37*** 16.36*** 15.64*** 14.48*** 16.03*** 20.09*** 21.75*** 17.92*** 18.22*** 17.59*** 16.87*** 15.71*** 17.26*** 21.32*** 22.98*** 19.15*** 19.44*** 0.09 0.22 0.31 0.31 0.33 Environment Pillar 0.36 0.40 0.41 0.41 0.48 SIDS-Caribbean SIDS-Pacific SIDS-AtlanticIndian Adj R2 6.35** 7.28*** 9.19*** 7.54*** 9.45*** 4.61*** 0.29 7.64*** 9.55*** 4.70*** 0.29 7.62*** 9.52*** 4.68*** 0.29 7.59*** 9.49*** 4.65*** 0.28 7.15*** 9.05*** 4.21** 0.28 7.38*** 9.29*** 10.15*** 9.20*** 4.45*** 5.31*** 0.28 0.27 8.24*** 7.29*** 4.36** 0.27 0.09 0.27 Note: A positive (negative) coefficient means that a given region scores higher (lower) in a given Pillar, where a higher score means a higher degree of vulnerability. * p<.1; ** p<.05; *** p<.01

5. Draft MVI Results (cont.) Preliminary: Not for sharing or attribution o Being vulnerable is associated with a lower SDG Index score. Adjusted R2 =0.20

6. Draft MVI Results (cont.) Preliminary: Not for sharing or attribution o Being vulnerable is associated with higher SDG gaps in poverty. Adjusted R2 = 0.15

7. Draft MVI Results (cont.) Preliminary: Not for sharing or attribution o Being vulnerable is associated with higher SDG gaps in well-being. Adjusted R2 = 0.16

8. Draft MVI Results (cont.) Preliminary: Not for sharing or attribution o Being vulnerable is associated with higher SDG gaps in health outcomes. Adjusted R2 = 0.15

9. Conclusions Small Island Developing States (SIDS) are a distinct group of developing countries facing specific structural economic, development, and environmental vulnerabilities. There are important differences in the type of vulnerability faced by the different regional clusters of SIDS. SIDS vulnerability should be connected to specific international financing mechanisms. Better data are needed to refine the MVI and to assess government efforts to strengthen resilience and public sector capacities to respond to shocks and vulnerabilities.