National Enrollment Projections and Trends in Postsecondary Education
"Explore national enrollment projections for public high school graduates, postsecondary degree-granting institutions, and bachelor's degrees, highlighting regional trends and demographic shifts. Analysis includes expected increases in Hispanic degree conferrals and women's enrollment numbers surpassing men. Dr. Lisa Castellino's role in institutional research and planning is also discussed."
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Presentation Transcript
Horizon 2023 National Enrollment Projections and the Role of California Dr. Lisa Castellino Institutional Research and Planning
Projected percentage change in the number of public high school graduates by state: School years 2009-10 through 2022-23 New Hampshire Washington California s growth will be somewhat slower than neighboring western states. Maine Minnesota Vermont North Dakota Oregon Wisconsin Mass Mass Idaho South Dakota New York Michigan Rhode Island Connecticut Pennsylvania Iowa Nebraska Nevada New Jersey Delaware Ohio Illinois West Virginia Indiana Maryland Kansas Virginia Missouri Kentucky North Carolina South Carolina Tennessee OklahomaArkansas New Mexico Arizona Mississippi Looking ahead, the West will continue to see growth in high school graduates while the Northeast will continue to see declines. Hawaii Georgia Alabama Texas Louisiana Alaska Summary: *Decrease 10% between 09-10 and 22-23 in the Northeast *Decrease 8% in the Midwest *Increase 9% in the South *Increase 5% in the West >=5% higher <5% higher <5% lower >=5% lower
Projected numbers for enrollment in PUBLIC 4-year postsecondary degree-granting institutions 10,000 9,120 9,020 9,000 8,896 8,790 8,668 8,551 8,443 8,345 8,000 7,000 Enrollment (in thousands) 6,000 5,176 5,117 5,039 4,971 5,000 4,893 4,812 4,737 4,662 4,000 3,944 3,903 3,857 3,818 3,776 3,739 3,705 3,682 3,000 By 2022, Women are still expected to outpace men in enrollments in both number and percent change. 11% Female, 7% Male. 2,000 1,000 0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Total M F
Projected numbers for bachelors degrees conferred by ALL postsecondary degree-granting institutions: Gender 815,000 2022 1,198,000 2,012,000 807,000 2021 1,180,000 1,986,000 798,000 2020 1,160,000 1,958,000 792,000 2019 1,143,000 1,934,000 786,000 2018 1,127,000 1,913,000 783,000 By 2022, Women are still expected to outpace men in degree conferrals in both number and percent change. 11% Female, 5% Male. 2017 1,113,000 1,895,000 782,000 2016 1,100,000 1,882,000 779,000 2015 1,082,000 1,861,000 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 men women total Number of Bachelor s Degrees Conferred
Projected numbers for enrollment in ALL postsecondary degree-granting institutions: Ethnicity 30,000 By 2022, the number of Hispanic degree conferrals is projected to increase by 20%, while Black, Non-Hispanic is projected to increase by about 16% 25,000 20,000 Enrollment (in thousands) 13,492 13,393 13,249 13,191 13,099 15,000 13,010 12,948 12,913 10,000 1,400 1,398 1,400 1,385 1,369 1,355 1,345 1,337 3,757 3,697 3,624 3,526 3,423 3,321 3,220 5,000 3,119 3,940 3,886 3,817 3,743 3,666 3,581 3,487 3,391 0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Black Hispanic Asian/Pacific Islander Alaskan Native White
Fastest Growing Occupations to 2022 Requiring a Four-Year Degree: Percent Change 2012-2022 United States California 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Interpreters and Translators 46% Foresters 50% Information Security Analysts 37% Biomedical Engineers Information Security Analysts Market Research Analysts and Marketing Interpreters and Translators Operations Research Analysts Cartographers and Photogrammetrists Soil and Plant Scientists 43% Meeting, Convention, and Event Planners 33% 32% 40% 40% 38% 37% 36% 35% 33% 33% 32% 32% 32% 30% 29% 27% 25% 24% 24% 24% Market Research Analysts and Marketing Geographers 29% 27% 27% 27% 26% 26% 26% 25% 23% 23% 23% 22% 21% 21% 21% 21% Personal Financial Advisors Operations Research Analysts Biomedical Engineers Cost Estimators Actuaries Meeting, Convention, and Event Planners Actuaries Cost Estimators Logisticians Management Analysts Petroleum Engineers Computer Systems Analysts Medical and Health Services Managers Environmental Scientists and Specialists, Software Developers, Applications Computer Systems Analysts Environmental Engineers Agents and Business Managers of Artists, Software Developers, Systems Software Training and Development Specialists Mental Health and Substance Abuse Social Software Developers, Applications Logisticians Athletic Trainers Dietitians and Nutritionists Social and Community Service Managers Credit Counselors
