Off-Peak Sensitivity Analysis for 2021 RTP
Explore the details of the 2021 RTP off-peak sensitivity analysis, focusing on stressed resource availability scenarios while respecting stability limits. Assumptions and generation factors are outlined for a comprehensive understanding.
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Presentation Transcript
2021 RTP Off-Peak Sensitivity Analysis Craig Wolf September 2021 RPG Meeting
Introduction NERC Reliability Standard TPL-001-4 requires sensitivity analysis to be performed The focus of the 2021 RTP off-peak sensitivity analysis will be a stressed resource availability scenario All 2021 RTP stability limits will be respected in this sensitivity analysis This case will be built from the 2024MIN RTP case 2 PUBLIC
Assumptions The base case will include a significant amount of planned unit outages Historical and future outage scheduler data will be utilized to determine outage levels for conventional resources A base case operating reserve of 3,000 MW will be established PUN units that don t participate in the energy market will be left as modeled in the 2024MIN RTP case 3 PUBLIC
Assumptions Contd Nuclear: 2,565 MW online This represents the outage of one unit at each site Renewables: Wind: 0 MW online Solar: 0 MW online Hydro: 0 MW online Batteries: 0 MW online DC Ties: 0 MW import/export 4 PUBLIC
Assumptions Contd Gas: ~12,700 MW offline ~40,500 MW online Coal: ~ 4,000 MW offline ~ 9,800 MW online These outage levels are determined from historical and future outage scheduler data The individual units turned offline in the base case will be determined through a G-1 screening This will identify the most severe outages to incorporate 5 PUBLIC
Assumptions Contd Total Generation: ~61,265 MW online Other load determination factors: ~ 4,516 MW of self serve load ~ 1,200 MW of estimated losses ~ 3,000 MW of operational reserves Total Load: ~ 57,065 MW of load excluding estimated losses ~ 52,550 MW of load excluding estimated losses and self-serve load Existing load will be scaled to reach the desired load level 6 PUBLIC
Questions? Craig.Wolf@ercot.com 7 PUBLIC
