Predicting Spread of Non-Native Species: Northern Pike in Adirondack Park

Predicting the spread of a Non-Native Species Using a Habitat Suitability Index NORTHERN PIKE (ESOX LUSCIOUS ) IN THE ADIRONDACK PARK 596A Project Proposal Kim Vanderklein Advisor: Dr. Mike Nassry

Overview Background Objective Why Do We Care Habitat Suitability Index Northern Pike Indicators Adirondack Park Methodology Challenges Questions

Objectives: Source: Iowa DNR How Do We Predict Future Spread in a specific location (in this case the Adirondack Park)? Can this method be generalized to apply to anywhere? Mapthe habitat requirements of northern pike and the factors that allow for their potential spread. Question: Which waterways in that region are potentially at risk from the spread of northern pike in the Adirondacks.

Life History 4 Life Stages: EGGS about 2 weeks before hatching Fry Sac Fry - about 10 days Swim-up Fry about 3 weeks Fingerlings (Juveniles) 1-2 years for males, 2-4 years for females Adult

Introduction Spread of Northern Pike -Rapid expansion of range at the end of the 1800 s due to popularity as a game fish -Now found in 41 different states Source: USGS-Nonindigenous Aquatic Species

Historical Spread and role of illegal introduction Hudson River Basin 1840 s Earliest deliberate introduction of species Northwest 1950 s Illegal introduction in Coeur d Alene Lake spread to introduction throughout Northern Idaho Source: USGS-NATIONAL WATER QUALITY ASSESSMENT PROGRAM Illegal Stocking in Flathead, Bitterroot, and Clark Fork River to Lake Pend Orielle to Lake Pend River and then into Washington Source: USGS National Water Quality Assessment Program Source: Google Maps

Why Do We Care? Ecological Impact vs Economic Impact Ecological Impacts Predation leading to a reduction in native fish populations Able to adapt to easily a broad range of environmental conditions Able to survive at low oxygen levels Able to survive at low water temperatures Water clarity Number of eggs that can be produced Upwards of 100,000 eggs for large females (10 + lbs)

Why Do We Care Example: Pactola Reservoir, South Dakota: Stocked Rainbow Trout are preyed upon by Northern Pike Predation rate estimate = 1 out of every 4 stocked rainbow trout - 2016 paper by Scheibel et al.

Why Do We Care? Economic Impacts State tourism due to popularity as Sport Fish Examples where Management efforts have been largely dictated by sport fishing industry: Michigan Maine

Habitat Suitability Index: Origins History: Created by US Fish and Wildlife Service First detailed in the paper: Standards for the Development of Habitat Suitability Index Models , also referred to as 103 ESM Developed as part of a new methodology for evaluating species habitat Purpose: Each HSI measures a relationship between the variable and its habitat suitability

HSI Model HSI metric types: -Simple descriptive relationship Ex: A drop in water levels will negatively impact Northern Pike eggs and fry -Quantitative Metric -With threshold value Ex: It is common for Northern Pike to spawn in shallow water (< meter), therefore a drop in water levels will negatively impact Northern Pike eggs and fry -Categorical Variables -turning descriptor such as: Abundant, moderate, or scarce into a histogram or line chart Source: USFW ESM 103

Components of an HSI Models -Seasonal Habitat Components -Cover Types Related to Each Season -Cover Types Related to Life Stage -Habitat Variables Related to Each Life Requisite -Spatial Variables HSI Models can also consist of a combination of variables where appropriate Source: USFW ESM 103

HSI Indicators For Pike Water Characteristics Vegetation Characteristics Weather Conditions Water Body Characteristics

Water Quality Factors Water Level during spawning habitat pH of water in spawning habitat: Total Dissolved Solids: Water Temperature: Area of Standing Waters:

Vegetation Factors Vegetation Types Source: USFW ESM 103 Vegetation Density Source: USFW ESM 103

Waterbody Physical Characteristics Access to Connecting Waterways Stream Gradient

Adirondack Park -Established in 1892 -Covers 2 million acres of land ~10,000 lakes ~30,000 miles of rivers Source: Adirondack Park Agency Source: Wikipedia

Site Selection 5 major water sheds in Adirondack Park Saint Lawrence River (Blue) Lake Champlain (Red) Upper Hudson River (Yellow) Black River (Green) Mohawk River Basin (purple) Choice will be made off of data availability and current location of pike in Adirondack park Source: Adirondack Park Agency

Data Sources Water Characteristics National Water Information System (NWIS) Created by USGS Has nearly 2 million monitoring sites nation wide Vegetation Type and Density Data from the Adirondack Park Agency Images from NOAA data viewer, Earth Explorer, and the National Viewer

Methodology Map each indicator within area of interest Quantify Results Categorical Descriptors & Specific HSI value Overlay Results Create a comprehensive single HSI metric

Methodology Flow Chart Assemble Initial Variables Convert Categorical Descriptors into Numerical Descriptors Provide Categorical Descriptors for each waterbody Variable 1 Map variables within subject area Variable 2 Variable 3 Overlay Results to Create a Single Metric Scaling the Project Up If time permits

Timeline and Presentation Research During Spring 2021 GEOG 596B in Spring 2 semester

Challenges Finding Data Sources for location or proxy Data Sources where needed Getting the model to work for other locations Locations of Northern Pike

Questions?

Citations: Adirondack Park https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adirondack_Park Adirondack Park Agency Maps and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) https://apa.ny.gov/gis/index.html Inskip, P. (1982). Habitat Suitability Index Models: Northern Pike. US Fish and Wildlife Service Department of the Interior - Division of Ecological Services. NAS Nonindigenous Aquatic Species https://nas.er.usgs.gov/queries/factsheet.aspx?SpeciesID=676 NATIONAL WATER QUALITY ASSESSMENT PROGRAM - The Hudson River Basin https://ny.water.usgs.gov/projects/hdsn/fctsht/su.html Northern Pike https://www.iowadnr.gov/Fishing/Iowa-Fish-Species/Fish-Details/speciescode/nop Northern Pike Life Cycle https://www.sciencesource.com/archive/Northern-Pike-Life-Cycle-SS2289724.html#/SearchResult&ITEMID=SS2289724 NYS Adirondack Park Agency https://gis.ny.gov/gisdata/inventories/member.cfm?organizationID=508 Scheibel et al. (2016). Impacts of Northern Pike on Stocked Rainbow Trout in Pactola Reservoir, South Dakota. North American Journal of Fisheries Management, 36(2), 230- 240. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/297675725_Impacts_of_Northern_Pike_on_Stocked_Rainbow_Trout_in_Pactola_Reservoir_South_Dakota US Fish and Wildlife Service Department of the Interior - Division of Ecological Services. (1981). Standards for the Development of Habitat Suitability Index Models USGS Water Data for the Nation https://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis