Planning Area Sales Summary 2020: Insights and Projections
Dive into the comprehensive analysis of planning area sales summary for 2020, covering major economic drivers, COVID-19 impacts, and future projections. Explore the shifts in population trends, household forecasts, and electricity rate growth, along with key differences in outlooks. Gain valuable insights into sales growth expectations for PG&E, SCE, and SDG&E, including contributions from electric vehicles and self-generation. Stay informed about market trends and forecasts in this detailed report.
Download Presentation
Please find below an Image/Link to download the presentation.
The content on the website is provided AS IS for your information and personal use only. It may not be sold, licensed, or shared on other websites without obtaining consent from the author. If you encounter any issues during the download, it is possible that the publisher has removed the file from their server.
You are allowed to download the files provided on this website for personal or commercial use, subject to the condition that they are used lawfully. All files are the property of their respective owners.
The content on the website is provided AS IS for your information and personal use only. It may not be sold, licensed, or shared on other websites without obtaining consent from the author.
E N D
Presentation Transcript
CEDU 2020: Planning Area Sales Summary Prepared for Demand Analysis Working Group November 19, 2020 Cary.Garcia@energy.ca.gov Demand Analysis Office
Review of input changes Major economic drivers see a decline in 2020 due to COVID-19 with a recovery beginning partway through 2021 and continuing through 2023 Population and household forecasts from DOF have been lowered Lower birth rate, increase deaths, and lower net migration Household formation is delayed for millennials due to affordability in the near-term On average electricity rate growth is similar to CED 2019 PG&E residential and commercial is somewhat higher, while SDG&E and SCE have lower expectations 2
Moodys Outlook - June vs. Oct. 2020 Key differences: Commercial and Manufacturing employment are now expected to be lower for 2020 Personal income and GSP outlook is somewhat more optimistic Extraordinary uncertainty in recovery outcome dependent on federal stimulus and vaccine availability Moody s October baseline forecast assumes additional federal stimulus in Q1 2021 Outlook does not expect a significant second wave of the virus and anticipates a vaccine by Spring 2021 3
Major Planning Area Sales Summary CEDU 2020 Baseline Mid Case Sales Growth Years PG&E SCE SDG&E LADWP SMUD 2019-2020 -3.5% -2.0% -3.6% -4.3% -1.4% 2020-2024 1.3% 1.2% 1.2% 0.3% 0.7% 2025-2030 0.4% 0.4% 0.6% 0.3% 0.6% 4
PG&E Planning Area Sales EVs contribute 5,850 GWh by 2030 25,800 GWh of self generation by 2030 (18,900 GWh as PV) 0.7% average annual growth, 2020-2030 5
SCE Planning Area Sales EVs contribute 4,647 GWh by 2030 ~18,600 GWh of self generation by 2030 (14,100 GWh as PV) Sales growth at 0.7% annually, 2020-2030 6
SDG&E Planning Area Sales 1,344 GWh contributed EVs by 2030 5,200 GWh of self generation by 2030 (4,570 GWh as PV) Average annual growth of 0.5% for sales 7
LADWP Territory Sales 1,408 GWh contributed by EVs by 2030 2,350 GWh of self generation by 2030 (50% from PV) Sales growth at 0.7% annually, 2020-2030 8
SMUD Territory Sales 371 GWh from EVs by 2030 1,244 GWh of self generation by 2030 (96% as PV) 0.6% growth annually, 2020-2030 9
