Policy Horizons and Foresight in Future of Work Strategies

Role of Policy Horizons and Foresight in Looking at the Future of Work CIO Strategy Council Meeting February 2018

WHO WE ARE MANDATE: Help Government of Canada s be more future-oriented so that policy and programs are more robust in the face of the big changes we are seeing in major systems and across sectors. Focuses on the medium- to long-term policy horizon (10-15 years): Preparing scans and foresight studies to help public servants and citizens to understand the evolving policy landscape and the challenges that lie ahead. Building foresight literacy and capacity in the Public Service. Curating the ongoing foresight conversation. Policy Horizons is governed by a steering committee of deputy ministers. 30+ staff with foresight, policy and communications expertise. 2

WHAT IS FORESIGHT? The objective of foresight is to understand the system being studied, the forces shaping it, the ways it could evolve, and the plausible futures that could emerge. This helps us develop policies and strategies that are robust -- that is, deliver the desired outcomes across that range of futures Foresight does not predict the future but it explores the range of plausible futures that may emerge. 3

FORECASTING vs FORESIGHT APPROACH TOOLS IMPLICIT ASSUMPTIONS PRODUCT Expert judgement Scanning for trends Data analysis Trend extrapolation Trend impact assessment Simulations The future is an extension of the present. Surprises come from changes in the value of the known variables Forecasting An understanding of the expected future Scanning for weak signals of change Driver analysis Influence maps Cross impact analysis System analysis Scenarios Assumption testing Strategic Foresight The underlying system is evolving. Surprises come from changes that disrupt the system An understanding of the range of plausible futures and the potential surprises that current policies and institutions are not ready to address 4

SCANNING FOR WEAK SIGNALS: THE FOUNDATION FOR STRATEGIC FORESIGHT Trends describe the expected future, the high probability, high impact developments we need to address. Focusing exclusively on the trends risks being blindsided by surprises. Trends are based on data. All data is in the past. It may be unreliable if the underlying system is changing in fundamental ways. Surprises come from the places people are not looking. Scanning identifies weak signals with unknown probability but potentially significant impact that are often ignored. Foresight explores how they may interact with the system to create surprises. 5

TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE DRIVERS Advanced digital networks & mobile 10 Mbps upload Fast, powerful data analytics, sensors & the Internet of Things Artificial intelligence automates tasks uniquely done by people AI-enabled platforms coordinate human interaction with value chain Global Digital Infrastructure Enables digital global value chains Robots in society automate and support physical services (e.g. cars, trucks, farms) Blockchain enables frictionless commerce that cuts out middlemen New production technologies decentralize manufacturing (e.g. 3-D printing, robots, synbio) Virtual telepresence allows physical presence around the world 6 6 6

AREAS OF UNCERTAINTY Speed and scope of change: Faster or slower Cost and prices: Inflation or deflation Jobs: More or less, Better quality or lower quality 7

CHALLENGE QUESTION Governments How do governments, the private sector and other players work together to address the challenges and take advantage of the opportunities that the next 10-15 years will bring? International organizations Start-ups and SMEs Academia Large corporations Community organizations and non-for-profits Unions 8

Thank you! Policy Horizons Canada www.horizons.gc.ca 9