Preparing a Tender from a Supplier's Perspective: Insights and Challenges
In the realm of procurement, understanding the dynamics of tendering from a supplier's viewpoint is crucial. Explore valuable insights on the current landscape, market trends, and inherent challenges faced by suppliers in this comprehensive analysis. From procurement reforms to key metrics and prevalent issues, this content sheds light on the essential aspects that shape the tendering process for suppliers.
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Photochemical Modeling of Louisiana for the 2008 Ozone Standard Chris Emery ENVIRON International Corporation, Novato CA November 14, 2012 Template Template
Modeling System Follows from previous SIP modeling effort Consistency, familiarity with past LDEQ datasets Utilize some new state-of-the-science models Adhere to latest EPA requirements and guidance Photochemical Model: CAMx Meteorological Model: WRF (new) Louisiana Emissions Processing Stationary: EPS3 On-road mobile: CONCEPT/MOVES (new) Non-road mobile: NONROAD Biogenic: MEGAN (new) Attainment Demonstration: MATS 2
Modeling Period Model one season (September-October 2010) EPA guidance is moving away from episodic modeling Local ozone frequency/magnitude peaks in Spring and Fall Evaluated statewide 2008-2011 monitoring data Tally days exceeding thresholds: 60, 65, 70, 75 ppb Look for periods with statewide exceedances Identify appropriate representative ozone season No extremes: 2008 very low, 2011 very high Economic/natural deviations: 2009 hit hardest by recession Availability of national/regional/local datasets 3
Site-Days Exceeding 75 ppb Statewide and By Region Region 2008 2009 2010 2010 (Aug-Oct) 57 22 12 11 6 Louisiana Baton Rouge New Orleans Shreveport Lake Charles 43 26 1 3 2 68 35 10 6 11 88 39 15 14 9 4
Modeling Domain Move to align with national CONUS domain Established by Regional Planning Organizations Used by EPA for many national modeling analyses TCEQ and other CENSARA states are moving to this domain Improves data sharing and consistency Three-grid system 36 km CONUS 12 km south-central US 4 km Louisiana 6
2160 1800 1440 1080 720 LCP Northing (km) 360 0 -360 WRF 4km -720 CAMx 4km -1080 -1440 CAMx 12km WRF 12 km -1800 CAMx 36 km -2160 WRF 36km -2880-2520-2160-1800-1440-1080 -720 -360 0 360 720 1080 1440 1800 2160 2520 2880 LCP Easting (km) Louisiana WRF/CAMx Modeling Domains CAMx 36 km: 148 x 112 (-2736, -2088) to (2592, 1944) 12 km: 159 x 141 ( -288, -1584) to (1620, 108) 4 km: 216 x 126 ( 72, -1224) to ( 936, -720) WRF: 36 km: 165 x 129 dot points (-2952, -2304) to (2952, 2304) 12 km: 172 x 154 dot points ( -360, -1656) to (1692, 180) 04 km: 229 x 139 dot points ( 48, -1248) to ( 960, -696) 7
Meteorological Modeling Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) Developed/maintained by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Used by EPA and many states to support AQ modeling Run with configuration/options that work best from our recent experience Modeling performed by Alpine Geophysics Model evaluation against observational data Statistics for winds, temperature, humidity Quantitatively/graphically evaluate precipitation Interface with CAMx (WRFCAMx) 8
Anthropogenic Emissions Processing LA stationary (EPS3) 2010 Point sources from LDEQ EIS and hourly ARP/CAMD (ERG) Parish-level area sources from 2008 NEI no change to 2010 (ERG) LA on-road mobile (CONCEPT) Parish-level activity data (HPMS), fuels, fleet mix Vehicle emission factors (MOVES) LA non-road mobile (NMIM/NONROAD) Parish-level EPA default equipment/activity LA Other (EPS3) Gulf-wide shipping and O&G (ERG/BOEM) Haynesville Shale development (past ENVIRON work for Texas) Port Fourchon activity (LSU/Starcrest) LA deep-draft shipping ports/lanes (past ENVIRON work, BOEM) US-wide (SMOKE) Processed by Alpine Geophysics Biogenic (MEGAN) Daily fires (NCAR FINN) 9
Model Performance Evaluation Evaluate model fidelity for ozone and precursors Rely on routine AQS and PAMS monitoring Screening model performance Basic graphics/statistics evaluating ozone Refined model performance Expand to precursors Conduct diagnostic & sensitivity tests (Probing Tools?) Identify best model configuration suitable for ozone attainment demonstration Avoid tuning or curve-fitting Any changes must be justifiable, reviewed, documented 10
Future Year Modeling 2017 attainment year (Moderate Area) Substitute 2010 emissions with 2017 projections Reflects controls and forecasted economic changes Biogenic emissions remain constant Nationally (mobile fleet regs, cross-state rule, MACT) RPOs & EPA have/developing projections to 2015-2020 Locally On/non-road projected per activity forecasts and MOVES/NONROAD Phase-in any local rules on stationary sources New facilities, closures/shut-downs O&G development trends/forecasts Sensitivity tests for source attribution and control response 11
Ozone Attainment Demonstration EPA Model Attainment Test Software (MATS) Ingest 2010 and 2017 CAMx ozone estimates Calculate modeled 2017-2010 change as a relative response factor (RRF) Use RRF to project 2010 design values (DV) at each monitor to 2017 2010 DV is 5-year weighted average over 2008-2012 2017 DV must be <75 ppb at all sites If attainment is not demonstrated: Perform weight of evidence analyses, or Conduct additional local control scenario simulations LDEQ to develop packages of potential reductions 12
