Normalizing Data for Holiday and Seasonal Adjustments

Normalizing Data for Holiday and Seasonal Adjustments
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In Chapter 2, learn about the process of normalizing data by equating holiday factors, day factors, and seasonally adjusting data to derive growth rates and finalize seasonally adjusted data with event adjustments.

  • Data normalization
  • Seasonal adjustment
  • Growth rates
  • Holiday factors
  • Events adjustments
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  1. Chapter 2: Normalizing the Data Holiday Factors Equated Day Factors Seasonally- Adjusted Data: Initial Initial Seasonal Factors Original Data Normalized Data Holiday Factors Growth Rate (Adjustments) Seasonally- Adjusted Data: Initial Seasonally- Adjusted Data: Final Growth-Adj Seasonal Factors Events (Adjustments) 2 - 1

  2. 1. Introduction 2. Fixed Day 3. Fixed Date 4. Final Thoughts Holiday Factors Holiday Factors describe how the activity on holidays, and the days immediately surrounding them, compares with normal . Memorial Day Values Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Wtd Avg 0.74 0 0 0 1.04 0.96 0.96 1. Introduction 2 - 2

  3. 1. Introduction 2. Fixed Day 3. Fixed Date 4. Final Thoughts Holiday Factors Why bother? 1. 2. 3. Understand how monthly results impacted by holidays Improve measurement of events, like marketing campaigns Greater confidence in final results 2 - 3

  4. 1. Introduction 2. Fixed Day 3. Fixed Date 4. Final Thoughts Holiday Factors What do you do if you have no daily data to work with? Your best. Talk with appropriate staff at your organization and attempt to derive crude estimates of the relative weight for each day. Follow a similar approach as was done with Equated Day Factors. Goal: Fill in the template. 2 - 4

  5. 1. Introduction 2. Fixed Day 3. Fixed Date 4. Final Thoughts Holiday Factors There are two categories of holidays to estimate: Fixed Day and Fixed Date. Type Occurrence Examples Fixed Day Memorial Day, Labor Day, Thanksgiving, Veteran s Day Same day of week Fixed Date July 4, Christmas, New Year s Day, Halloween Same calendar day of year 2 - 5

  6. 1. 2. Fixed Day 3. Fixed Date 4. Final Thoughts Introduction Holiday Factors The table shows the Holiday Factor calculation for Martin Luther King Day, 2016. A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Holiday: Martin Luther King DayMon 2016 12 1/18/16 Data 8 9 Days from Holiday: Holiday Date (3) (2) (1) 0 1 2 3 Days from Holiday: Include Week? Week of 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu 1/18/16 12/21/15 3,178,252,379 0 0 1,197,999,223 1,097,307,276 1,086,614,002 488,217,282 0 Leave out due to Xmas 1/19/15 12/28/15 0 0 0 784,023,087 764,691,103 730,781,107 923,372,997 0 1/20/14 1/4/16 0 0 0 1,435,357,143 1,135,552,257 1,382,983,326 1,544,262,490 1 1/21/13 1/11/16 1,461,608,340 0 0 1,430,253,464 1,505,447,511 1,569,583,081 1,627,122,214 1 1/16/12 1/18/16 1,874,180,420 0 0 0 1,571,343,500 1,952,984,008 1,599,879,652 0 1/17/11 1/25/16 1,575,234,372 0 0 1,380,951,298 1,378,239,012 1,501,124,082 1,466,693,994 1 1/18/10 2/1/16 2,000,238,925 0 0 1,371,459,181 1,398,842,713 1,598,733,038 1,611,667,463 1 1/19/09 2/8/16 1,528,772,599 0 0 1,760,112,897 1,538,362,421 1,418,174,869 1,793,683,481 1 1/21/08 2/15/16 1,508,855,866 0 0 0 1,578,101,712 1,593,497,550 1,431,222,815 1 6 Total: Holiday Indices (= Holiday / Given Day ) Determining Outliers 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 Max Allowed Standard Deviations: Count? (Yes = 1, No = 0) 1.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 No. of Std Dev's Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Week of Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu 12/21/15 0.59 0 0 0 1.43 1.80 3.28 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2 6.1 27.7 12/28/15 0 0 0 0 2.05 2.67 1.73 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.6 16.9 8.7 1/4/16 0 0 0 0 1.38 1.41 1.04 0 0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9 1.4 0.2 1 1 1 1 1 1/11/16 1.28 0 0 0 1.04 1.24 0.98 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.4 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1/18/16 1.00 0 0 0 1.00 1.00 1.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 3.6 0.2 1/25/16 1.19 0 0 0 1.14 1.30 1.09 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.9 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2/1/16 0.94 0 0 0 1.12 1.22 0.99 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2/8/16 1.23 0 0 0 1.02 1.38 0.89 0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.0 1.6 1 1 1 1 1 1 2/15/16 1.24 0 0 0 1.00 1.23 1.12 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.9 1.2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Prelim Avg 0.98 0 0 0 1.12 1.30 1.02 Total: 5 6 6 6 5 6 5 Final Avg 1.18 0 0 0 1.06 1.30 1.04 Std Dev 0.50 0 0 0 0.14 0.08 0.08 Holidays Fixed Day: MLKDay 2. Fixed Day Holidays 2 - 6

  7. 1. 2. Fixed Day 3. Fixed Date 4. Final Thoughts Introduction Holiday Factors The headings identify the holiday, day of week, and year. A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Holiday: Martin Luther King DayMon 2016 12 1/18/16 Data 8 9 Days from Holiday: Holiday Date (3) (2) (1) 0 1 2 3 Days from Holiday: Include Week? Week of 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu 1/18/16 12/21/15 3,178,252,379 0 0 1,197,999,223 1,097,307,276 1,086,614,002 488,217,282 0 Leave out due to Xmas 1/19/15 12/28/15 0 0 0 784,023,087 764,691,103 730,781,107 923,372,997 0 1/20/14 1/4/16 0 0 0 1,435,357,143 1,135,552,257 1,382,983,326 1,544,262,490 1 1/21/13 1/11/16 1,461,608,340 0 0 1,430,253,464 1,505,447,511 1,569,583,081 1,627,122,214 1 1/16/12 1/18/16 1,874,180,420 0 0 0 1,571,343,500 1,952,984,008 1,599,879,652 0 1/17/11 1/25/16 1,575,234,372 0 0 1,380,951,298 1,378,239,012 1,501,124,082 1,466,693,994 1 1/18/10 2/1/16 2,000,238,925 0 0 1,371,459,181 1,398,842,713 1,598,733,038 1,611,667,463 1 1/19/09 2/8/16 1,528,772,599 0 0 1,760,112,897 1,538,362,421 1,418,174,869 1,793,683,481 1 1/21/08 2/15/16 1,508,855,866 0 0 0 1,578,101,712 1,593,497,550 1,431,222,815 1 6 Total: Holiday Indices (= Holiday / Given Day ) Determining Outliers 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 Max Allowed Standard Deviations: Count? (Yes = 1, No = 0) 1.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 No. of Std Dev's Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Week of Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu 12/21/15 0.59 0 0 0 1.43 1.80 3.28 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2 6.1 27.7 12/28/15 0 0 0 0 2.05 2.67 1.73 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.6 16.9 8.7 1/4/16 0 0 0 0 1.38 1.41 1.04 0 0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9 1.4 0.2 1 1 1 1 1 1/11/16 1.28 0 0 0 1.04 1.24 0.98 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.4 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1/18/16 1.00 0 0 0 1.00 1.00 1.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 3.6 0.2 1/25/16 1.19 0 0 0 1.14 1.30 1.09 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.9 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2/1/16 0.94 0 0 0 1.12 1.22 0.99 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2/8/16 1.23 0 0 0 1.02 1.38 0.89 0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.0 1.6 1 1 1 1 1 1 2/15/16 1.24 0 0 0 1.00 1.23 1.12 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.9 1.2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Prelim Avg 0.98 0 0 0 1.12 1.30 1.02 Total: 5 6 6 6 5 6 5 Final Avg 1.18 0 0 0 1.06 1.30 1.04 Std Dev 0.50 0 0 0 0.14 0.08 0.08 Holidays Fixed Day: MLKDay 2 - 7

  8. 1. 2. Fixed Day 3. Fixed Date 4. Final Thoughts Introduction Holiday Factors The data is sorted in columns, with the holiday placed in the middle; this ensures picking up activity change for the 3 days before & after the holiday. A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Holiday: Martin Luther King DayMon 2016 12 1/18/16 Data 8 9 Days from Holiday: Holiday Date (3) (2) (1) 0 1 2 3 Days from Holiday: Include Week? Week of 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu 1/18/16 12/21/15 3,178,252,379 0 0 1,197,999,223 1,097,307,276 1,086,614,002 488,217,282 0 Leave out due to Xmas 1/19/15 12/28/15 0 0 0 784,023,087 764,691,103 730,781,107 923,372,997 0 1/20/14 1/4/16 0 0 0 1,435,357,143 1,135,552,257 1,382,983,326 1,544,262,490 1 1/21/13 1/11/16 1,461,608,340 0 0 1,430,253,464 1,505,447,511 1,569,583,081 1,627,122,214 1 1/16/12 1/18/16 1,874,180,420 0 0 0 1,571,343,500 1,952,984,008 1,599,879,652 0 1/17/11 1/25/16 1,575,234,372 0 0 1,380,951,298 1,378,239,012 1,501,124,082 1,466,693,994 1 1/18/10 2/1/16 2,000,238,925 0 0 1,371,459,181 1,398,842,713 1,598,733,038 1,611,667,463 1 1/19/09 2/8/16 1,528,772,599 0 0 1,760,112,897 1,538,362,421 1,418,174,869 1,793,683,481 1 1/21/08 2/15/16 1,508,855,866 0 0 0 1,578,101,712 1,593,497,550 1,431,222,815 1 6 Total: Holiday Indices (= Holiday / Given Day ) Determining Outliers 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 Max Allowed Standard Deviations: Count? (Yes = 1, No = 0) 1.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 No. of Std Dev's Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Week of Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu 12/21/15 0.59 0 0 0 1.43 1.80 3.28 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2 6.1 27.7 12/28/15 0 0 0 0 2.05 2.67 1.73 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.6 16.9 8.7 1/4/16 0 0 0 0 1.38 1.41 1.04 0 0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9 1.4 0.2 1 1 1 1 1 1/11/16 1.28 0 0 0 1.04 1.24 0.98 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.4 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1/18/16 1.00 0 0 0 1.00 1.00 1.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 3.6 0.2 1/25/16 1.19 0 0 0 1.14 1.30 1.09 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.9 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2/1/16 0.94 0 0 0 1.12 1.22 0.99 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2/8/16 1.23 0 0 0 1.02 1.38 0.89 0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.0 1.6 1 1 1 1 1 1 2/15/16 1.24 0 0 0 1.00 1.23 1.12 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.9 1.2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Prelim Avg 0.98 0 0 0 1.12 1.30 1.02 Total: 5 6 6 6 5 6 5 Final Avg 1.18 0 0 0 1.06 1.30 1.04 Std Dev 0.50 0 0 0 0.14 0.08 0.08 Holidays Fixed Day: MLKDay 2 - 8

  9. 1. 2. Fixed Day 3. Fixed Date 4. Final Thoughts Introduction Holiday Factors Past holiday dates are manually entered in Column A. A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Holiday: Martin Luther King DayMon 2016 12 1/18/16 Data 8 9 Days from Holiday: Holiday Date (3) (2) (1) 0 1 2 3 Days from Holiday: Include Week? Week of 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu 1/18/16 12/21/15 3,178,252,379 0 0 1,197,999,223 1,097,307,276 1,086,614,002 488,217,282 0 Leave out due to Xmas 1/19/15 12/28/15 0 0 0 784,023,087 764,691,103 730,781,107 923,372,997 0 1/20/14 1/4/16 0 0 0 1,435,357,143 1,135,552,257 1,382,983,326 1,544,262,490 1 1/21/13 1/11/16 1,461,608,340 0 0 1,430,253,464 1,505,447,511 1,569,583,081 1,627,122,214 1 1/16/12 1/18/16 1,874,180,420 0 0 0 1,571,343,500 1,952,984,008 1,599,879,652 0 1/17/11 1/25/16 1,575,234,372 0 0 1,380,951,298 1,378,239,012 1,501,124,082 1,466,693,994 1 1/18/10 2/1/16 2,000,238,925 0 0 1,371,459,181 1,398,842,713 1,598,733,038 1,611,667,463 1 1/19/09 2/8/16 1,528,772,599 0 0 1,760,112,897 1,538,362,421 1,418,174,869 1,793,683,481 1 1/21/08 2/15/16 1,508,855,866 0 0 0 1,578,101,712 1,593,497,550 1,431,222,815 1 6 Total: Holiday Indices (= Holiday / Given Day ) Determining Outliers 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 Max Allowed Standard Deviations: Count? (Yes = 1, No = 0) 1.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 No. of Std Dev's Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Week of Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu 12/21/15 0.59 0 0 0 1.43 1.80 3.28 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2 6.1 27.7 12/28/15 0 0 0 0 2.05 2.67 1.73 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.6 16.9 8.7 1/4/16 0 0 0 0 1.38 1.41 1.04 0 0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9 1.4 0.2 1 1 1 1 1 1/11/16 1.28 0 0 0 1.04 1.24 0.98 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.4 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1/18/16 1.00 0 0 0 1.00 1.00 1.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 3.6 0.2 1/25/16 1.19 0 0 0 1.14 1.30 1.09 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.9 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2/1/16 0.94 0 0 0 1.12 1.22 0.99 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2/8/16 1.23 0 0 0 1.02 1.38 0.89 0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.0 1.6 1 1 1 1 1 1 2/15/16 1.24 0 0 0 1.00 1.23 1.12 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.9 1.2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Prelim Avg 0.98 0 0 0 1.12 1.30 1.02 Total: 5 6 6 6 5 6 5 Final Avg 1.18 0 0 0 1.06 1.30 1.04 Std Dev 0.50 0 0 0 0.14 0.08 0.08 Holidays Fixed Day: MLKDay 2 - 9

  10. 1. 2. Fixed Day 3. Fixed Date 4. Final Thoughts Introduction Holiday Factors The Week of column identifies the date for each of the 4 weeks preceding & following the holiday. A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Holiday: Martin Luther King DayMon 2016 12 1/18/16 Data 8 9 Days from Holiday: Holiday Date (3) (2) (1) 0 1 2 3 Days from Holiday: Include Week? Week of 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu 1/18/16 12/21/15 3,178,252,379 0 0 1,197,999,223 1,097,307,276 1,086,614,002 488,217,282 0 Leave out due to Xmas 1/19/15 12/28/15 0 0 0 784,023,087 764,691,103 730,781,107 923,372,997 0 1/20/14 1/4/16 0 0 0 1,435,357,143 1,135,552,257 1,382,983,326 1,544,262,490 1 1/21/13 1/11/16 1,461,608,340 0 0 1,430,253,464 1,505,447,511 1,569,583,081 1,627,122,214 1 1/16/12 1/18/16 1,874,180,420 0 0 0 1,571,343,500 1,952,984,008 1,599,879,652 0 1/17/11 1/25/16 1,575,234,372 0 0 1,380,951,298 1,378,239,012 1,501,124,082 1,466,693,994 1 1/18/10 2/1/16 2,000,238,925 0 0 1,371,459,181 1,398,842,713 1,598,733,038 1,611,667,463 1 1/19/09 2/8/16 1,528,772,599 0 0 1,760,112,897 1,538,362,421 1,418,174,869 1,793,683,481 1 1/21/08 2/15/16 1,508,855,866 0 0 0 1,578,101,712 1,593,497,550 1,431,222,815 1 6 Total: Holiday Indices (= Holiday / Given Day ) Determining Outliers 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 Max Allowed Standard Deviations: Count? (Yes = 1, No = 0) 1.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 No. of Std Dev's Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Week of Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu 12/21/15 0.59 0 0 0 1.43 1.80 3.28 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2 6.1 27.7 12/28/15 0 0 0 0 2.05 2.67 1.73 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.6 16.9 8.7 1/4/16 0 0 0 0 1.38 1.41 1.04 0 0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9 1.4 0.2 1 1 1 1 1 1/11/16 1.28 0 0 0 1.04 1.24 0.98 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.4 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1/18/16 1.00 0 0 0 1.00 1.00 1.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 3.6 0.2 1/25/16 1.19 0 0 0 1.14 1.30 1.09 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.9 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2/1/16 0.94 0 0 0 1.12 1.22 0.99 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2/8/16 1.23 0 0 0 1.02 1.38 0.89 0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.0 1.6 1 1 1 1 1 1 2/15/16 1.24 0 0 0 1.00 1.23 1.12 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.9 1.2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Prelim Avg 0.98 0 0 0 1.12 1.30 1.02 Total: 5 6 6 6 5 6 5 Final Avg 1.18 0 0 0 1.06 1.30 1.04 Std Dev 0.50 0 0 0 0.14 0.08 0.08 Holidays Fixed Day: MLKDay 2 - 10

  11. 1. 2. Fixed Day 3. Fixed Date 4. Final Thoughts Introduction Holiday Factors The Week of column and the Days from Holiday row are used to pick up the appropriate data from the NYSE Daily Data file. A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Holiday: Martin Luther King DayMon 2016 12 1/18/16 Data 8 9 Days from Holiday: Holiday Date (3) (2) (1) 0 1 2 3 Days from Holiday: Include Week? Week of 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu 1/18/16 12/21/15 3,178,252,379 0 0 1,197,999,223 1,097,307,276 1,086,614,002 488,217,282 0 Leave out due to Xmas 1/19/15 12/28/15 0 0 0 784,023,087 764,691,103 730,781,107 923,372,997 0 1/20/14 1/4/16 0 0 0 1,435,357,143 1,135,552,257 1,382,983,326 1,544,262,490 1 1/21/13 1/11/16 1,461,608,340 0 0 1,430,253,464 1,505,447,511 1,569,583,081 1,627,122,214 1 1/16/12 1/18/16 1,874,180,420 0 0 0 1,571,343,500 1,952,984,008 1,599,879,652 0 1/17/11 1/25/16 1,575,234,372 0 0 1,380,951,298 1,378,239,012 1,501,124,082 1,466,693,994 1 1/18/10 2/1/16 2,000,238,925 0 0 1,371,459,181 1,398,842,713 1,598,733,038 1,611,667,463 1 1/19/09 2/8/16 1,528,772,599 0 0 1,760,112,897 1,538,362,421 1,418,174,869 1,793,683,481 1 1/21/08 2/15/16 1,508,855,866 0 0 0 1,578,101,712 1,593,497,550 1,431,222,815 1 6 Total: Holiday Indices (= Holiday / Given Day ) Determining Outliers 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 Max Allowed Standard Deviations: Count? (Yes = 1, No = 0) 1.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 No. of Std Dev's Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Week of Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu 12/21/15 0.59 0 0 0 1.43 1.80 3.28 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2 6.1 27.7 12/28/15 0 0 0 0 2.05 2.67 1.73 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.6 16.9 8.7 1/4/16 0 0 0 0 1.38 1.41 1.04 0 0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9 1.4 0.2 1 1 1 1 1 1/11/16 1.28 0 0 0 1.04 1.24 0.98 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.4 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1/18/16 1.00 0 0 0 1.00 1.00 1.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 3.6 0.2 1/25/16 1.19 0 0 0 1.14 1.30 1.09 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.9 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2/1/16 0.94 0 0 0 1.12 1.22 0.99 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2/8/16 1.23 0 0 0 1.02 1.38 0.89 0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.0 1.6 1 1 1 1 1 1 2/15/16 1.24 0 0 0 1.00 1.23 1.12 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.9 1.2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Prelim Avg 0.98 0 0 0 1.12 1.30 1.02 Total: 5 6 6 6 5 6 5 Final Avg 1.18 0 0 0 1.06 1.30 1.04 Std Dev 0.50 0 0 0 0.14 0.08 0.08 Holidays Fixed Day: MLKDay 2 - 11

  12. 1. 2. Fixed Day 3. Fixed Date 4. Final Thoughts Introduction Holiday Factors The Include Week column is used to manually identify if and when there is a week you do not want to count. A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Holiday: Martin Luther King DayMon 2016 12 1/18/16 Data 8 9 Days from Holiday: Holiday Date (3) (2) (1) 0 1 2 3 Days from Holiday: Include Week? Week of 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu 1/18/16 12/21/15 3,178,252,379 0 0 1,197,999,223 1,097,307,276 1,086,614,002 488,217,282 0 Leave out due to Xmas 1/19/15 12/28/15 0 0 0 784,023,087 764,691,103 730,781,107 923,372,997 0 1/20/14 1/4/16 0 0 0 1,435,357,143 1,135,552,257 1,382,983,326 1,544,262,490 1 1/21/13 1/11/16 1,461,608,340 0 0 1,430,253,464 1,505,447,511 1,569,583,081 1,627,122,214 1 1/16/12 1/18/16 1,874,180,420 0 0 0 1,571,343,500 1,952,984,008 1,599,879,652 0 1/17/11 1/25/16 1,575,234,372 0 0 1,380,951,298 1,378,239,012 1,501,124,082 1,466,693,994 1 1/18/10 2/1/16 2,000,238,925 0 0 1,371,459,181 1,398,842,713 1,598,733,038 1,611,667,463 1 1/19/09 2/8/16 1,528,772,599 0 0 1,760,112,897 1,538,362,421 1,418,174,869 1,793,683,481 1 1/21/08 2/15/16 1,508,855,866 0 0 0 1,578,101,712 1,593,497,550 1,431,222,815 1 6 Total: Holiday Indices (= Holiday / Given Day ) Determining Outliers 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 Max Allowed Standard Deviations: Count? (Yes = 1, No = 0) 1.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 No. of Std Dev's Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Week of Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu 12/21/15 0.59 0 0 0 1.43 1.80 3.28 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2 6.1 27.7 12/28/15 0 0 0 0 2.05 2.67 1.73 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.6 16.9 8.7 1/4/16 0 0 0 0 1.38 1.41 1.04 0 0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9 1.4 0.2 1 1 1 1 1 1/11/16 1.28 0 0 0 1.04 1.24 0.98 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.4 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1/18/16 1.00 0 0 0 1.00 1.00 1.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 3.6 0.2 1/25/16 1.19 0 0 0 1.14 1.30 1.09 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.9 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2/1/16 0.94 0 0 0 1.12 1.22 0.99 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2/8/16 1.23 0 0 0 1.02 1.38 0.89 0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.0 1.6 1 1 1 1 1 1 2/15/16 1.24 0 0 0 1.00 1.23 1.12 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.9 1.2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Prelim Avg 0.98 0 0 0 1.12 1.30 1.02 Total: 5 6 6 6 5 6 5 Final Avg 1.18 0 0 0 1.06 1.30 1.04 Std Dev 0.50 0 0 0 0.14 0.08 0.08 Holidays Fixed Day: MLKDay 2 - 12

  13. 1. 2. Fixed Day 3. Fixed Date 4. Final Thoughts Introduction Holiday Factors The Holiday Indices section calculates the degree to which activity in the prior & following weeks differed from the activity during the holiday week. A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Holiday: Martin Luther King DayMon 2016 12 1/18/16 Data 8 9 Days from Holiday: Holiday Date (3) (2) (1) 0 1 2 3 Days from Holiday: Include Week? Week of 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu 1/18/16 12/21/15 3,178,252,379 0 0 1,197,999,223 1,097,307,276 1,086,614,002 488,217,282 0 Leave out due to Xmas 1/19/15 12/28/15 0 0 0 784,023,087 764,691,103 730,781,107 923,372,997 0 1/20/14 1/4/16 0 0 0 1,435,357,143 1,135,552,257 1,382,983,326 1,544,262,490 1 1/21/13 1/11/16 1,461,608,340 0 0 1,430,253,464 1,505,447,511 1,569,583,081 1,627,122,214 1 1/16/12 1/18/16 1,874,180,420 0 0 0 1,571,343,500 1,952,984,008 1,599,879,652 0 1/17/11 1/25/16 1,575,234,372 0 0 1,380,951,298 1,378,239,012 1,501,124,082 1,466,693,994 1 1/18/10 2/1/16 2,000,238,925 0 0 1,371,459,181 1,398,842,713 1,598,733,038 1,611,667,463 1 1/19/09 2/8/16 1,528,772,599 0 0 1,760,112,897 1,538,362,421 1,418,174,869 1,793,683,481 1 1/21/08 2/15/16 1,508,855,866 0 0 0 1,578,101,712 1,593,497,550 1,431,222,815 1 6 Total: Holiday Indices (= Holiday / Given Day ) Determining Outliers 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 Max Allowed Standard Deviations: Count? (Yes = 1, No = 0) 1.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 No. of Std Dev's Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Week of Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu 12/21/15 0.59 0 0 0 1.43 1.80 3.28 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2 6.1 27.7 12/28/15 0 0 0 0 2.05 2.67 1.73 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.6 16.9 8.7 1/4/16 0 0 0 0 1.38 1.41 1.04 0 0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9 1.4 0.2 1 1 1 1 1 1/11/16 1.28 0 0 0 1.04 1.24 0.98 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.4 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1/18/16 1.00 0 0 0 1.00 1.00 1.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 3.6 0.2 1/25/16 1.19 0 0 0 1.14 1.30 1.09 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.9 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2/1/16 0.94 0 0 0 1.12 1.22 0.99 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2/8/16 1.23 0 0 0 1.02 1.38 0.89 0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.0 1.6 1 1 1 1 1 1 2/15/16 1.24 0 0 0 1.00 1.23 1.12 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.9 1.2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Prelim Avg 0.98 0 0 0 1.12 1.30 1.02 Total: 5 6 6 6 5 6 5 Final Avg 1.18 0 0 0 1.06 1.30 1.04 Std Dev 0.50 0 0 0 0.14 0.08 0.08 Holidays Fixed Day: MLKDay 2 - 13

  14. 1. 2. Fixed Day 3. Fixed Date 4. Final Thoughts Introduction Holiday Factors Looking at the Tuesday following the holiday, we see how that day s volume (1.571 billion) compares with the volume on other nearby Tuesdays. A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Holiday: Martin Luther King DayMon 2016 12 1/18/16 Data 8 9 Days from Holiday: Holiday Date (3) (2) (1) 0 1 2 3 Days from Holiday: Include Week? Week of 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu 1/18/16 12/21/15 3,178,252,379 0 0 1,197,999,223 1,097,307,276 1,086,614,002 488,217,282 0 Leave out due to Xmas 1/19/15 12/28/15 0 0 0 784,023,087 764,691,103 730,781,107 923,372,997 0 1/20/14 1/4/16 0 0 0 1,435,357,143 1,135,552,257 1,382,983,326 1,544,262,490 1 1/21/13 1/11/16 1,461,608,340 0 0 1,430,253,464 1,505,447,511 1,569,583,081 1,627,122,214 1 1/16/12 1/18/16 1,874,180,420 0 0 0 1,571,343,500 1,952,984,008 1,599,879,652 0 1/17/11 1/25/16 1,575,234,372 0 0 1,380,951,298 1,378,239,012 1,501,124,082 1,466,693,994 1 1/18/10 2/1/16 2,000,238,925 0 0 1,371,459,181 1,398,842,713 1,598,733,038 1,611,667,463 1 1/19/09 2/8/16 1,528,772,599 0 0 1,760,112,897 1,538,362,421 1,418,174,869 1,793,683,481 1 1/21/08 2/15/16 1,508,855,866 0 0 0 1,578,101,712 1,593,497,550 1,431,222,815 1 6 Total: Holiday Indices (= Holiday / Given Day ) Determining Outliers 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 Max Allowed Standard Deviations: Count? (Yes = 1, No = 0) 1.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 No. of Std Dev's Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Week of Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu 12/21/15 0.59 0 0 0 1.43 1.80 3.28 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2 6.1 27.7 12/28/15 0 0 0 0 2.05 2.67 1.73 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.6 16.9 8.7 1/4/16 0 0 0 0 1.38 1.41 1.04 0 0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9 1.4 0.2 1 1 1 1 1 1/11/16 1.28 0 0 0 1.04 1.24 0.98 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.4 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1/18/16 1.00 0 0 0 1.00 1.00 1.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 3.6 0.2 1/25/16 1.19 0 0 0 1.14 1.30 1.09 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.9 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2/1/16 0.94 0 0 0 1.12 1.22 0.99 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2/8/16 1.23 0 0 0 1.02 1.38 0.89 0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.0 1.6 1 1 1 1 1 1 2/15/16 1.24 0 0 0 1.00 1.23 1.12 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.9 1.2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Prelim Avg 0.98 0 0 0 1.12 1.30 1.02 Total: 5 6 6 6 5 6 5 Final Avg 1.18 0 0 0 1.06 1.30 1.04 Std Dev 0.50 0 0 0 0.14 0.08 0.08 Holidays Fixed Day: MLKDay 2 - 14

  15. 1. 2. Fixed Day 3. Fixed Date 4. Final Thoughts Introduction Holiday Factors Notice how the factors are so much higher compared to the Christmas weeks; that s why we excluded those weeks. A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Holiday: Martin Luther King DayMon 2016 12 1/18/16 Data 8 9 Days from Holiday: Holiday Date (3) (2) (1) 0 1 2 3 Days from Holiday: Include Week? Week of 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu 1/18/16 12/21/15 3,178,252,379 0 0 1,197,999,223 1,097,307,276 1,086,614,002 488,217,282 0 Leave out due to Xmas 1/19/15 12/28/15 0 0 0 784,023,087 764,691,103 730,781,107 923,372,997 0 1/20/14 1/4/16 0 0 0 1,435,357,143 1,135,552,257 1,382,983,326 1,544,262,490 1 1/21/13 1/11/16 1,461,608,340 0 0 1,430,253,464 1,505,447,511 1,569,583,081 1,627,122,214 1 1/16/12 1/18/16 1,874,180,420 0 0 0 1,571,343,500 1,952,984,008 1,599,879,652 0 1/17/11 1/25/16 1,575,234,372 0 0 1,380,951,298 1,378,239,012 1,501,124,082 1,466,693,994 1 1/18/10 2/1/16 2,000,238,925 0 0 1,371,459,181 1,398,842,713 1,598,733,038 1,611,667,463 1 1/19/09 2/8/16 1,528,772,599 0 0 1,760,112,897 1,538,362,421 1,418,174,869 1,793,683,481 1 1/21/08 2/15/16 1,508,855,866 0 0 0 1,578,101,712 1,593,497,550 1,431,222,815 1 6 Total: Holiday Indices (= Holiday / Given Day ) Determining Outliers 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 Max Allowed Standard Deviations: Count? (Yes = 1, No = 0) 1.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 No. of Std Dev's Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Week of Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu 12/21/15 0.59 0 0 0 1.43 1.80 3.28 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2 6.1 27.7 12/28/15 0 0 0 0 2.05 2.67 1.73 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.6 16.9 8.7 1/4/16 0 0 0 0 1.38 1.41 1.04 0 0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9 1.4 0.2 1 1 1 1 1 1/11/16 1.28 0 0 0 1.04 1.24 0.98 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.4 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1/18/16 1.00 0 0 0 1.00 1.00 1.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 3.6 0.2 1/25/16 1.19 0 0 0 1.14 1.30 1.09 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.9 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2/1/16 0.94 0 0 0 1.12 1.22 0.99 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2/8/16 1.23 0 0 0 1.02 1.38 0.89 0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.0 1.6 1 1 1 1 1 1 2/15/16 1.24 0 0 0 1.00 1.23 1.12 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.9 1.2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Prelim Avg 0.98 0 0 0 1.12 1.30 1.02 Total: 5 6 6 6 5 6 5 Final Avg 1.18 0 0 0 1.06 1.30 1.04 Std Dev 0.50 0 0 0 0.14 0.08 0.08 Holidays Fixed Day: MLKDay 2 - 15

  16. 1. 2. Fixed Day 3. Fixed Date 4. Final Thoughts Introduction Holiday Factors The Determining Outliers section identifies outliers. Just as was done with EDF s, standard deviations are used to exclude unwanted data. A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Holiday: Martin Luther King DayMon 2016 12 1/18/16 Data 8 9 Days from Holiday: Holiday Date (3) (2) (1) 0 1 2 3 Days from Holiday: Include Week? Week of 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu 1/18/16 12/21/15 3,178,252,379 0 0 1,197,999,223 1,097,307,276 1,086,614,002 488,217,282 0 Leave out due to Xmas 1/19/15 12/28/15 0 0 0 784,023,087 764,691,103 730,781,107 923,372,997 0 1/20/14 1/4/16 0 0 0 1,435,357,143 1,135,552,257 1,382,983,326 1,544,262,490 1 1/21/13 1/11/16 1,461,608,340 0 0 1,430,253,464 1,505,447,511 1,569,583,081 1,627,122,214 1 1/16/12 1/18/16 1,874,180,420 0 0 0 1,571,343,500 1,952,984,008 1,599,879,652 0 1/17/11 1/25/16 1,575,234,372 0 0 1,380,951,298 1,378,239,012 1,501,124,082 1,466,693,994 1 1/18/10 2/1/16 2,000,238,925 0 0 1,371,459,181 1,398,842,713 1,598,733,038 1,611,667,463 1 1/19/09 2/8/16 1,528,772,599 0 0 1,760,112,897 1,538,362,421 1,418,174,869 1,793,683,481 1 1/21/08 2/15/16 1,508,855,866 0 0 0 1,578,101,712 1,593,497,550 1,431,222,815 1 6 Total: Holiday Indices (= Holiday / Given Day ) Determining Outliers 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 Max Allowed Standard Deviations: Count? (Yes = 1, No = 0) 1.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 No. of Std Dev's Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Week of Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu 12/21/15 0.59 0 0 0 1.43 1.80 3.28 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2 6.1 27.7 12/28/15 0 0 0 0 2.05 2.67 1.73 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.6 16.9 8.7 1/4/16 0 0 0 0 1.38 1.41 1.04 0 0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9 1.4 0.2 1 1 1 1 1 1/11/16 1.28 0 0 0 1.04 1.24 0.98 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.4 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1/18/16 1.00 0 0 0 1.00 1.00 1.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 3.6 0.2 1/25/16 1.19 0 0 0 1.14 1.30 1.09 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.9 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2/1/16 0.94 0 0 0 1.12 1.22 0.99 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2/8/16 1.23 0 0 0 1.02 1.38 0.89 0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.0 1.6 1 1 1 1 1 1 2/15/16 1.24 0 0 0 1.00 1.23 1.12 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.9 1.2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Prelim Avg 0.98 0 0 0 1.12 1.30 1.02 Total: 5 6 6 6 5 6 5 Final Avg 1.18 0 0 0 1.06 1.30 1.04 Std Dev 0.50 0 0 0 0.14 0.08 0.08 Holidays Fixed Day: MLKDay 2 - 16

  17. 1. 2. Fixed Day 3. Fixed Date 4. Final Thoughts Introduction Holiday Factors We again establish the number of acceptable standard deviations, and employ ranges for conditionally formatting the output. A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Holiday: Martin Luther King DayMon 2016 12 1/18/16 Data 8 9 Days from Holiday: Holiday Date (3) (2) (1) 0 1 2 3 Days from Holiday: Include Week? Week of 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu 1/18/16 12/21/15 3,178,252,379 0 0 1,197,999,223 1,097,307,276 1,086,614,002 488,217,282 0 Leave out due to Xmas 1/19/15 12/28/15 0 0 0 784,023,087 764,691,103 730,781,107 923,372,997 0 1/20/14 1/4/16 0 0 0 1,435,357,143 1,135,552,257 1,382,983,326 1,544,262,490 1 1/21/13 1/11/16 1,461,608,340 0 0 1,430,253,464 1,505,447,511 1,569,583,081 1,627,122,214 1 1/16/12 1/18/16 1,874,180,420 0 0 0 1,571,343,500 1,952,984,008 1,599,879,652 0 1/17/11 1/25/16 1,575,234,372 0 0 1,380,951,298 1,378,239,012 1,501,124,082 1,466,693,994 1 1/18/10 2/1/16 2,000,238,925 0 0 1,371,459,181 1,398,842,713 1,598,733,038 1,611,667,463 1 1/19/09 2/8/16 1,528,772,599 0 0 1,760,112,897 1,538,362,421 1,418,174,869 1,793,683,481 1 1/21/08 2/15/16 1,508,855,866 0 0 0 1,578,101,712 1,593,497,550 1,431,222,815 1 6 Total: Holiday Indices (= Holiday / Given Day ) Determining Outliers 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 Max Allowed Standard Deviations: Count? (Yes = 1, No = 0) 1.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 No. of Std Dev's Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Week of Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu 12/21/15 0.59 0 0 0 1.43 1.80 3.28 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2 6.1 27.7 12/28/15 0 0 0 0 2.05 2.67 1.73 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.6 16.9 8.7 1/4/16 0 0 0 0 1.38 1.41 1.04 0 0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9 1.4 0.2 1 1 1 1 1 1/11/16 1.28 0 0 0 1.04 1.24 0.98 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.4 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1/18/16 1.00 0 0 0 1.00 1.00 1.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 3.6 0.2 1/25/16 1.19 0 0 0 1.14 1.30 1.09 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.9 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2/1/16 0.94 0 0 0 1.12 1.22 0.99 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2/8/16 1.23 0 0 0 1.02 1.38 0.89 0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.0 1.6 1 1 1 1 1 1 2/15/16 1.24 0 0 0 1.00 1.23 1.12 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.9 1.2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Prelim Avg 0.98 0 0 0 1.12 1.30 1.02 Total: 5 6 6 6 5 6 5 Final Avg 1.18 0 0 0 1.06 1.30 1.04 Std Dev 0.50 0 0 0 0.14 0.08 0.08 Holidays Fixed Day: MLKDay 2 - 17

  18. 1. 2. Fixed Day 3. Fixed Date 4. Final Thoughts Introduction Holiday Factors The Prelim Avg line calculates the simple average of the Holiday Indices for the weeks to be included. A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Holiday: Martin Luther King DayMon 2016 12 1/18/16 Data 8 9 Days from Holiday: Holiday Date (3) (2) (1) 0 1 2 3 Days from Holiday: Include Week? Week of 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu 1/18/16 12/21/15 3,178,252,379 0 0 1,197,999,223 1,097,307,276 1,086,614,002 488,217,282 0 Leave out due to Xmas 1/19/15 12/28/15 0 0 0 784,023,087 764,691,103 730,781,107 923,372,997 0 1/20/14 1/4/16 0 0 0 1,435,357,143 1,135,552,257 1,382,983,326 1,544,262,490 1 1/21/13 1/11/16 1,461,608,340 0 0 1,430,253,464 1,505,447,511 1,569,583,081 1,627,122,214 1 1/16/12 1/18/16 1,874,180,420 0 0 0 1,571,343,500 1,952,984,008 1,599,879,652 0 1/17/11 1/25/16 1,575,234,372 0 0 1,380,951,298 1,378,239,012 1,501,124,082 1,466,693,994 1 1/18/10 2/1/16 2,000,238,925 0 0 1,371,459,181 1,398,842,713 1,598,733,038 1,611,667,463 1 1/19/09 2/8/16 1,528,772,599 0 0 1,760,112,897 1,538,362,421 1,418,174,869 1,793,683,481 1 1/21/08 2/15/16 1,508,855,866 0 0 0 1,578,101,712 1,593,497,550 1,431,222,815 1 6 Total: Holiday Indices (= Holiday / Given Day ) Determining Outliers 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 Max Allowed Standard Deviations: Count? (Yes = 1, No = 0) 1.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 No. of Std Dev's Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Week of Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu 12/21/15 0.59 0 0 0 1.43 1.80 3.28 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2 6.1 27.7 12/28/15 0 0 0 0 2.05 2.67 1.73 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.6 16.9 8.7 1/4/16 0 0 0 0 1.38 1.41 1.04 0 0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9 1.4 0.2 1 1 1 1 1 1/11/16 1.28 0 0 0 1.04 1.24 0.98 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.4 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1/18/16 1.00 0 0 0 1.00 1.00 1.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 3.6 0.2 1/25/16 1.19 0 0 0 1.14 1.30 1.09 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.9 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2/1/16 0.94 0 0 0 1.12 1.22 0.99 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2/8/16 1.23 0 0 0 1.02 1.38 0.89 0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.0 1.6 1 1 1 1 1 1 2/15/16 1.24 0 0 0 1.00 1.23 1.12 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.9 1.2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Prelim Avg 0.98 0 0 0 1.12 1.30 1.02 Total: 5 6 6 6 5 6 5 Final Avg 1.18 0 0 0 1.06 1.30 1.04 Std Dev 0.50 0 0 0 0.14 0.08 0.08 Holidays Fixed Day: MLKDay 2 - 18

  19. 1. 2. Fixed Day 3. Fixed Date 4. Final Thoughts Introduction Holiday Factors We compare the Tuesday following the holiday with the Tuesday two weeks prior. That week s factor (1.38) is almost two times (1.9) the standard deviation (0.14) from the mean (1.12). A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Holiday: Martin Luther King DayMon 2016 12 1/18/16 Data 8 9 Days from Holiday: Holiday Date (3) (2) (1) 0 1 2 3 Days from Holiday: Include Week? Week of 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu 1/18/16 12/21/15 3,178,252,379 0 0 1,197,999,223 1,097,307,276 1,086,614,002 488,217,282 0 Leave out due to Xmas 1/19/15 12/28/15 0 0 0 784,023,087 764,691,103 730,781,107 923,372,997 0 1/20/14 1/4/16 0 0 0 1,435,357,143 1,135,552,257 1,382,983,326 1,544,262,490 1 1/21/13 1/11/16 1,461,608,340 0 0 1,430,253,464 1,505,447,511 1,569,583,081 1,627,122,214 1 1/16/12 1/18/16 1,874,180,420 0 0 0 1,571,343,500 1,952,984,008 1,599,879,652 0 1/17/11 1/25/16 1,575,234,372 0 0 1,380,951,298 1,378,239,012 1,501,124,082 1,466,693,994 1 1/18/10 2/1/16 2,000,238,925 0 0 1,371,459,181 1,398,842,713 1,598,733,038 1,611,667,463 1 1/19/09 2/8/16 1,528,772,599 0 0 1,760,112,897 1,538,362,421 1,418,174,869 1,793,683,481 1 1/21/08 2/15/16 1,508,855,866 0 0 0 1,578,101,712 1,593,497,550 1,431,222,815 1 6 Total: Holiday Indices (= Holiday / Given Day ) Determining Outliers 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 Max Allowed Standard Deviations: Count? (Yes = 1, No = 0) 1.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 No. of Std Dev's Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Week of Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu 12/21/15 0.59 0 0 0 1.43 1.80 3.28 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2 6.1 27.7 12/28/15 0 0 0 0 2.05 2.67 1.73 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.6 16.9 8.7 1/4/16 0 0 0 0 1.38 1.41 1.04 0 0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9 1.4 0.2 1 1 1 1 1 1/11/16 1.28 0 0 0 1.04 1.24 0.98 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.4 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1/18/16 1.00 0 0 0 1.00 1.00 1.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 3.6 0.2 1/25/16 1.19 0 0 0 1.14 1.30 1.09 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.9 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2/1/16 0.94 0 0 0 1.12 1.22 0.99 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2/8/16 1.23 0 0 0 1.02 1.38 0.89 0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.0 1.6 1 1 1 1 1 1 2/15/16 1.24 0 0 0 1.00 1.23 1.12 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.9 1.2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Prelim Avg 0.98 0 0 0 1.12 1.30 1.02 Total: 5 6 6 6 5 6 5 Final Avg 1.18 0 0 0 1.06 1.30 1.04 Std Dev 0.50 0 0 0 0.14 0.08 0.08 Holidays Fixed Day: MLKDay 2 - 19

  20. 1. 2. Fixed Day 3. Fixed Date 4. Final Thoughts Introduction Holiday Factors So do we count that Tuesday? No, because the number of standard deviations from the mean (1.9) is above the maximum allowed (1.5). A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Holiday: Martin Luther King DayMon 2016 12 1/18/16 Data 8 9 Days from Holiday: Holiday Date (3) (2) (1) 0 1 2 3 Days from Holiday: Include Week? Week of 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu 1/18/16 12/21/15 3,178,252,379 0 0 1,197,999,223 1,097,307,276 1,086,614,002 488,217,282 0 Leave out due to Xmas 1/19/15 12/28/15 0 0 0 784,023,087 764,691,103 730,781,107 923,372,997 0 1/20/14 1/4/16 0 0 0 1,435,357,143 1,135,552,257 1,382,983,326 1,544,262,490 1 1/21/13 1/11/16 1,461,608,340 0 0 1,430,253,464 1,505,447,511 1,569,583,081 1,627,122,214 1 1/16/12 1/18/16 1,874,180,420 0 0 0 1,571,343,500 1,952,984,008 1,599,879,652 0 1/17/11 1/25/16 1,575,234,372 0 0 1,380,951,298 1,378,239,012 1,501,124,082 1,466,693,994 1 1/18/10 2/1/16 2,000,238,925 0 0 1,371,459,181 1,398,842,713 1,598,733,038 1,611,667,463 1 1/19/09 2/8/16 1,528,772,599 0 0 1,760,112,897 1,538,362,421 1,418,174,869 1,793,683,481 1 1/21/08 2/15/16 1,508,855,866 0 0 0 1,578,101,712 1,593,497,550 1,431,222,815 1 6 Total: Holiday Indices (= Holiday / Given Day ) Determining Outliers 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 Max Allowed Standard Deviations: Count? (Yes = 1, No = 0) 1.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 No. of Std Dev's Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Week of Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu 12/21/15 0.59 0 0 0 1.43 1.80 3.28 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2 6.1 27.7 12/28/15 0 0 0 0 2.05 2.67 1.73 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.6 16.9 8.7 1/4/16 0 0 0 0 1.38 1.41 1.04 0 0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9 1.4 0.2 1 1 1 1 1 1/11/16 1.28 0 0 0 1.04 1.24 0.98 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.4 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1/18/16 1.00 0 0 0 1.00 1.00 1.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 3.6 0.2 1/25/16 1.19 0 0 0 1.14 1.30 1.09 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.9 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2/1/16 0.94 0 0 0 1.12 1.22 0.99 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2/8/16 1.23 0 0 0 1.02 1.38 0.89 0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.0 1.6 1 1 1 1 1 1 2/15/16 1.24 0 0 0 1.00 1.23 1.12 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.9 1.2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Prelim Avg 0.98 0 0 0 1.12 1.30 1.02 Total: 5 6 6 6 5 6 5 Final Avg 1.18 0 0 0 1.06 1.30 1.04 Std Dev 0.50 0 0 0 0.14 0.08 0.08 Holidays Fixed Day: MLKDay 2 - 20

  21. 1. 2. Fixed Day 3. Fixed Date 4. Final Thoughts Introduction Holiday Factors We re now ready to calculate the final factors for 2016. A SUMPRODUCT formula is applied that multiplies the indices by the Count value of 0 or 1. A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Holiday: Martin Luther King DayMon 2016 12 1/18/16 Data 8 9 Days from Holiday: Holiday Date (3) (2) (1) 0 1 2 3 Days from Holiday: Include Week? Week of 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu 1/18/16 12/21/15 3,178,252,379 0 0 1,197,999,223 1,097,307,276 1,086,614,002 488,217,282 0 Leave out due to Xmas 1/19/15 12/28/15 0 0 0 784,023,087 764,691,103 730,781,107 923,372,997 0 1/20/14 1/4/16 0 0 0 1,435,357,143 1,135,552,257 1,382,983,326 1,544,262,490 1 1/21/13 1/11/16 1,461,608,340 0 0 1,430,253,464 1,505,447,511 1,569,583,081 1,627,122,214 1 1/16/12 1/18/16 1,874,180,420 0 0 0 1,571,343,500 1,952,984,008 1,599,879,652 0 1/17/11 1/25/16 1,575,234,372 0 0 1,380,951,298 1,378,239,012 1,501,124,082 1,466,693,994 1 1/18/10 2/1/16 2,000,238,925 0 0 1,371,459,181 1,398,842,713 1,598,733,038 1,611,667,463 1 1/19/09 2/8/16 1,528,772,599 0 0 1,760,112,897 1,538,362,421 1,418,174,869 1,793,683,481 1 1/21/08 2/15/16 1,508,855,866 0 0 0 1,578,101,712 1,593,497,550 1,431,222,815 1 6 Total: Holiday Indices (= Holiday / Given Day ) Determining Outliers 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 Max Allowed Standard Deviations: Count? (Yes = 1, No = 0) 1.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 No. of Std Dev's Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Week of Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu 12/21/15 0.59 0 0 0 1.43 1.80 3.28 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2 6.1 27.7 12/28/15 0 0 0 0 2.05 2.67 1.73 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.6 16.9 8.7 1/4/16 0 0 0 0 1.38 1.41 1.04 0 0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9 1.4 0.2 1 1 1 1 1 1/11/16 1.28 0 0 0 1.04 1.24 0.98 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.4 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1/18/16 1.00 0 0 0 1.00 1.00 1.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 3.6 0.2 1/25/16 1.19 0 0 0 1.14 1.30 1.09 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.9 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2/1/16 0.94 0 0 0 1.12 1.22 0.99 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2/8/16 1.23 0 0 0 1.02 1.38 0.89 0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.0 1.6 1 1 1 1 1 1 2/15/16 1.24 0 0 0 1.00 1.23 1.12 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.9 1.2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Prelim Avg 0.98 0 0 0 1.12 1.30 1.02 Total: 5 6 6 6 5 6 5 Final Avg 1.18 0 0 0 1.06 1.30 1.04 Std Dev 0.50 0 0 0 0.14 0.08 0.08 Holidays Fixed Day: MLKDay 2 - 21

  22. 1. 2. Fixed Day 3. Fixed Date 4. Final Thoughts Introduction Holiday Factors These are the final set of factors for 2016. Do they make sense? Wednesday s value looks awfully high, especially as Tuesday was lower. A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Holiday: Martin Luther King DayMon 2016 12 1/18/16 Data 8 9 Days from Holiday: Holiday Date (3) (2) (1) 0 1 2 3 Days from Holiday: Include Week? Week of 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu 1/18/16 12/21/15 3,178,252,379 0 0 1,197,999,223 1,097,307,276 1,086,614,002 488,217,282 0 Leave out due to Xmas 1/19/15 12/28/15 0 0 0 784,023,087 764,691,103 730,781,107 923,372,997 0 1/20/14 1/4/16 0 0 0 1,435,357,143 1,135,552,257 1,382,983,326 1,544,262,490 1 1/21/13 1/11/16 1,461,608,340 0 0 1,430,253,464 1,505,447,511 1,569,583,081 1,627,122,214 1 1/16/12 1/18/16 1,874,180,420 0 0 0 1,571,343,500 1,952,984,008 1,599,879,652 0 1/17/11 1/25/16 1,575,234,372 0 0 1,380,951,298 1,378,239,012 1,501,124,082 1,466,693,994 1 1/18/10 2/1/16 2,000,238,925 0 0 1,371,459,181 1,398,842,713 1,598,733,038 1,611,667,463 1 1/19/09 2/8/16 1,528,772,599 0 0 1,760,112,897 1,538,362,421 1,418,174,869 1,793,683,481 1 1/21/08 2/15/16 1,508,855,866 0 0 0 1,578,101,712 1,593,497,550 1,431,222,815 1 6 Total: Holiday Indices (= Holiday / Given Day ) Determining Outliers 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 Max Allowed Standard Deviations: Count? (Yes = 1, No = 0) 1.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 No. of Std Dev's Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Week of Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu 12/21/15 0.59 0 0 0 1.43 1.80 3.28 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2 6.1 27.7 12/28/15 0 0 0 0 2.05 2.67 1.73 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.6 16.9 8.7 1/4/16 0 0 0 0 1.38 1.41 1.04 0 0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9 1.4 0.2 1 1 1 1 1 1/11/16 1.28 0 0 0 1.04 1.24 0.98 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.4 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1/18/16 1.00 0 0 0 1.00 1.00 1.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 3.6 0.2 1/25/16 1.19 0 0 0 1.14 1.30 1.09 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.9 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2/1/16 0.94 0 0 0 1.12 1.22 0.99 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2/8/16 1.23 0 0 0 1.02 1.38 0.89 0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.0 1.6 1 1 1 1 1 1 2/15/16 1.24 0 0 0 1.00 1.23 1.12 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.9 1.2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Prelim Avg 0.98 0 0 0 1.12 1.30 1.02 Total: 5 6 6 6 5 6 5 Final Avg 1.18 0 0 0 1.06 1.30 1.04 Std Dev 0.50 0 0 0 0.14 0.08 0.08 Holidays Fixed Day: MLKDay 2 - 22

  23. 1. 2. Fixed Day 3. Fixed Date 4. Final Thoughts Introduction Holiday Factors The model is set up to repeat the factor calculations for each of the 9 years of holiday identified in Column A. A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z AA Mon Martin Luther King Day Mon Martin Luther King Day Mon Martin Luther King Day Mon Martin Luther King Day Mon Martin Luther King Day Mon Martin Luther King Day Mon Data Data Data Data Data Data Data HB HC HD HE HF HG HH HI HJ HK HL HM HN HO HP HQ HRHS HT HU HV HW HX HY Holiday: Martin Luther King DayMon Martin Luther King Day Martin Luther King Day Mon Data 2016 2008 12 1/18/16 1/21/08 Data 8 9 Days from Holiday: Holiday Date (3) (2) (1) 0 1 2 3 Days from Holiday: Days from Holiday: Days from Holiday: Days from Holiday: Days from Holiday: Days from Holiday: W e e Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu c e Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu c e Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu c Days from Holiday: Days from Holiday: W e e Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu c e Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu c e Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu c Sun (3) (2) (1) 0 1 2 3 I n W e I n W e I n I n W e I n W e I n W e e Fri Sat Mon Tue Wed Thu I n c Include Week? Include Week? Week of Week of 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu 1/18/16 12/21/15 3,178,252,379 0 0 1,197,999,223 1,097,307,276 1,086,614,002 488,217,282 12/24/07 3,214,993,347 0 0 731,060,592 0 1,162,951,355 1,366,571,384 0 0 Leave out due to Xmas 1/19/15 12/28/15 0 0 0 784,023,087 764,691,103 730,781,107 923,372,997 12/31/07 1,378,372,420 0 0 1,547,778,108 0 2,022,233,225 1,976,744,150 0 0 1/20/14 1/4/16 0 0 0 1,435,357,143 1,135,552,257 1,382,983,326 1,544,262,490 1 1/7/08 2,387,767,436 0 0 2,501,786,029 2,691,172,343 2,968,372,905 3,013,151,214 1 1/21/13 1/11/16 1,461,608,340 0 0 1,430,253,464 1,505,447,511 1,569,583,081 1,627,122,214 1 1/14/08 2,581,457,433 0 0 2,075,142,644 2,625,167,676 3,050,291,666 3,198,733,330 1 1/16/12 1/18/16 1,874,180,420 0 0 0 1,571,343,500 1,952,984,008 1,599,879,652 1/21/08 3,538,909,164 0 0 0 3,790,772,256 4,312,391,886 3,295,670,852 0 0 1/17/11 1/25/16 1,575,234,372 0 0 1,380,951,298 1,378,239,012 1,501,124,082 1,466,693,994 1 1/28/08 2,803,554,252 0 0 2,451,319,564 2,361,551,130 2,705,302,869 3,304,457,458 1 1/18/10 2/1/16 2,000,238,925 0 0 1,371,459,181 1,398,842,713 1,598,733,038 1,611,667,463 1 2/4/08 2,651,126,328 0 0 2,007,384,062 2,586,698,001 2,387,350,688 2,600,091,058 1 1/19/09 2/8/16 1,528,772,599 0 0 1,760,112,897 1,538,362,421 1,418,174,869 1,793,683,481 1 2/11/08 2,202,262,828 0 0 2,129,649,005 2,308,633,508 2,201,523,283 2,107,586,878 1 1/21/08 2/15/16 1,508,855,866 0 0 0 1,578,101,712 1,593,497,550 1,431,222,815 1 2/18/08 2,152,338,073 0 0 0 2,167,442,322 2,271,486,462 2,149,870,382 1 6 6 Total: Total: Total: Total: Total: Total: Total: Total: Determining Outliers Holiday Indices (= Holiday / Given Day ) Determining Outliers Holiday Indices (= Holiday / Given Day ) Determining Outliers Holiday Indices (= Holiday / Given Day ) Holiday Indices (= Holiday / Given Day ) Determining Outliers Holiday Indices (= Holiday / Given Day ) Determining Outliers Determining Outliers Holiday Indices (= Holiday / Given Day ) Determining Outliers Holiday Indices (= Holiday / Given Day ) Determining Outliers Total: Holiday Indices (= Holiday / Given Day ) Holiday Indices (= Holiday / Given Day ) Determining Outliers 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 Max Allowed Standard Deviations: Count? (Yes = 1, No = 0) 1.5 1.0 2.0 Max Allowed Standard Deviations: Max Allowed Standard Deviations: Max Allowed Standard Deviations: Max Allowed Standard Deviations: Max Allowed Standard Deviations: No. of Std Dev's Count? (Yes = 1, No = 0) Count? (Yes = 1, No = 0) 1.5 Max Allowed Standard Deviations: Max Allowed Standard Deviations: Count? (Yes = 1, No = 0) Count? (Yes = 1, No = 0) No. of Std Dev's Count? (Yes = 1, No = 0) No. of Std Dev's No. of Std Dev's No. of Std Dev's Count? (Yes = 1, No = 0) No. of Std Dev's Max Allowed Standard Deviations: Count? (Yes = 1, No = 0) 1.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 No. of Std Dev's Count? (Yes = 1, No = 0) No. of Std Dev's No. of Std Dev's Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Week of Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Week of Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Week of Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Week of Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Week of Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Week of Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Week of Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Week of Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Week of Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu 12/21/15 0.59 0 0 0 1.43 1.80 3.28 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2 6.1 27.7 12/24/07 1.10 0 0 0 0 3.71 2.41 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.6 8.7 4.6 12/28/15 0 0 0 0 2.05 2.67 1.73 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.6 16.9 8.7 12/31/07 2.57 0 0 0 0 2.13 1.67 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.6 1.9 1.7 1/4/16 0 0 0 0 1.38 1.41 1.04 0 0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9 1.4 0.2 1/7/08 1.48 0 0 0 1.41 1.45 1.09 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 1.0 0.6 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1/11/16 1.28 0 0 0 1.04 1.24 0.98 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.4 1/14/08 1.37 0 0 0 1.44 1.41 1.03 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 1.2 0.9 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1/18/16 1.00 0 0 0 1.00 1.00 1.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 3.6 0.2 1/21/08 1.00 0 0 0 1.00 1.00 1.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.1 3.0 1.0 1/25/16 1.19 0 0 0 1.14 1.30 1.09 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.9 1/28/08 1.26 0 0 0 1.61 1.59 1.00 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.4 1.0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2/1/16 0.94 0 0 0 1.12 1.22 0.99 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.3 2/4/08 1.33 0 0 0 1.47 1.81 1.27 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.5 0.1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2/8/16 1.23 0 0 0 1.02 1.38 0.89 0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.0 1.6 2/11/08 1.61 0 0 0 1.64 1.96 1.56 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.2 1.3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2/15/16 1.24 0 0 0 1.00 1.23 1.12 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.9 1.2 2/18/08 1.64 0 0 0 1.75 1.90 1.53 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5 0.9 1.1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Prelim Avg 0.98 0 0 0 1.12 1.30 1.02 Total: Prelim Avg Total: Prelim Avg Total: Prelim Avg Total: Prelim Avg Total: Prelim Avg Total: Prelim Avg Total: Prelim Avg Total: Prelim Avg 1.45 0 0 0 1.55 1.69 1.25 Total: 5 6 6 6 5 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Final Avg 1.18 0 0 0 1.06 1.30 1.04 Final Avg Final Avg Final Avg Final Avg Final Avg Final Avg Final Avg Final Avg 1.45 0 0 0 1.55 1.69 1.25 Std Dev 0.50 0 0 0 0.14 0.08 0.08 Std Dev Std Dev Std Dev Std Dev Std Dev Std Dev Std Dev Std Dev 0.15 0 0 0 0.13 0.23 0.25 Holidays Fixed Day: MLKDay 2 - 23

  24. 1. 2. Fixed Day 3. Fixed Date 4. Final Thoughts Introduction Holiday Factors Weighted average values are calculated for the 9 years of factors we have to work with. A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Weighted Average Values 47 48 49 Max Allowed Standard Deviations, Overall: Count? (Yes = 1, No = 0) 1.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 Annual Holiday Values No. of Std Dev's Year's Weight 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 Holiday Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu 1/18/16 1.18 0 0 0 1.06 1.30 1.04 0 0 0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1/19/15 1.26 0 0 0 1.02 0.94 1.05 0 0 0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.8 0.4 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1/20/14 1.20 0 0 0 1.07 0.84 1.15 0 0 0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.3 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1/21/13 1.43 0 0 0 1.05 1.00 0.92 0 0 0 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.5 1.3 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1/16/12 1.00 0 0 0 1.04 1.02 1.06 0 0 0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.3 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1/17/11 0.97 0 0 0 1.29 1.14 1.17 0 0 0 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1/18/10 0.94 0 0 0 0.95 1.07 1.41 0 0 0 0 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 0.2 2.0 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 1/19/09 1.26 0 0 0 1.28 1.18 0.98 0 0 0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.2 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 1/21/08 1.45 0 0 0 1.55 1.69 1.25 0 0 0 0 0 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.1 2.2 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.6 Average 1.19 0 0 0 1.15 1.13 1.12 Total: 0 0 0 8.0 7.4 7.4 7.2 Wtd Avg 1.18 0 0 0 1.09 1.05 1.07 Std Dev 0.19 0 0 0 0.19 0.25 0.15 Holidays Fixed Day: MLKDay 2 - 24

  25. 1. 2. Fixed Day 3. Fixed Date 4. Final Thoughts Introduction Holiday Factors The weighted average factors are pulled in from each of the 9 years that were evaluated. A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Weighted Average Values 47 48 49 Max Allowed Standard Deviations, Overall: Count? (Yes = 1, No = 0) 1.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 Annual Holiday Values No. of Std Dev's Year's Weight 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 Holiday Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu 1/18/16 1.18 0 0 0 1.06 1.30 1.04 0 0 0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1/19/15 1.26 0 0 0 1.02 0.94 1.05 0 0 0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.8 0.4 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1/20/14 1.20 0 0 0 1.07 0.84 1.15 0 0 0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.3 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1/21/13 1.43 0 0 0 1.05 1.00 0.92 0 0 0 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.5 1.3 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1/16/12 1.00 0 0 0 1.04 1.02 1.06 0 0 0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.3 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1/17/11 0.97 0 0 0 1.29 1.14 1.17 0 0 0 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1/18/10 0.94 0 0 0 0.95 1.07 1.41 0 0 0 0 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 0.2 2.0 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 1/19/09 1.26 0 0 0 1.28 1.18 0.98 0 0 0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.2 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 1/21/08 1.45 0 0 0 1.55 1.69 1.25 0 0 0 0 0 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.1 2.2 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.6 Average 1.19 0 0 0 1.15 1.13 1.12 Total: 0 0 0 8.0 7.4 7.4 7.2 Wtd Avg 1.18 0 0 0 1.09 1.05 1.07 Std Dev 0.19 0 0 0 0.19 0.25 0.15 Holidays Fixed Day: MLKDay 2 - 25

  26. 1. 2. Fixed Day 3. Fixed Date 4. Final Thoughts Introduction Holiday Factors As before, a simple average and standard deviation are calculated for the 9-year dataset. A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Weighted Average Values 47 48 49 Max Allowed Standard Deviations, Overall: Count? (Yes = 1, No = 0) 1.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 Annual Holiday Values No. of Std Dev's Year's Weight 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 Holiday Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu 1/18/16 1.18 0 0 0 1.06 1.30 1.04 0 0 0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1/19/15 1.26 0 0 0 1.02 0.94 1.05 0 0 0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.8 0.4 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1/20/14 1.20 0 0 0 1.07 0.84 1.15 0 0 0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.3 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1/21/13 1.43 0 0 0 1.05 1.00 0.92 0 0 0 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.5 1.3 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1/16/12 1.00 0 0 0 1.04 1.02 1.06 0 0 0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.3 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1/17/11 0.97 0 0 0 1.29 1.14 1.17 0 0 0 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1/18/10 0.94 0 0 0 0.95 1.07 1.41 0 0 0 0 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 0.2 2.0 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 1/19/09 1.26 0 0 0 1.28 1.18 0.98 0 0 0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.2 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 1/21/08 1.45 0 0 0 1.55 1.69 1.25 0 0 0 0 0 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.1 2.2 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.6 Average 1.19 0 0 0 1.15 1.13 1.12 Total: 0 0 0 8.0 7.4 7.4 7.2 Wtd Avg 1.18 0 0 0 1.09 1.05 1.07 Std Dev 0.19 0 0 0 0.19 0.25 0.15 Holidays Fixed Day: MLKDay 2 - 26

  27. 1. 2. Fixed Day 3. Fixed Date 4. Final Thoughts Introduction Holiday Factors Weights are assigned to each of the 9 years, with consideration given to assigning less weight to older years. A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Weighted Average Values 47 48 49 Max Allowed Standard Deviations, Overall: Count? (Yes = 1, No = 0) 1.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 Annual Holiday Values No. of Std Dev's Year's Weight 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 Holiday Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu 1/18/16 1.18 0 0 0 1.06 1.30 1.04 0 0 0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1/19/15 1.26 0 0 0 1.02 0.94 1.05 0 0 0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.8 0.4 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1/20/14 1.20 0 0 0 1.07 0.84 1.15 0 0 0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.3 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1/21/13 1.43 0 0 0 1.05 1.00 0.92 0 0 0 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.5 1.3 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1/16/12 1.00 0 0 0 1.04 1.02 1.06 0 0 0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.3 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1/17/11 0.97 0 0 0 1.29 1.14 1.17 0 0 0 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1/18/10 0.94 0 0 0 0.95 1.07 1.41 0 0 0 0 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 0.2 2.0 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 1/19/09 1.26 0 0 0 1.28 1.18 0.98 0 0 0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.2 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 1/21/08 1.45 0 0 0 1.55 1.69 1.25 0 0 0 0 0 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.1 2.2 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.6 Average 1.19 0 0 0 1.15 1.13 1.12 Total: 0 0 0 8.0 7.4 7.4 7.2 Wtd Avg 1.18 0 0 0 1.09 1.05 1.07 Std Dev 0.19 0 0 0 0.19 0.25 0.15 Holidays Fixed Day: MLKDay 2 - 27

  28. 1. 2. Fixed Day 3. Fixed Date 4. Final Thoughts Introduction Holiday Factors Again, the standard deviation from the mean is employed to determine whether to count a given value. A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Weighted Average Values 47 48 49 Max Allowed Standard Deviations, Overall: Count? (Yes = 1, No = 0) 1.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 Annual Holiday Values No. of Std Dev's Year's Weight 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 Holiday Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu 1/18/16 1.18 0 0 0 1.06 1.30 1.04 0 0 0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1/19/15 1.26 0 0 0 1.02 0.94 1.05 0 0 0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.8 0.4 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1/20/14 1.20 0 0 0 1.07 0.84 1.15 0 0 0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.3 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1/21/13 1.43 0 0 0 1.05 1.00 0.92 0 0 0 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.5 1.3 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1/16/12 1.00 0 0 0 1.04 1.02 1.06 0 0 0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.3 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1/17/11 0.97 0 0 0 1.29 1.14 1.17 0 0 0 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1/18/10 0.94 0 0 0 0.95 1.07 1.41 0 0 0 0 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 0.2 2.0 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 1/19/09 1.26 0 0 0 1.28 1.18 0.98 0 0 0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.2 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 1/21/08 1.45 0 0 0 1.55 1.69 1.25 0 0 0 0 0 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.1 2.2 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.6 Average 1.19 0 0 0 1.15 1.13 1.12 Total: 0 0 0 8.0 7.4 7.4 7.2 Wtd Avg 1.18 0 0 0 1.09 1.05 1.07 Std Dev 0.19 0 0 0 0.19 0.25 0.15 Holidays Fixed Day: MLKDay 2 - 28

  29. 1. 2. Fixed Day 3. Fixed Date 4. Final Thoughts Introduction Holiday Factors Note the weights applied to values that are counted: they are the same amount as the weight assigned in Col. A. A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Weighted Average Values 47 48 49 Max Allowed Standard Deviations, Overall: Count? (Yes = 1, No = 0) 1.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 Annual Holiday Values No. of Std Dev's Year's Weight 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 Holiday Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu 1/18/16 1.18 0 0 0 1.06 1.30 1.04 0 0 0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1/19/15 1.26 0 0 0 1.02 0.94 1.05 0 0 0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.8 0.4 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1/20/14 1.20 0 0 0 1.07 0.84 1.15 0 0 0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.3 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1/21/13 1.43 0 0 0 1.05 1.00 0.92 0 0 0 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.5 1.3 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1/16/12 1.00 0 0 0 1.04 1.02 1.06 0 0 0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.3 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1/17/11 0.97 0 0 0 1.29 1.14 1.17 0 0 0 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1/18/10 0.94 0 0 0 0.95 1.07 1.41 0 0 0 0 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 0.2 2.0 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 1/19/09 1.26 0 0 0 1.28 1.18 0.98 0 0 0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.2 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 1/21/08 1.45 0 0 0 1.55 1.69 1.25 0 0 0 0 0 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.1 2.2 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.6 Average 1.19 0 0 0 1.15 1.13 1.12 Total: 0 0 0 8.0 7.4 7.4 7.2 Wtd Avg 1.18 0 0 0 1.09 1.05 1.07 Std Dev 0.19 0 0 0 0.19 0.25 0.15 Holidays Fixed Day: MLKDay 2 - 29

  30. 1. 2. Fixed Day 3. Fixed Date 4. Final Thoughts Introduction Holiday Factors SUMPRODUCT formulas combine the Annual Holiday Values and the Count values to obtain our Final Weighted Average values. A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Weighted Average Values 47 48 49 Max Allowed Standard Deviations, Overall: Count? (Yes = 1, No = 0) 1.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 Annual Holiday Values No. of Std Dev's Year's Weight 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 Holiday Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu 1/18/16 1.18 0 0 0 1.06 1.30 1.04 0 0 0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1/19/15 1.26 0 0 0 1.02 0.94 1.05 0 0 0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.8 0.4 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1/20/14 1.20 0 0 0 1.07 0.84 1.15 0 0 0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.3 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1/21/13 1.43 0 0 0 1.05 1.00 0.92 0 0 0 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.5 1.3 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1/16/12 1.00 0 0 0 1.04 1.02 1.06 0 0 0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.3 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1/17/11 0.97 0 0 0 1.29 1.14 1.17 0 0 0 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1/18/10 0.94 0 0 0 0.95 1.07 1.41 0 0 0 0 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 0.2 2.0 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 1/19/09 1.26 0 0 0 1.28 1.18 0.98 0 0 0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.2 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 1/21/08 1.45 0 0 0 1.55 1.69 1.25 0 0 0 0 0 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.1 2.2 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.6 Average 1.19 0 0 0 1.15 1.13 1.12 Total: 0 0 0 8.0 7.4 7.4 7.2 Wtd Avg 1.18 0 0 0 1.09 1.05 1.07 Std Dev 0.19 0 0 0 0.19 0.25 0.15 Holidays Fixed Day: MLKDay 2 - 30

  31. 1. 2. Fixed Day 3. Fixed Date 4. Final Thoughts Introduction Holiday Factors But do these final weighted average values make sense? It appears this is just a relatively busy week, perhaps because it s at the start of the year. A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Weighted Average Values 47 48 49 Max Allowed Standard Deviations, Overall: Count? (Yes = 1, No = 0) 1.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 Annual Holiday Values No. of Std Dev's Year's Weight 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 Holiday Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu 1/18/16 1.18 0 0 0 1.06 1.30 1.04 0 0 0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1/19/15 1.26 0 0 0 1.02 0.94 1.05 0 0 0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.8 0.4 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1/20/14 1.20 0 0 0 1.07 0.84 1.15 0 0 0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.3 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1/21/13 1.43 0 0 0 1.05 1.00 0.92 0 0 0 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.5 1.3 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1/16/12 1.00 0 0 0 1.04 1.02 1.06 0 0 0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.3 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1/17/11 0.97 0 0 0 1.29 1.14 1.17 0 0 0 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1/18/10 0.94 0 0 0 0.95 1.07 1.41 0 0 0 0 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 0.2 2.0 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 1/19/09 1.26 0 0 0 1.28 1.18 0.98 0 0 0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.2 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 1/21/08 1.45 0 0 0 1.55 1.69 1.25 0 0 0 0 0 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.1 2.2 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.6 Average 1.19 0 0 0 1.15 1.13 1.12 Total: 0 0 0 8.0 7.4 7.4 7.2 Wtd Avg 1.18 0 0 0 1.09 1.05 1.07 Std Dev 0.19 0 0 0 0.19 0.25 0.15 Holidays Fixed Day: MLKDay 2 - 31

  32. 1. 2. Fixed Day 3. Fixed Date 4. Final Thoughts Introduction Holiday Factors The other fixed day holidays are run. Below is the look at Thanksgiving in 2015, identified here as a Friday (!) holiday. A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Holiday: Thanksgiving Fri 2015 12 11/27/15 Data 8 9 Days from Holiday: Holiday Date (3) (2) (1) 0 1 2 3 Days from Holiday: Include Week? Week of 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon 11/27/15 10/30/15 1,321,256,595 1,428,918,810 1,176,137,628 1,454,761,693 0 0 1,143,455,655 1 11/28/14 11/6/15 1,255,451,359 1,230,797,625 1,188,862,175 1,338,646,485 0 0 1,259,139,875 1 11/29/13 11/13/15 1,126,691,420 1,075,467,172 1,166,617,535 1,258,522,752 0 0 1,142,096,258 1 11/23/12 11/20/15 1,423,820,324 1,209,705,831 1,089,150,213 1,267,636,701 0 0 1,115,732,724 1 11/25/11 11/27/15 1,196,238,779 874,638,093 0 500,494,499 0 0 1,676,864,212 0 11/26/10 12/4/15 1,130,209,715 1,274,491,183 1,344,901,628 1,293,805,152 0 0 1,231,187,754 1 11/27/09 12/11/15 1,282,317,019 1,360,549,195 1,132,005,703 1,334,720,812 0 0 1,426,572,945 1 11/28/08 12/18/15 1,283,151,823 1,360,687,147 1,292,396,733 3,178,252,379 0 0 1,197,999,223 1 11/23/07 12/25/15 1,097,307,276 1,086,614,002 488,217,282 0 0 0 784,023,087 0 7 Total: Holiday Indices (= Holiday / Given Day ) Determining Outliers 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 Max Allowed Standard Deviations: Count? (Yes = 1, No = 0) 1.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 No. of Std Dev's Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Week of Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon 10/30/15 0.91 0.61 0 0.34 0 0 1.47 0.6 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11/6/15 0.95 0.71 0 0.37 0 0 1.33 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.5 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11/13/15 1.06 0.81 0 0.40 0 0 1.47 0 1.3 1.8 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.7 1 1 1 1 1 1 11/20/15 0.84 0.72 0 0.39 0 0 1.50 1.4 0.5 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 1.0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11/27/15 1.00 1.00 0 1.00 0 0 1.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.6 4.6 0.0 7.6 0.0 0.0 3.5 12/4/15 1.06 0.69 0 0.39 0 0 1.36 1.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 12/11/15 0.93 0.64 0 0.37 0 0 1.18 0 0.3 0.7 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.9 1 1 1 1 1 1 12/18/15 0.93 0.64 0 0.16 0 0 1.40 0 0.3 0.7 0.0 2.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 1 1 1 1 1 1 12/25/15 1.09 0.80 0 0 0 0 2.14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.7 1.7 0.0 4.1 0.0 0.0 6.7 Prelim Avg 0.95 0.69 0 0.35 0 0 1.39 Total: 7 6 7 6 7 7 6 Final Avg 0.95 0.67 0 0.38 0 0 1.42 Std Dev 0.08 0.07 0 0.09 0 0 0.11 Holidays Fixed Day: Thanksgiving 2 - 32

  33. 1. 2. Fixed Day 3. Fixed Date 4. Final Thoughts Introduction Holiday Factors Let s look at the changes made for this holiday. First, the title is modified, as well as the day of the week. A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Holiday: Thanksgiving Fri 2015 12 11/27/15 Data 8 9 Days from Holiday: Holiday Date (3) (2) (1) 0 1 2 3 Days from Holiday: Include Week? Week of 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon 11/27/15 10/30/15 1,321,256,595 1,428,918,810 1,176,137,628 1,454,761,693 0 0 1,143,455,655 1 11/28/14 11/6/15 1,255,451,359 1,230,797,625 1,188,862,175 1,338,646,485 0 0 1,259,139,875 1 11/29/13 11/13/15 1,126,691,420 1,075,467,172 1,166,617,535 1,258,522,752 0 0 1,142,096,258 1 11/23/12 11/20/15 1,423,820,324 1,209,705,831 1,089,150,213 1,267,636,701 0 0 1,115,732,724 1 11/25/11 11/27/15 1,196,238,779 874,638,093 0 500,494,499 0 0 1,676,864,212 0 11/26/10 12/4/15 1,130,209,715 1,274,491,183 1,344,901,628 1,293,805,152 0 0 1,231,187,754 1 11/27/09 12/11/15 1,282,317,019 1,360,549,195 1,132,005,703 1,334,720,812 0 0 1,426,572,945 1 11/28/08 12/18/15 1,283,151,823 1,360,687,147 1,292,396,733 3,178,252,379 0 0 1,197,999,223 1 11/23/07 12/25/15 1,097,307,276 1,086,614,002 488,217,282 0 0 0 784,023,087 0 7 Total: Holiday Indices (= Holiday / Given Day ) Determining Outliers 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 Holidays Fixed Day: Thanksgiving Max Allowed Standard Deviations: Count? (Yes = 1, No = 0) 1.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 No. of Std Dev's Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Week of Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon 10/30/15 0.91 0.61 0 0.34 0 0 1.47 0.6 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11/6/15 0.95 0.71 0 0.37 0 0 1.33 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.5 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11/13/15 1.06 0.81 0 0.40 0 0 1.47 0 1.3 1.8 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.7 1 1 1 1 1 1 11/20/15 0.84 0.72 0 0.39 0 0 1.50 1.4 0.5 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 1.0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11/27/15 1.00 1.00 0 1.00 0 0 1.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.6 4.6 0.0 7.6 0.0 0.0 3.5 12/4/15 1.06 0.69 0 0.39 0 0 1.36 1.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 12/11/15 0.93 0.64 0 0.37 0 0 1.18 0 0.3 0.7 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.9 1 1 1 1 1 1 12/18/15 0.93 0.64 0 0.16 0 0 1.40 0 0.3 0.7 0.0 2.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 1 1 1 1 1 1 12/25/15 1.09 0.80 0 0 0 0 2.14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.7 1.7 0.0 4.1 0.0 0.0 6.7 Prelim Avg 0.95 0.69 0 0.35 0 0 1.39 Total: 7 6 7 6 7 7 6 Final Avg 0.95 0.67 0 0.38 0 0 1.42 Std Dev 0.08 0.07 0 0.09 0 0 0.11 2 - 33

  34. 1. 2. Fixed Day 3. Fixed Date 4. Final Thoughts Introduction Holiday Factors Next, the critical holiday dates are input. Note that the dates here correspond to the date of the holiday, still treating it as a Friday holiday. A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Holiday: Thanksgiving Fri 2015 12 11/27/15 Data 8 9 Days from Holiday: Holiday Date (3) (2) (1) 0 1 2 3 Days from Holiday: Include Week? Week of 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon 11/27/15 10/30/15 1,321,256,595 1,428,918,810 1,176,137,628 1,454,761,693 0 0 1,143,455,655 1 11/28/14 11/6/15 1,255,451,359 1,230,797,625 1,188,862,175 1,338,646,485 0 0 1,259,139,875 1 11/29/13 11/13/15 1,126,691,420 1,075,467,172 1,166,617,535 1,258,522,752 0 0 1,142,096,258 1 11/23/12 11/20/15 1,423,820,324 1,209,705,831 1,089,150,213 1,267,636,701 0 0 1,115,732,724 1 11/25/11 11/27/15 1,196,238,779 874,638,093 0 500,494,499 0 0 1,676,864,212 0 11/26/10 12/4/15 1,130,209,715 1,274,491,183 1,344,901,628 1,293,805,152 0 0 1,231,187,754 1 11/27/09 12/11/15 1,282,317,019 1,360,549,195 1,132,005,703 1,334,720,812 0 0 1,426,572,945 1 11/28/08 12/18/15 1,283,151,823 1,360,687,147 1,292,396,733 3,178,252,379 0 0 1,197,999,223 1 11/23/07 12/25/15 1,097,307,276 1,086,614,002 488,217,282 0 0 0 784,023,087 0 7 Total: Holiday Indices (= Holiday / Given Day ) Determining Outliers 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 Holidays Fixed Day: Thanksgiving Max Allowed Standard Deviations: Count? (Yes = 1, No = 0) 1.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 No. of Std Dev's Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Week of Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon 10/30/15 0.91 0.61 0 0.34 0 0 1.47 0.6 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11/6/15 0.95 0.71 0 0.37 0 0 1.33 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.5 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11/13/15 1.06 0.81 0 0.40 0 0 1.47 0 1.3 1.8 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.7 1 1 1 1 1 1 11/20/15 0.84 0.72 0 0.39 0 0 1.50 1.4 0.5 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 1.0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11/27/15 1.00 1.00 0 1.00 0 0 1.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.6 4.6 0.0 7.6 0.0 0.0 3.5 12/4/15 1.06 0.69 0 0.39 0 0 1.36 1.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 12/11/15 0.93 0.64 0 0.37 0 0 1.18 0 0.3 0.7 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.9 1 1 1 1 1 1 12/18/15 0.93 0.64 0 0.16 0 0 1.40 0 0.3 0.7 0.0 2.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 1 1 1 1 1 1 12/25/15 1.09 0.80 0 0 0 0 2.14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.7 1.7 0.0 4.1 0.0 0.0 6.7 Prelim Avg 0.95 0.69 0 0.35 0 0 1.39 Total: 7 6 7 6 7 7 6 Final Avg 0.95 0.67 0 0.38 0 0 1.42 Std Dev 0.08 0.07 0 0.09 0 0 0.11 2 - 34

  35. 1. 2. Fixed Day 3. Fixed Date 4. Final Thoughts Introduction Holiday Factors Next, the data is reviewed to see if any weeks should be excluded, as is done here for Christmas. A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Holiday: Thanksgiving Fri 2015 12 11/27/15 Data 8 9 Days from Holiday: Holiday Date (3) (2) (1) 0 1 2 3 Days from Holiday: Include Week? Week of 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon 11/27/15 10/30/15 1,321,256,595 1,428,918,810 1,176,137,628 1,454,761,693 0 0 1,143,455,655 1 11/28/14 11/6/15 1,255,451,359 1,230,797,625 1,188,862,175 1,338,646,485 0 0 1,259,139,875 1 11/29/13 11/13/15 1,126,691,420 1,075,467,172 1,166,617,535 1,258,522,752 0 0 1,142,096,258 1 11/23/12 11/20/15 1,423,820,324 1,209,705,831 1,089,150,213 1,267,636,701 0 0 1,115,732,724 1 11/25/11 11/27/15 1,196,238,779 874,638,093 0 500,494,499 0 0 1,676,864,212 0 11/26/10 12/4/15 1,130,209,715 1,274,491,183 1,344,901,628 1,293,805,152 0 0 1,231,187,754 1 11/27/09 12/11/15 1,282,317,019 1,360,549,195 1,132,005,703 1,334,720,812 0 0 1,426,572,945 1 11/28/08 12/18/15 1,283,151,823 1,360,687,147 1,292,396,733 3,178,252,379 0 0 1,197,999,223 1 11/23/07 12/25/15 1,097,307,276 1,086,614,002 488,217,282 0 0 0 784,023,087 0 7 Total: Holiday Indices (= Holiday / Given Day ) Determining Outliers 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 Holidays Fixed Day: Thanksgiving Max Allowed Standard Deviations: Count? (Yes = 1, No = 0) 1.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 No. of Std Dev's Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Week of Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon 10/30/15 0.91 0.61 0 0.34 0 0 1.47 0.6 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11/6/15 0.95 0.71 0 0.37 0 0 1.33 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.5 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11/13/15 1.06 0.81 0 0.40 0 0 1.47 0 1.3 1.8 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.7 1 1 1 1 1 1 11/20/15 0.84 0.72 0 0.39 0 0 1.50 1.4 0.5 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 1.0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11/27/15 1.00 1.00 0 1.00 0 0 1.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.6 4.6 0.0 7.6 0.0 0.0 3.5 12/4/15 1.06 0.69 0 0.39 0 0 1.36 1.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 12/11/15 0.93 0.64 0 0.37 0 0 1.18 0 0.3 0.7 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.9 1 1 1 1 1 1 12/18/15 0.93 0.64 0 0.16 0 0 1.40 0 0.3 0.7 0.0 2.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 1 1 1 1 1 1 12/25/15 1.09 0.80 0 0 0 0 2.14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.7 1.7 0.0 4.1 0.0 0.0 6.7 Prelim Avg 0.95 0.69 0 0.35 0 0 1.39 Total: 7 6 7 6 7 7 6 Final Avg 0.95 0.67 0 0.38 0 0 1.42 Std Dev 0.08 0.07 0 0.09 0 0 0.11 2 - 35

  36. 1. 2. Fixed Day 3. Fixed Date 4. Final Thoughts Introduction Holiday Factors One important change may be necessary, depending on whether the holiday falls on a different day of the week: day of week headings may need change. A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Holiday: Thanksgiving Fri 2015 12 11/27/15 Data 8 9 Days from Holiday: Holiday Date (3) (2) (1) 0 1 2 3 Days from Holiday: Include Week? Week of 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon 11/27/15 10/30/15 1,321,256,595 1,428,918,810 1,176,137,628 1,454,761,693 0 0 1,143,455,655 1 11/28/14 11/6/15 1,255,451,359 1,230,797,625 1,188,862,175 1,338,646,485 0 0 1,259,139,875 1 11/29/13 11/13/15 1,126,691,420 1,075,467,172 1,166,617,535 1,258,522,752 0 0 1,142,096,258 1 11/23/12 11/20/15 1,423,820,324 1,209,705,831 1,089,150,213 1,267,636,701 0 0 1,115,732,724 1 11/25/11 11/27/15 1,196,238,779 874,638,093 0 500,494,499 0 0 1,676,864,212 0 11/26/10 12/4/15 1,130,209,715 1,274,491,183 1,344,901,628 1,293,805,152 0 0 1,231,187,754 1 11/27/09 12/11/15 1,282,317,019 1,360,549,195 1,132,005,703 1,334,720,812 0 0 1,426,572,945 1 11/28/08 12/18/15 1,283,151,823 1,360,687,147 1,292,396,733 3,178,252,379 0 0 1,197,999,223 1 11/23/07 12/25/15 1,097,307,276 1,086,614,002 488,217,282 0 0 0 784,023,087 0 7 Total: Holiday Indices (= Holiday / Given Day ) Determining Outliers 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 Holidays Fixed Day: Thanksgiving Max Allowed Standard Deviations: Count? (Yes = 1, No = 0) 1.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 No. of Std Dev's Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Week of Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon 10/30/15 0.91 0.61 0 0.34 0 0 1.47 0.6 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11/6/15 0.95 0.71 0 0.37 0 0 1.33 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.5 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11/13/15 1.06 0.81 0 0.40 0 0 1.47 0 1.3 1.8 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.7 1 1 1 1 1 1 11/20/15 0.84 0.72 0 0.39 0 0 1.50 1.4 0.5 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 1.0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11/27/15 1.00 1.00 0 1.00 0 0 1.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.6 4.6 0.0 7.6 0.0 0.0 3.5 12/4/15 1.06 0.69 0 0.39 0 0 1.36 1.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 12/11/15 0.93 0.64 0 0.37 0 0 1.18 0 0.3 0.7 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.9 1 1 1 1 1 1 12/18/15 0.93 0.64 0 0.16 0 0 1.40 0 0.3 0.7 0.0 2.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 1 1 1 1 1 1 12/25/15 1.09 0.80 0 0 0 0 2.14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.7 1.7 0.0 4.1 0.0 0.0 6.7 Prelim Avg 0.95 0.69 0 0.35 0 0 1.39 Total: 7 6 7 6 7 7 6 Final Avg 0.95 0.67 0 0.38 0 0 1.42 Std Dev 0.08 0.07 0 0.09 0 0 0.11 2 - 36

  37. 1. 2. Fixed Day 3. Fixed Date 4. Final Thoughts Introduction Holiday Factors The seven standard changes made for Thanksgiving are the same as you would make if you need to add any other holiday. A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Holiday: Thanksgiving Fri 2015 12 11/27/15 Data 8 9 Days from Holiday: Holiday Date (3) (2) (1) 0 1 2 3 Days from Holiday: Include Week? Week of 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon 11/27/15 10/30/15 1,321,256,595 1,428,918,810 1,176,137,628 1,454,761,693 0 0 1,143,455,655 1 11/28/14 11/6/15 1,255,451,359 1,230,797,625 1,188,862,175 1,338,646,485 0 0 1,259,139,875 1 11/29/13 11/13/15 1,126,691,420 1,075,467,172 1,166,617,535 1,258,522,752 0 0 1,142,096,258 1 11/23/12 11/20/15 1,423,820,324 1,209,705,831 1,089,150,213 1,267,636,701 0 0 1,115,732,724 1 11/25/11 11/27/15 1,196,238,779 874,638,093 0 500,494,499 0 0 1,676,864,212 0 11/26/10 12/4/15 1,130,209,715 1,274,491,183 1,344,901,628 1,293,805,152 0 0 1,231,187,754 1 11/27/09 12/11/15 1,282,317,019 1,360,549,195 1,132,005,703 1,334,720,812 0 0 1,426,572,945 1 11/28/08 12/18/15 1,283,151,823 1,360,687,147 1,292,396,733 3,178,252,379 0 0 1,197,999,223 1 11/23/07 12/25/15 1,097,307,276 1,086,614,002 488,217,282 0 0 0 784,023,087 0 7 Total: Holiday Indices (= Holiday / Given Day ) Determining Outliers 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 Holidays Fixed Day: Thanksgiving Max Allowed Standard Deviations: Count? (Yes = 1, No = 0) 1.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 No. of Std Dev's Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Week of Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon 10/30/15 0.91 0.61 0 0.34 0 0 1.47 0.6 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11/6/15 0.95 0.71 0 0.37 0 0 1.33 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.5 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11/13/15 1.06 0.81 0 0.40 0 0 1.47 0 1.3 1.8 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.7 1 1 1 1 1 1 11/20/15 0.84 0.72 0 0.39 0 0 1.50 1.4 0.5 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 1.0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11/27/15 1.00 1.00 0 1.00 0 0 1.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.6 4.6 0.0 7.6 0.0 0.0 3.5 12/4/15 1.06 0.69 0 0.39 0 0 1.36 1.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 12/11/15 0.93 0.64 0 0.37 0 0 1.18 0 0.3 0.7 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.9 1 1 1 1 1 1 12/18/15 0.93 0.64 0 0.16 0 0 1.40 0 0.3 0.7 0.0 2.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 1 1 1 1 1 1 12/25/15 1.09 0.80 0 0 0 0 2.14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.7 1.7 0.0 4.1 0.0 0.0 6.7 Prelim Avg 0.95 0.69 0 0.35 0 0 1.39 Total: 7 6 7 6 7 7 6 Final Avg 0.95 0.67 0 0.38 0 0 1.42 Std Dev 0.08 0.07 0 0.09 0 0 0.11 2 - 37

  38. 1. 2. Fixed Day 3. Fixed Date 4. Final Thoughts Introduction Holiday Factors The output is much as one would expect, with Thursday s holiday factor at 0, the Friday value very low, and the following Monday well above 1.0. A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Holiday: Thanksgiving Fri 2015 12 11/27/15 Data 8 9 Days from Holiday: Holiday Date (3) (2) (1) 0 1 2 3 Days from Holiday: Include Week? Week of 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon 11/27/15 10/30/15 1,321,256,595 1,428,918,810 1,176,137,628 1,454,761,693 0 0 1,143,455,655 1 11/28/14 11/6/15 1,255,451,359 1,230,797,625 1,188,862,175 1,338,646,485 0 0 1,259,139,875 1 11/29/13 11/13/15 1,126,691,420 1,075,467,172 1,166,617,535 1,258,522,752 0 0 1,142,096,258 1 11/23/12 11/20/15 1,423,820,324 1,209,705,831 1,089,150,213 1,267,636,701 0 0 1,115,732,724 1 11/25/11 11/27/15 1,196,238,779 874,638,093 0 500,494,499 0 0 1,676,864,212 0 11/26/10 12/4/15 1,130,209,715 1,274,491,183 1,344,901,628 1,293,805,152 0 0 1,231,187,754 1 11/27/09 12/11/15 1,282,317,019 1,360,549,195 1,132,005,703 1,334,720,812 0 0 1,426,572,945 1 11/28/08 12/18/15 1,283,151,823 1,360,687,147 1,292,396,733 3,178,252,379 0 0 1,197,999,223 1 11/23/07 12/25/15 1,097,307,276 1,086,614,002 488,217,282 0 0 0 784,023,087 0 7 Total: Holiday Indices (= Holiday / Given Day ) Determining Outliers 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 Holidays Fixed Day: Thanksgiving Max Allowed Standard Deviations: Count? (Yes = 1, No = 0) 1.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 No. of Std Dev's Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Week of Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon 10/30/15 0.91 0.61 0 0.34 0 0 1.47 0.6 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11/6/15 0.95 0.71 0 0.37 0 0 1.33 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.5 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11/13/15 1.06 0.81 0 0.40 0 0 1.47 0 1.3 1.8 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.7 1 1 1 1 1 1 11/20/15 0.84 0.72 0 0.39 0 0 1.50 1.4 0.5 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 1.0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11/27/15 1.00 1.00 0 1.00 0 0 1.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.6 4.6 0.0 7.6 0.0 0.0 3.5 12/4/15 1.06 0.69 0 0.39 0 0 1.36 1.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 12/11/15 0.93 0.64 0 0.37 0 0 1.18 0 0.3 0.7 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.9 1 1 1 1 1 1 12/18/15 0.93 0.64 0 0.16 0 0 1.40 0 0.3 0.7 0.0 2.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 1 1 1 1 1 1 12/25/15 1.09 0.80 0 0 0 0 2.14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.7 1.7 0.0 4.1 0.0 0.0 6.7 Prelim Avg 0.95 0.69 0 0.35 0 0 1.39 Total: 7 6 7 6 7 7 6 Final Avg 0.95 0.67 0 0.38 0 0 1.42 Std Dev 0.08 0.07 0 0.09 0 0 0.11 2 - 38

  39. 1. 2. Fixed Day 3. Fixed Date 4. Final Thoughts Introduction Holiday Factors Memorial Day is an example of why you must review the Annual Holiday Values to ensure they are all reasonable. A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Weighted Average Values 47 48 49 Max Allowed Standard Deviations, Overall: Count? (Yes = 1, No = 0) 1.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 Annual Holiday Values No. of Std Dev's Year's Weight 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 Holiday Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu 5/30/16 0.78 0 0 0 1.46 0.99 1.09 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 5/25/15 0.77 0 0 0 1.06 0.98 0.89 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 5/26/14 0.78 0 0 0 0.97 1.01 0.84 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.3 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 5/27/13 0.80 0 0 0 1.05 1.00 1.00 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 5/28/12 0.67 0 0 0 0.90 0.93 1.47 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.6 2.4 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 5/30/11 0.68 0 0 0 1.56 1.19 1.03 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9 2.3 0.1 0.9 0.9 0.9 5/31/10 0.73 0 0 0 0.91 0.91 0.90 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 5/25/09 0.67 0 0 0 1.00 0.95 1.01 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 5/26/08 0.86 0 0 0 0.90 0.86 0.92 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 1.2 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 Average 0.75 0 0 0 1.09 0.98 1.02 Total: 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.4 7.1 7.1 7.0 Wtd Avg 0.74 0 0 0 1.04 0.96 0.96 Std Dev 0.07 0 0 0 0.25 0.09 0.19 Holidays Fixed Day: MemDay 2 - 39

  40. 1. 2. Fixed Day 3. Fixed Date 4. Final Thoughts Introduction Holiday Factors Some of the values are much higher. Why? Because they fall on the last business day of the month, & activity is always higher that day, every month. A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Weighted Average Values 47 48 49 Max Allowed Standard Deviations, Overall: Count? (Yes = 1, No = 0) 1.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 Annual Holiday Values No. of Std Dev's Year's Weight 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 Holiday Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu 5/30/16 0.78 0 0 0 1.46 0.99 1.09 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 5/25/15 0.77 0 0 0 1.06 0.98 0.89 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 5/26/14 0.78 0 0 0 0.97 1.01 0.84 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.3 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 5/27/13 0.80 0 0 0 1.05 1.00 1.00 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 5/28/12 0.67 0 0 0 0.90 0.93 1.47 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.6 2.4 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 5/30/11 0.68 0 0 0 1.56 1.19 1.03 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9 2.3 0.1 0.9 0.9 0.9 5/31/10 0.73 0 0 0 0.91 0.91 0.90 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 5/25/09 0.67 0 0 0 1.00 0.95 1.01 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 5/26/08 0.86 0 0 0 0.90 0.86 0.92 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 1.2 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 Average 0.75 0 0 0 1.09 0.98 1.02 Total: 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.4 7.1 7.1 7.0 Wtd Avg 0.74 0 0 0 1.04 0.96 0.96 Std Dev 0.07 0 0 0 0.25 0.09 0.19 Holidays Fixed Day: MemDay 2 - 40

  41. 1. 2. Fixed Day 3. Fixed Date 4. Final Thoughts Introduction Holiday Factors Deleting these cells not only ensures they won t be counted, but also helps keep down the standard deviation. A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Weighted Average Values 47 48 49 Max Allowed Standard Deviations, Overall: Count? (Yes = 1, No = 0) 1.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 Annual Holiday Values No. of Std Dev's Year's Weight 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 Holiday Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu 5/30/16 0.78 0 0 0 0.99 1.09 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.9 0.1 1.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 5/25/15 0.77 0 0 0 1.06 0.98 0.89 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 0.0 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 5/26/14 0.78 0 0 0 0.97 1.01 0.84 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.4 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 5/27/13 0.80 0 0 0 1.05 1.00 1.00 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 5/28/12 0.67 0 0 0 0.90 0.93 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 0.6 11.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 5/30/11 0.68 0 0 0 1.19 1.03 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.9 2.3 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 5/31/10 0.73 0 0 0 0.91 0.91 0.90 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 5/25/09 0.67 0 0 0 1.00 0.95 1.01 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 5/26/08 0.86 0 0 0 0.90 0.86 0.92 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.2 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 Average 0.75 0 0 0 0.97 0.98 0.96 Total: 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.4 6.1 7.1 6.0 Wtd Avg 0.74 0 0 0 0.98 0.96 0.94 Std Dev 0.07 0 0 0 0.07 0.09 0.08 Holidays Fixed Day: MemDay 2 - 41

  42. 1. 2. Fixed Day 3. Fixed Date 4. Final Thoughts Introduction Holiday Factors Columbus Day needed to have the 2008 values removed. They were all well above the other years values, thanks to that year s stock market crisis. A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Before Weighted Average Values 47 48 49 Max Allowed Standard Deviations, Overall: Count? (Yes = 1, No = 0) 1.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 Annual Holiday Values No. of Std Dev's Year's Weight 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 Holiday Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu 10/12/15 0.91 0 0 0.79 0.90 0.93 1.01 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 10/13/14 1.23 0 0 1.29 1.27 1.68 1.48 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 1.5 1.3 2.2 1.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 10/14/13 0.88 0 0 0.89 0.98 1.05 1.02 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 10/8/12 0.79 0 0 0.72 0.95 0.89 1.01 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.2 0.7 0.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 10/10/11 1.11 0 0 0.95 0.83 0.98 0.84 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.4 1.4 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 10/11/10 0.78 0 0 0.83 0.87 1.19 1.16 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 10/12/09 0.75 0 0 0.83 0.88 1.01 0.98 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 10/13/08 1.95 0 0 1.35 1.42 1.26 1.35 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.4 0.0 0.0 1.8 2.1 0.7 1.2 0.7 0.7 0.7 10/8/07 0.86 0 0 0.61 0.88 0.78 1.16 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 1.2 0.6 1.2 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 Average 1.03 0 0 0.92 1.00 1.09 1.11 Total: 0.0 0.0 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.0 7.0 Wtd Avg 0.92 0 0 0.88 0.95 1.01 1.05 Std Dev 0.38 0 0 0.25 0.20 0.27 0.20 After A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Weighted Average Values 47 48 49 Max Allowed Standard Deviations, Overall: Count? (Yes = 1, No = 0) 1.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 Annual Holiday Values No. of Std Dev's Year's Weight 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 Holiday Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu 10/12/15 0.91 0 0 0.79 0.90 0.93 1.01 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.4 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 10/13/14 1.23 0 0 1.29 1.27 1.68 1.48 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9 0.0 0.0 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.1 1.0 10/14/13 0.88 0 0 0.89 0.98 1.05 1.02 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 10/8/12 0.79 0 0 0.72 0.95 0.89 1.01 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.6 0.4 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 10/10/11 1.11 0 0 0.95 0.83 0.98 0.84 0.0 0.0 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.3 1.3 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 10/11/10 0.78 0 0 0.83 0.87 1.19 1.16 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 10/12/09 0.75 0 0 0.83 0.88 1.01 0.98 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 10/13/08 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.4 0.0 0.0 4.3 6.8 3.9 5.7 0.0 10/8/07 0.86 0 0 0.61 0.88 0.78 1.16 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.3 0.5 1.0 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 Average 0.91 0 0 0.86 0.94 1.06 1.08 Total: 0.0 0.0 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 Wtd Avg 0.87 0 0 0.81 0.90 0.99 1.02 Std Dev 0.17 0 0 0.20 0.14 0.28 0.19 Holidays Fixed Day: MemDay 2 - 42

  43. 1. 2. Fixed Day 3. Fixed Date 4. Final Thoughts Introduction Holiday Factors Thanksgiving also saw a high value, here on the Monday following the holiday in 2015. But it was not counted, by formula. A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Weighted Average Values 47 48 49 Max Allowed Standard Deviations, Overall: Count? (Yes = 1, No = 0) 1.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 Annual Holiday Values No. of Std Dev's Year's Weight 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 Holidays Fixed Day: Thanksgiving Holiday Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon 11/27/15 0.95 0.67 0 0.38 0 0 1.42 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 2.2 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 11/28/14 1.05 0.89 0 0.72 0 0 1.17 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.0 1.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 11/29/13 1.19 0.75 0 0.62 0 0 1.02 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.4 0.0 1.1 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 11/23/12 0.95 0.70 0 0.45 0 0 1.07 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 11/25/11 1.00 0.85 0 0.49 0 0 1.14 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 11/26/10 0.94 0.73 0 0.39 0 0 1.01 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.9 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 11/27/09 0.77 0.66 0 0.55 0 0 1.17 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6 1.1 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 11/28/08 1.20 0.98 0 0.44 0 0 1.23 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 1.5 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 11/23/07 1.34 0.96 0 0.38 0 0 1.06 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7 1.3 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 Average 1.04 0.80 0 0.49 0 0 1.14 Total: 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.6 8.0 7.0 7.0 Wtd Avg 1.03 0.79 0 0.47 0 0 1.11 Std Dev 0.17 0.12 0 0.12 0 0 0.13 2 - 43

  44. 1. 2. Fixed Day 3. Fixed Date 4. Final Thoughts Introduction Holiday Factors All the Fixed Day holiday factors are picked up in a separate Sum tab; Final Results modify the values, where deemed appropriate. A Fixed Day Holiday Factors: Summary Table B C D E F G H I 12 Initial Results 9 M L King Day Presidents' Day Good Friday Memorial Day Labor Day Columbus Day Thanksgiving 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 "Date" 1.18 0.95 0.96 0.74 0.90 0.87 1.03 Holiday -3 0 0 0.94 0 0 0 0.79 Holiday -2 0 0 0.97 0 0 0 0 Holiday -1 0 0 0 0 0 0.81 0.47 Holiday 1.09 1.00 0 1.04 1.00 0.90 0 Holiday +1 1.05 1.01 0 0.96 0.95 0.99 0 Holiday +2 1.07 0.97 0.89 0.96 1.03 1.02 1.11 Holiday +3 Sum 4.40 3.93 3.77 3.71 3.88 4.59 3.39 Final Results 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 "Date" 1.18 0.95 0.96 0.74 0.90 0.87 1.03 Holiday -3 0 0 0.94 0 0 0 0.79 Holiday -2 0 0 0.97 0 0 0 0 Holiday -1 0 0 0 0 0 0.81 0.47 Holiday 1.09 1.00 0 1.04 1.00 0.90 0 Holiday +1 1.05 1.00 0 0.96 0.95 0.99 0 Holiday +2 1.07 1.00 0.89 0.96 1.00 1.00 1.11 Holiday +3 Sum 4.40 3.95 3.77 3.71 3.85 4.57 3.39 Data Years 2008-16 2008-16 2008-16 2008-16 2008-16 2007-15 2007-15 Holidays Fixed Day: Sum 2 - 44

  45. 1. 2. Fixed Day 3. Fixed Date 4. Final Thoughts Introduction Holiday Factors The holidays are identified and the dates presented as the number of days before & after the holiday itself. A Fixed Day Holiday Factors: Summary Table B C D E F G H I 12 Initial Results 9 M L King Day Presidents' Day Good Friday Memorial Day Labor Day Columbus Day Thanksgiving 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 "Date" 1.18 0.95 0.96 0.74 0.90 0.87 1.03 Holiday -3 0 0 0.94 0 0 0 0.79 Holiday -2 0 0 0.97 0 0 0 0 Holiday -1 0 0 0 0 0 0.81 0.47 Holiday 1.09 1.00 0 1.04 1.00 0.90 0 Holiday +1 1.05 1.01 0 0.96 0.95 0.99 0 Holiday +2 1.07 0.97 0.89 0.96 1.03 1.02 1.11 Holiday +3 Sum 4.40 3.93 3.77 3.71 3.88 4.59 3.39 Final Results 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 "Date" 1.18 0.95 0.96 0.74 0.90 0.87 1.03 Holiday -3 0 0 0.94 0 0 0 0.79 Holiday -2 0 0 0.97 0 0 0 0 Holiday -1 0 0 0 0 0 0.81 0.47 Holiday 1.09 1.00 0 1.04 1.00 0.90 0 Holiday +1 1.05 1.00 0 0.96 0.95 0.99 0 Holiday +2 1.07 1.00 0.89 0.96 1.00 1.00 1.11 Holiday +3 Sum 4.40 3.95 3.77 3.71 3.85 4.57 3.39 Data Years 2008-16 2008-16 2008-16 2008-16 2008-16 2007-15 2007-15 Holidays Fixed Day: Sum 2 - 45

  46. 1. 2. Fixed Day 3. Fixed Date 4. Final Thoughts Introduction Holiday Factors Final Results modify those days where it doesn t seem to make sense that there is any change due to the influence of the holiday. A Fixed Day Holiday Factors: Summary Table B C D E F G H I 12 Initial Results 9 M L King Day Presidents' Day Good Friday Memorial Day Labor Day Columbus Day Thanksgiving 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 "Date" 1.18 0.95 0.96 0.74 0.90 0.87 1.03 Holiday -3 0 0 0.94 0 0 0 0.79 Holiday -2 0 0 0.97 0 0 0 0 Holiday -1 0 0 0 0 0 0.81 0.47 Holiday 1.09 1.00 0 1.04 1.00 0.90 0 Holiday +1 1.05 1.01 0 0.96 0.95 0.99 0 Holiday +2 1.07 0.97 0.89 0.96 1.03 1.02 1.11 Holiday +3 Sum 4.40 3.93 3.77 3.71 3.88 4.59 3.39 Final Results 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 "Date" 1.18 0.95 0.96 0.74 0.90 0.87 1.03 Holiday -3 0 0 0.94 0 0 0 0.79 Holiday -2 0 0 0.97 0 0 0 0 Holiday -1 0 0 0 0 0 0.81 0.47 Holiday 1.09 1.00 0 1.04 1.00 0.90 0 Holiday +1 1.05 1.00 0 0.96 0.95 0.99 0 Holiday +2 1.07 1.00 0.89 0.96 1.00 1.00 1.11 Holiday +3 Sum 4.40 3.95 3.77 3.71 3.85 4.57 3.39 Data Years 2008-16 2008-16 2008-16 2008-16 2008-16 2007-15 2007-15 Holidays Fixed Day: Sum 2 - 46

  47. 1. 2. Fixed Day 3. Fixed Date 4. Final Thoughts Introduction Holiday Factors Generally the results make sense. ML King values are notably higher but may be due to start of year. A Fixed Day Holiday Factors: Summary Table B C D E F G H I 12 Initial Results 9 M L King Day Presidents' Day Good Friday Memorial Day Labor Day Columbus Day Thanksgiving 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 "Date" 1.18 0.95 0.96 0.74 0.90 0.87 1.03 Holiday -3 0 0 0.94 0 0 0 0.79 Holiday -2 0 0 0.97 0 0 0 0 Holiday -1 0 0 0 0 0 0.81 0.47 Holiday 1.09 1.00 0 1.04 1.00 0.90 0 Holiday +1 1.05 1.01 0 0.96 0.95 0.99 0 Holiday +2 1.07 0.97 0.89 0.96 1.03 1.02 1.11 Holiday +3 Sum 4.40 3.93 3.77 3.71 3.88 4.59 3.39 Final Results 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 "Date" 1.18 0.95 0.96 0.74 0.90 0.87 1.03 Holiday -3 0 0 0.94 0 0 0 0.79 Holiday -2 0 0 0.97 0 0 0 0 Holiday -1 0 0 0 0 0 0.81 0.47 Holiday 1.09 1.00 0 1.04 1.00 0.90 0 Holiday +1 1.05 1.00 0 0.96 0.95 0.99 0 Holiday +2 1.07 1.00 0.89 0.96 1.00 1.00 1.11 Holiday +3 Sum 4.40 3.95 3.77 3.71 3.85 4.57 3.39 Data Years 2008-16 2008-16 2008-16 2008-16 2008-16 2007-15 2007-15 Holidays Fixed Day: Sum 2 - 47

  48. 1. 2. Fixed Day 3. Fixed Date 4. Final Thoughts Introduction Holiday Factors Before leaving Fixed Day holidays, I want to call out a special exception unique to the NYSE: the 3rd Friday of the last month of each quarter. Actuals December only Holidays 3rd Friday: Sum3rdFri 2 - 48

  49. 1. 2. Fixed Day 3. Fixed Date 4. Final Thoughts Introduction Holiday Factors Holiday Factors were assigned the 3rd Friday, with values increasing over time. Factors to Use Actuals 1-Yr Moving Avg December only Holidays 3rd Friday: Sum3rdFri 2 - 49

  50. 1. 2. Fixed Day 3. Fixed Date 4. Final Thoughts Introduction Holiday Factors An additional set of Holiday Factors were assigned the 4th Friday in June, with values increasing over time. Actuals Factors to Use 1-Yr Moving Avg Holidays 3rd Friday: Sum4thJuneFri 2 - 50

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