Optimal Preschool Policies for Low-Income Children: Skills, Behaviors, and Success Factors

Optimal Preschool Policies for Low- Income Children Greg J. Duncan School of Education University of California, Irvine

Outline What skills and behaviors should preschools be promoting? Concrete achievement skills, mostly How good are we at doing that? So-so, and impacts are smaller now than 40 years ago

Outline (cont) What policy levers are available? Funding + regulating quality and curriculum What s the bottom line on them? Center-based care helps; quality regulation doesn t seem to work; and we re promoting the wrong curricula in Head Start Are there successful models out there? Yes, but only scaled up in one city

What skills and behaviors matter most for success in school?

Skills and Behaviors Problem Behaviors Achievement Engagement Concrete math and reading skills Ability to control impulses and focus on tasks i) Ability to get along with others ii) Sound mental health Description: Knowing letters and numbers; beginning word sounds, word problems i) Cheats or tells lies, bullies, is disobedient at school ii) Is sad, moody Example test areas or question wording: Can t sit still; can t concentrate; score from a computer test of impulse control Duncan and Magnuson, 2011

Skill and behavior gaps between high- and low-income kindergarteners and fifth graders (SAT scale) +106 Mental health problems Anti-social behavior +53 -27 -30 Math (or ~reading) achievement School engagement -100 Kindergarten gap 5th grade gap Source: Early Childhood Longitudinal Study Kindergarten cohort.

Skill and behavior gaps between high- and low-income kindergarteners and fifth graders (SAT scale) +121 +106 Mental health problems Anti-social behavior +59 +53 -27 -42 -30 -31 Math or reading achievement School engagement -100 Kindergarten gap 5th grade gap Source: Early Childhood Longitudinal Study Kindergarten cohort.

Which school-entry academic skills and behaviors best predict later school achievement? Regress later achievement on: School-entry math and reading School-entry engagement, etc. Controls for: Child IQ, temperament Maternal and family measures Duncan et al. (2007)

Predictive importance for later school achievement (standardized coefficients) Grades 1 to 8 achievement: School-entry: Reading .17* Math .34* Engagement/attention .10* Anti-social (- expected) .01 ns Mental health (- expected) .01 ns Duncan et al (2007) s meta-analysis of six longitudinal data sets, five of which control for prior IQ

Bottom line for ECE and school readiness: Marshmallows be damned! Concentrate first and foremost on early math and literacy skills

How well do ECE programs promote cognitive skills? Evidence from strong evaluation studies published between 1960-2007 End of treatment effect sizes (vs. longer-run studies)

Average cognitive impact at end of treatment 2.00 Perry 1.50 Average effect size in sd units Abecedarian 1.00 0.50 0.00 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 -0.50

Average cognitive impact at end of treatment 2.00 Head Start Non Head Start Perry 1.50 Average effect size in sd units Y Abecedarian 1.00 National Head Start 0.50 0.00 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 -0.50

Average cognitive impact at end of treatment 2.00 Head Start Non Head Start Perry 1.50 Average effect size in sd units Y Abecedarian Boston pre-K 1.00 National Head Start 0.50 0.00 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 -0.50

Why are impacts of programs from the 60s, 70s and 80s larger than now? Counterfactual conditions now are much more enriching: Maternal schooling much higher Fewer siblings More center-based care

What About Long-Run ECE Effects? Short-term impacts on test scores fade over time Meta-analysis: Decline by .025 standard deviations each year, or entirely after 8-9 years Yet, consistent impacts on adult educational attainment, earnings and crime across diverse ECE programs Example: Deming (2009) fixed-effect Head Start study using an index of adult outcomes shows effect size .23 sd

The Mechanism Puzzle We don t know why there are long-run effects on human capital when short-run achievement impacts fade BUT evidence suggests that there is not one explanation for all evaluation study findings It s not only because of character or behavior Good News, though: Equifinality--a variety of ECE programs with differing approaches have positive impacts on adult human capital through differing pathways

Policy levers Funding streams for programs Curriculum requirements Process quality regulation (QRIS)

ECE Funding & Enrollment Two largest funding streams for ECE: Head Start ($8.5 billion) and State Prekindergarten ($5.1 billion) In year before Kindergarten about 75% of children experience ECE in a mix of full- and part- day programs 90% of top income quintile 65-69% of bottom three income quintiles Lower enrollment among Hispanics, Immigrants, and rural populations

Cost of Expanding ECE Access Focus on funding bottom three income quintiles ~ 1.2 million of these children are not in ECE (or private ECE) Per child cost of program (mix of part and full day programs): ~$7,500 New Cost: $9.36 billion (a little more than the current cost of Head Start)

What is minimal ECE short-run effect size needed to recoup $7,500? Increase of 1% percentile rank in Kindergarten achievement predicts .5% increase in adult earnings (Chetty et al., 2011) Our estimate of present value of lifetime earnings (PVLE) at age 5: Lower estimate ~$382,392 Higher estimate ~$681,544 Break Even if ECE program impacts are : Lower PVLE estimate: 4 percentile points (.10-.15 ES) Higher PVLE estimate: 2 percentile points (.03-.08 ES)

How to generate large cognitive impacts? Curriculum requirements? Process quality regulation (QRIS)?

Types of Curricula Whole-child Content-specific (e.g., math or literacy) Locally-developed

Whole-child curricula Head Start mandates whole child curricula Creative Curriculum is most popular HighScope (Perry Preschool) is 2nd most popular No strong evidence on effectiveness

Process Regulation Policy Lever All but one state have Quality Rating and Improvement Systems (QRIS) Star-type ratings for quality based on structural characteristics and classoom observations (ECERS, CLASS) Most run by state family services and not education departments No RCT evidence; value-added evidence suggests no substantial impacts for stars, ECRS or CLASS

New RCT Evidence on: Which curricula best promote school readiness? Do gains in QRIS-type process quality match gains in child outcomes?

The Preschool Curriculum Evaluation Research (PCER) Initiative Study provided random-assignment evaluations of 14 early childhood education curricula 12 grantees; all used common measures of child outcomes, classroom processes, and implementation quality 2,911 children

Curricula comparisons in PCER Literacy Math I III II Whole-child (Creative Curriculum and HighScope) IV Locally- developed Note: Comparison IV only involves the Creative Curriculum

I. Literacy vs. HighScope and Creative Curriculum U North Florida n=250 FL Early Literacy and Learning Model Creative Florida State n=200 Florida State n=200 Berkeley n=290 FL FL NJ Literacy Express DLM Early Childhood Express Ready Set Leap HighScope HighScope HighScope University of Virginia n=200 II. Literacy vs. Locally Developed VA Language Focused HighScope Locally Developed Locally Developed Locally Developed UT Houston n=200 TX Doors to Discovery UT Houston n=200 TX Let s Begin with the Letter People Vanderbilt n=210 TN Bright Beginnings III. Math vs. HighScope and Creative Curriculum Berkeley and SUNY Buffalo n=320 IV. Creative Curriculum vs. Locally Developed CA, NY Creative or HighScope Pre-K Math NC, GA TN Locally Developed Locally Developed UNC Charlotte n=310 Creative Curriculum Vanderbilt n=210 Creative Curriculum

Do preschool curricula affect: Classroom quality? Child school readiness?

Do preschool curricula affect: Classroom quality? Child school readiness?

Experimental curricula comparisons predicting classroom observational measures at the end of preschool ECERS total score Arnett total score TBRS Math TBRS Literacy I. Literacy v. HighScope and Creative Curriculum II. Literacy v. Locally developed Each cell estimate is from a separate regression III. Math v. HighScope and Creative Curriculum IV. Creative Curriculum v. Locally developed

Experimental curricula comparisons predicting classroom observational measures at the end of preschool ECERS total score Arnett total score TBRS Math TBRS Literacy .25+ (.15) -.14 (.16) .07 (.16) .18 (.16) I. Literacy v. HighScope and Creative Curriculum .51* (.23) .46 (.32) .83* (.37) .38 (.25) II. Literacy v. Locally developed .15 (.32) 1.16* (.52) .34 (.31) .63 (.52) III. Math v. HighScope and Creative Curriculum .61* (.23) .51* (.23) .71** (.17) .99* (.36) IV. Creative Curriculum v. Locally developed

Do preschool curricula affect: Classroom quality? Child school readiness?

Experimental curricula comparisons predicting school readiness skills at the end of preschool Social skills composite Literacy composite Math Academic composite composite I. Literacy v. HighScope and Creative Curriculum II. Literacy v. Locally developed III. Math v. HighScope and Creative Curriculum IV. Creative Curriculum v. Locally developed

Experimental curricula comparisons predicting school readiness skills at the end of preschool Social skills composite Literacy composite Math Academic composite composite I. Literacy v. HighScope and Creative Curriculum .15** (.05) -.01 (.05) .06 (.05) -.13 (.10) II. Literacy v. Locally developed .15 (.09) .14+ (.07) .15+ (.08) -.18 (.19) III. Math v. HighScope and Creative Curriculum .05 (.10) .35** (.11) .25* (.11) .14 (.17) IV. Creative Curriculum v. Locally developed .02 (.08) .02 (.08) .02 (.08) -.03 (.23)

Cant we do even better than this? What if you built the curriculum around proven approaches?

Boston pre-K as a model? Curriculum combined proven math & literacy and behavioral curricula Develop non-cognitive skills as a by-product of boosting academic skills Strong professional development, including coaching Big impacts, but $12K per child

Boston pre-K Weiland & Yoshikawa, 2013 Child Development 0.7 .62*** .59*** 0.6 .50*** .44*** 0.5 0.4 Effect size 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 PPVT-III (vocabulary) W-J LW (early reading) W-J AP (numeracy) REMA Short (numeracy, geometry) 39

Positive Spillover Effects on All Three Dimensions of Executive Function Skills 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 .28*** .24*** .24*** 0.3 .21*** 0.2 .11 0.1 0 Backward DS (working memory) Forward Digit Span (working memory) Pencil Tap (inhibitory control) DCCS (inhibitory control) TOQ Attention (att. shifting) 40

What does Boston pre-K look like? 6-minute video from restoringopportunity.com https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=URZkGPwcsn0

Summary Focus most on building achievement skills Typical ECE programs generate fairly small impacts, although still may have Benefits > Costs QRIS quality systems aren t promising Mandated whole-child curricula aren t either Experiment with full-monty curricular approaches

Greg J. Duncan gduncan@uci.edu School of Education University of California, Irvine