NOAA Modeling Strategy and Future Directions
Explore the NCEP Production Suite, driving forces behind EMC modeling, the push for unified modeling, and emerging requirements like the Weather Ready Nation initiative. Discuss the need for faster changes, guiding factors, forcing factors, and the high-level perspective of NOAA's modeling strategy.
Download Presentation
Please find below an Image/Link to download the presentation.
The content on the website is provided AS IS for your information and personal use only. It may not be sold, licensed, or shared on other websites without obtaining consent from the author. If you encounter any issues during the download, it is possible that the publisher has removed the file from their server.
You are allowed to download the files provided on this website for personal or commercial use, subject to the condition that they are used lawfully. All files are the property of their respective owners.
The content on the website is provided AS IS for your information and personal use only. It may not be sold, licensed, or shared on other websites without obtaining consent from the author.
E N D
Presentation Transcript
The NCEP Production Suite Looking forward Hendrik L. Tolman Director, Environmental Modeling Center NOAA / NWS / NCEP Hendrik.Tolman@NOAA.gov Tolman, December 1, 2014 The NPS- looking forward, 1/10
Driving forces UCAN report and NCEP Strategic plan EMC modeling directions: Toward unified modeling: Simplify Production Suite. But .. also add more: New elements in the environmental modeling suite. Reforecast for postprocessing of model results. Be more nimble, faster model improvements. But changes require much work on post-processing side, so change less often .. modeling strategy change faster change slower EMC do more do less Tolman, December 1, 2014 The NPS- looking forward, 2/10
Do less Simplify NPS, unified modeling First deal with global and regional separately. To disruptive for operations to unify all at once. Unified modeling approach promoted by UCAN. NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS, ESMF). From GFS / GEFS / CFS models to coupled model with GFS / GEFS / CFS applications. Reduce number of mesoscale models RSM, ETA, NMM, HWRF, NMM-B, WRF-ARW. Global meso unification ? Keep in mind in planning phases. Actual unification later. Tolman, December 1, 2014 The NPS- looking forward, 3/10
Do more Emerging Requirements Weather Ready Nation. Products. Social science. High impact events. Weather to climate seamless suite of guidance and products. Week 3-4. Systematic reforecast need. Range of products beyond weather: Atmosphere, land, ice, ocean, waves, aerosols, (ecosystems). Individual products versus coupled modeling. Water cycle, NWC. Tolman, December 1, 2014 The NPS- looking forward, 4/10
Change faster Guiding factors: Community modeling Concepts proven with HWRF, WW3, CRTM, . Communicate operational business model to academia. Town hall meetings at AGU and AMS. New opportunities Sandy Supplemental, R2O funding (NGGPS). Has to be integrated R&O approach, not building of new stovepipes. Modeling strategy: We need a well articulated and documented strategy. Now only bits and pieces in place. Following three slides Tolman, December 1, 2014 The NPS- looking forward, 5/10
Forcing Factors Science and Technology Advances Observing systems High performance computing Data dissemination Numerical Guidance Systems Data assimilation (methodology) Modeling (physics, coupling & dynamics) Ensembles (constr. initialization, membership, etc.) Intelligent post processing Predictability convective systems Seasonal to interannual Tolman, December 1, 2014 The NPS- looking forward, 6/10
The NOAA Modeling Strategy High Level Perspective Moving away from the model of the day . Priorities for deterministic development are clear: Data assimilation (methodology and observations). Model physics Why do we continue to underplay this important part of the enterprise? Clouds, microphysics, radiation, land, ocean, waves, ice, aerosols .includes coupling. Resolution horizontal and vertical. Dynamic core. Must consider advanced HPC technologies. Regional systems shift to convection permitting applications. Tolman, December 1, 2014 The NPS- looking forward, 7/10
The NOAA Modeling Strategy Focus on probabilistic modeling (ensembles). Continue to pursue multi-model approach to ensembles. Limited within NCEP. National or international approach. Don t forget: ensemble systems only as good as the modeling system it is built from. Presentation / use of probabilistic information. Push to products for week 3-4. Unified modeling approach promoted by UCAN. * UCAR Community Advisory Committee for NCEP Tolman, December 1, 2014 The NPS- looking forward, 8/10
Change slower Changing slower versus developer- user engagement in implementation process. Use HWRF paradigm for more implementations. To be discussed later today. Increased MDL, NCEP Centers, (OHD, NWC) involvement in implementation process. Operationally sustainable downstream processing. Articulate needs for retrospective data (including reanalysis and reforecasts). Clear expectation on time lines for implementations. Business cases for Up front available retrospective data. Real-time available retrospective data. Sunsetting of old model versions. Tolman, December 1, 2014 The NPS- looking forward, 9/10
Tolman, December 1, 2014 The NPS- looking forward, 10/10
