Political Settlement Across Value Divides Post-Brexit

Across the Great Divide Seeking a political settlement across the value divides after Brexit

2016 End of 30 Year Liberal Wave Cold war over. 1990s New Democrats/New Labour conversion to markets. Hyper-globalisation. Gatt to WTO, China joins 2001. EU Maastricht, Euro, new waves of immigration, weaker national social contracts, technocratic depoliticisation. Financial crisis Populism/Trump response to new openness: from socio- economic to socio-cultural politics

Meta-tribes: Anywheres v Somewheres Value group v social class, some overlap Anywheres (25 per cent) educated, mobile, secular value autonomy/openness/fluidity Somewheres (50 per cent) less educated, more rooted, value security/tradition Key differences: social change/group attachment, achieved v ascribed identities Too Binary? In-Betweeners variety of As & Ss Not invented (fuzzy edges) BOTH LEGITIMATE

Smart people too powerful Cognitive class shaping society in their interests, cognitive ability gold standard of esteem. Decline of other aptitudes/institutions (family, church, nation). Brexit collateral damage Knowledge econ, lower status non-grad jobs Higher education, neglect of technical/apprenticeships Econ openness, mass immigration, double whammy Meritocracy, social/geographical mobility/Greening. Save the bright ones! Less room at top, need basic jobs Family policy bias against private realm/domesticity Technocratic state: empowering /disempowering. National sov matters more if you have little in your life

Decent populists Left v right/open v closed. Self-serving. Populist/Brexit voters mainly accept great liberalization. Not liberals. Hidden majority. Hard centre. Owen/Bell. Want? Stable communities, secure borders, integrated minorities, citizen rights before universal, contribution and reciprocity in welfare, evolution but not abolition of gender division of labour, decent options for non- university, recognition and narrative for those of middling ability. Want to be valued/useful. Value sov, Brit identity tied up in political institutions, uneasy about EU post-1992, would have accepted UK leadership of a second tier (Owen).

Keep calm Brexit This is not May 1940. Nor winter of discontent, nor 2008. Half in/half out. Meaning not money. A mess but a democratic one. Voters bowled a googly, election made it worse. Brexit a Somewhere choice implemented by reluctant Anywheres. Mistakes: Article 50, managing public opinion, EU sets agenda, failure to sell deal. Deal probable, DUP looking for way out, multi-dimensional face saving. English question. O Toole, not empire but voice. Post-Brexit boost for Tories?

Political interregnum Politics/parties out of sync with new divide, runs through main parties. Labour/Tory. Will Leave/Remain become lasting political identities? Curtice 30% identify strongly with 2017 election choice, 80% with leave/remain. New parties easier in Europe 2017 election Anywhere/youth backlash. Tuition fees/housing etc. Power of higher education No lurch left but austerity fatigue? Socio-economic convergence, cultural divergence. Right won economic argument, left cultural. Liberal blob v decent populism Who speaks for hidden majority? Somewheres shrinking not dying

New Settlement? Harari: modernity, meaning for power. Or neither? Post-industrial societies less good at distributing status? Freedom, justice and meaning Anywheres, more emotional intelligence please The 3 Hs. Craft, technical, caring skill undervalued. Burst the university bubble Will AI plus ageing society shift balance? Female equality and the caring economy Finding common enemies/interests: environment, reform of social state, socio-economic convergence Liberals and small-c conservatives, Bavaria