Price Responsive Load Retail DR RMS Update - October 6, 2015
These images and details provide insights into Price Responsive Load Retail DR RMS Update on October 6, 2015. Topics covered include analysis, PUC rules, pricing events in ERCOT, and more. The data visualizations compare actual prices with averages for specific days in 2014. Information is shared on load response capabilities and agreements between Load Serving Entities and ERCOT.
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Presentation Transcript
Price Responsive Load / Retail DR RMS Update Paul Wattles Carl Raish October 6, 2015
RMS topics 2014 analysis - status report 2015 snapshot date review Next steps 2 October 6, 2015 Price Responsive Load / Retail DR
PUC Rule Pursuant to PUC Subst. Rule 25.505(e) (5), Load Serving Entities (LSEs) shall provide ERCOT with complete information on load response capabilities that are self-arranged or pursuant to bilateral agreements between LSEs and their customers 3 October 6, 2015 Price Responsive Load / Retail DR
Pricing Events 2014 ERCOT identified 9 days in calendar year 2014 with pricing events price for 4 or more consecutive intervals exceeded $200 in all four competitive load zones. One of the days, January 6, was an EEA day when prices were at the cap until various forms of demand response kicked in Three of the days were on a Sunday: March 2 and 16, September 21 Graphs on the following slides compare actual prices on those nine days to the average price for that day-type and month 4 October 6, 2015 Price Responsive Load / Retail DR
Pricing Events 2014 5000 5000 Jan 6 EEA event Feb 10 4500 4500 4000 4000 3500 3500 3000 3000 $/MwH $/MwH 2500 2500 2000 2000 1500 1500 1000 1000 500 500 0 0 1 9 17 25 33 41 49 57 65 73 81 89 1 9 17 25 33 41 49 57 65 73 81 89 Actual $ Avg $ Actual $ Avg $ 5000 5000 Mar 3 Mar 2 - Sunday 4500 4500 4000 4000 3500 3500 3000 3000 $/MwH $/MwH 2500 2500 2000 2000 1500 1500 1000 1000 500 500 0 0 1 9 17 25 33 41 49 57 65 73 81 89 1 9 17 25 33 41 49 57 65 73 81 89 Actual $ Avg $ Actual $ Avg $ 5 October 6, 2015 Price Responsive Load / Retail DR
Pricing Events 2014 5000 5000 Apr 7 Mar 16 - Sunday 4500 4500 4000 4000 3500 3500 3000 3000 $/MwH $/MwH 2500 2500 2000 2000 1500 1500 1000 1000 500 500 0 0 1 9 17 25 33 41 49 57 65 73 81 89 1 9 17 25 33 41 49 57 65 73 81 89 Actual $ Avg $ Actual $ Avg $ 5000 5000 May 30 Sep 21 - Sunday 4500 4500 4000 4000 3500 3500 3000 3000 $/MwH $/MwH 2500 2500 2000 2000 1500 1500 1000 1000 500 500 0 0 1 9 17 25 33 41 49 57 65 73 81 89 1 9 17 25 33 41 49 57 65 73 81 89 Actual $ Avg $ Actual $ Avg $ 6 October 6, 2015 Price Responsive Load / Retail DR
Pricing Events 2014 (continued) 5000 Nov 13 4500 4000 3500 3000 $/MwH 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1 9 17 25 33 41 49 57 65 73 81 89 Actual $ Avg $ 7 October 6, 2015 Price Responsive Load / Retail DR
4-CP 8 October 6, 2015 Price Responsive Load / Retail DR
Number of ESIIDs with 4 CP Responses 2014 Response Type Reduce Hour 1,447 Reduce Day 395 Total Respond Non Respond 11,306 4 CP Days 30-Jun-14 1,842 21-Jul-14 1,211 406 1,617 11,534 25-Aug-14 1,568 415 1,983 11,176 10-Sep-14 1,417 389 1,806 11,343 9 October 6, 2015 Price Responsive Load / Retail DR
Hour-ending 17:00 MW Reductions on 4 CP Days - 2014 MW Load Reduction for Responding 4-CP ESIIDS Reductions for Hour Ending 17:00 Total Response Reduce Hour Reduce Day 4 CP Days 16-Jun-14 643.1 477.3 165.8 21-Jul-14 299.2 183.6 115.5 25-Aug-14 715.2 526.9 188.2 10-Sep-14 779.6 555.2 188.2 Near CP Day with Largest Response 8-Aug-14 624.2 504.9 119.3 10 October 6, 2015 Price Responsive Load / Retail DR
Hour-ending 17:00 Reductions on 4 CP Days - 2014 July 21, 2014 June 30, 2014 2500.0 2500.0 2000.0 2000.0 1500.0 1500.0 MW MW 1000.0 1000.0 500.0 500.0 0.0 0.0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Interval Interval Actual Baseline Reduce HR 17:00 Actual Baseline Reduce HR 17:00 August 25, 2014 September 10, 2014 2500.0 2500.0 2000.0 2000.0 1500.0 1500.0 MW MW 1000.0 1000.0 500.0 500.0 0.0 0.0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Interval Interval Actual Baseline Reduce HR 17:00 Actual Baseline Reduce HR 17:00 11 October 6, 2015 Price Responsive Load / Retail DR
4 CP 15-Minute Response 2009 - 2014 Reduce MW Near-CP Date Near-CP Time Reduce MW Near-CP Date Near-CP Time Reduce MW CP Date CP Time CP Date CP Time Reduce MW 6/25/2009 7/13/2009 8/5/2009 9/3/2009 16:15 17:00 16:00 16:00 558.8 394.5 486.7 401.7 6/4/2009 6/12/2009 6/16/2009 6/24/2009 7/8/2009 7/10/2009 7/17/2009 7/31/2009 8/4/2009 8/6/2009 9/2/2009 17:00 17:00 17:00 16:30 16:45 16:45 16:45 16:00 17:00 17:00 17:00 348.2 349.2 407.8 535.0 397.0 402.2 403.1 377.7 405.7 333.7 416.5 6/26/2012 7/31/2012 8/1/2012 9/5/2012 16:30 17:00 17:00 17:00 725.2 599.6 526.7 655.6 6/11/2012 6/25/2012 7/20/2012 7/30/2012 8/2/2012 9/4/2012 9/6/2012 9/7/2012 9/28/2012 16:30 17:00 16:00 16:45 16:45 16:45 17:00 16:30 14:30 532.6 641.7 489.1 665.7 518.1 549.0 683.6 694.6 171.2 average 460.4 n=11 average 397.8 average 626.8 n=9 average 549.5 6/21/2010 7/16/2010 8/23/2010 9/14/2010 16:45 16:30 16:00 16:45 335.6 434.2 424.9 474.3 6/18/2010 6/22/2010 6/23/2010 6/23/2010 7/14/2010 7/15/2010 8/3/2010 8/4/2010 8/5/2010 8/11/2010 8/20/2010 9/1/2010 16:00 16:30 17:00 17:00 17:00 16:45 16:30 16:45 16:30 15:15 15:30 15:30 353.6 468.1 344.7 428.8 522.0 560.9 445.1 508.0 448.9 126.7 176.5 336.7 6/27/2013 7/31/2013 8/7/2013 9/3/2013 17:00 17:00 16:45 16:45 585.7 600.5 601.9 471.7 6/19/2013 6/26/2013 6/28/2013 7/9/2013 7/10/2013 8/1/2013 8/6/2013 9/4/2013 16:30 17:00 17:00 16:45 17:00 16:45 16:45 17:00 337.8 385.8 603.5 339.2 413.5 607.3 515.9 477.0 average 417.3 n=12 average 393.3 average 565.0 n=8 average 460.0 6/15/2011 7/27/2011 8/3/2011 9/2/2011 17:00 16:30 17:00 16:30 631.2 566.4 707.7 639.6 6/14/2011 6/16/2011 6/17/2011 6/28/2011 7/7/2011 7/13/2011 7/14/2011 8/1/2011 8/2/2011 8/5/2011 8/23/2011 9/1/2011 9/13/2011 17:00 17:00 16:45 17:00 16:45 17:00 16:45 16:45 16:45 16:45 16:45 16:45 16:30 494.0 355.1 562.9 428.1 461.3 594.6 636.2 468.7 640.3 478.0 403.7 540.6 533.3 6/30/2014 7/21/2014 8/25/2014 9/10/2014 16:30 16:45 17:00 17:00 662.5 304.0 714.0 781.9 6/3/2014 7/8/2014 7/14/2014 7/22/2014 7/25/2014 8/6/2014 8/8/2014 8/21/2014 8/22/2014 9/2/2014 9/9/2014 17:00 16:30 15:00 16:45 17:00 17:00 15:45 16:00 16:30 16:30 16:45 316.5 436.3 249.0 476.2 490.4 396.5 448.5 318.4 565.0 729.8 560.5 average 636.2 n=13 average 507.4 average 615.6 n=11 average 416.1 12
4-CP Interval Reductions on 4 CP Days - 2014 Percentage of Load Reduction based on Customer Peak < 1.5 MW 1.5 - 10 MW 10 - 30 MW >30 MW Total Reduction Percent of Total Reduction 17.7% Percent of Total Reduction 25.2% Percent of Total Reduction 15.3% Percent of Total Reduction 41.9% 4 CP Days Total Reduction Total Reduction Total Reduction Total Reduction 30-Jun-14 113.6 161.8 98.4 269.0 642.8 21-Jul-14 81.5 27.3% 111.7 37.4% 30.6 10.2% 75.1 25.1% 298.8 25-Aug-14 147.5 20.6% 156.8 21.9% 99.3 13.9% 310.9 43.5% 714.5 10-Sep-14 138.5 17.8% 178.6 22.9% 123.6 15.9% 338.4 43.4% 779.0 13
Other Load Control 14 October 6, 2015 Price Responsive Load / Retail DR
2014 OLC Analysis 5 Reps reported OLC programs in 2014 ~19,200 Res and 64 Bus customers 3 Reps reported 7 deployments in 2014 affecting 3,200 Res and 5 Bus customers 4 events (3 in Aug, 1 in Oct) showed no evidence of any load reduction May and October days combined into composite graphs to approximate the total OLC load reduction that could occur with same-day deployment 14,000 May Composite Day 12,000 10,000 8,000 KW 6,000 4,000 2,000 - - 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Interval base actual reduce 12,000 16,000 Mid October Composite Day Early Oct Composite Day 14,000 10,000 12,000 8,000 10,000 KW KW 6,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 4,000 2,000 2,000 - - - 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 - 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Interval Interval base actual reduce base actual reduce 15 October 6, 2015 Price Responsive Load / Retail DR
Peak Rebate 16 October 6, 2015 Price Responsive Load / Retail DR
2014 PR Analysis 6 Reps reported PR programs in 2014 ~ 410,700 Res and 30,200 Bus customers With DLC: Res 4,400 Bus 4 4 Reps reported 9 deployments in 2014 affecting 32,100 Res and 143 Bus customers With DLC: Res 4,400 Bus 4 3 events (1 in Sep, 2 in Oct) showed no evidence of any load reduction 6 events showed obvious reductions ranging from 27 40 MW August and September days are combined into composite graphs to approximate the total PR load reduction that could occur with same-day deployment 500 500 August Composite Day September Composite Day 450 450 400 400 350 350 300 300 MW MW 250 250 200 200 150 150 100 100 50 50 - - 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Interval Interval base actual reduce base actual reduce 17 October 6, 2015 Price Responsive Load / Retail DR
Real Time Pricing 18 October 6, 2015 Price Responsive Load / Retail DR
2014 RTP Analysis 11 Reps reported RTP programs in 2014 ~ 1,000 Res and 9,700 Bus customers None with DLC 2 pricing events days (Jan 6 and Mar 3) with evidence of load reduction Jan 6: ~4,500 customers ~12.9 MW of load reduction (~8.8 MW from BUSIDRRQ) Mar 3 ~5,000 customers ~7.4 MW load reduction (~4.4 MW from BUSIDRRQ) Note: EEA related Load reduction led to price drop, and RTP related load reduction mostly occurred following the price drop 250 6000 250 6000 Jan 6, 2014 EEA Day Mar 3, 2014 5000 5000 200 200 4000 4000 150 150 MW MW 3000 3000 100 100 2000 2000 50 50 1000 1000 - 0 - 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 20 40 60 80 Interval Interval base actual reduce Prices base actual reduce Prices 19 October 6, 2015 Price Responsive Load / Retail DR
Block and Index 20 October 6, 2015 Price Responsive Load / Retail DR
2014 BI Analysis 16 Reps reported BI programs in 2014 ~ 6,800 Bus customers None with DLC 2 pricing events days (Jan 6 and Mar 3) with evidence of load reduction Jan 6: ~5,400 customers ~507.9 MW of load reduction (~330.4 MW from BUSIDRRQ) Mar 3 ~5,700 customers ~229.3 MW load reduction (~43.6 MW from BUSIDRRQ) Note: EEA related Load reduction led to price drop, and BI related load reduction during high price intervals did occur prior to the price drop Jan 6: 455 MW in interval 30 when price was $2,800 Mar 3: 179 MW in interval 28 when price was $4,990 3,500 6000 3,500 6000 Jan 6, 2014 EEA Day Mar 3, 2014 3,000 3,000 5000 5000 2,500 2,500 4000 4000 2,000 2,000 MW MW 3000 3000 1,500 1,500 2000 2000 1,000 1,000 1000 1000 500 500 - 0 - 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 20 40 60 80 Interval Interval base actual reduce Prices base actual reduce Prices 21 October 6, 2015 Price Responsive Load / Retail DR
Combined Price Response - 2014 Category 4-CP Other Load Control Peak Rebate Real Time Pricing Block and Index Critical Peak Pricing Time Of Use Total Response (MW) 710 5 40 5 180 0 Analysis in Progress 940 Response reported for ERCOT competitive areas only Customers responding to 4-CP and participating in RTP or BI were excluded from RTP and BI totals. 4-CP customers on RTP reduced load by 9 MW during January pricing event 4-CP customers on BI reduced load by 330 MW during January pricing event 22 October 6, 2015 Price Responsive Load / Retail DR
Updated Categories pg. 1 of 3 Demand Response category (improved) definitions: RTP Real Time Pricing - retail prices for all hours or intervals based on ERCOT Real-Time Settlement Point Prices for the premise Load Zone, calculated every 15 minutes, or other real-time wholesale price indicator(s). BI Block & Index fixed pricing for a defined volume of usage, coupled with pricing indexed to the wholesale market for usage exceeding the block. Block prices and volumes may vary by time of day/week. (removed last line from definition - Option could include if usage dips below the block.) PR Peak Rebates a retail offering in which the customer is eligible for a financial incentive paid for load reductions taken during periods of time identified by the LSE, and communicated to the customer during the prior day or the event day, or both. LSE has defined a method to identify whether a customer has responded and to quantify the response amount. Payment (rebate) to customer is based upon customer s response. Peak Rebate examples - No DLC: The REP sends an email one day prior if high prices are forecasted, and sends a reminder text/tweet the morning of the following day. The REP identifies responding customers using a recent similar weather day as a baseline to estimate what the customer s load would have been.If the customer s actual load during the predicted intervals was lower than the baseline, the REP agrees to pay the customer $100 / kw of reduction. DLC: REP sends email one day prior if high prices are forecasted, and sends a reminder text/tweet the morning of the following day. When high prices materialize, the REP sends a signal to the customer s web-enabled thermostat to increase its set point by 3 degrees. The REP establishes a baseline for the customer to estimate what the customer s load would have been.If the customer s actual load during the predicted intervals was lower than the baseline, the REP agrees to pay the customer $100 / kw of reduction. 23 October 6, 2015 Price Responsive Load / Retail DR
Updated Categories pg. 2 of 3 Demand Response category definitions: CPP Critical Peak Pricing prices that rise during critical peaks: limited duration periods of time identified by the LSE that usually correlate to high prices in the real-time wholesale market. Critical peak events may occur a limited number of times per year and typically are communicated a day in advance. TOU Time of Use prices that vary across defined blocks of hours, with predefined prices and schedules. (As used here, does not apply to seasonal adjustments). TOU Example free evening hours OLC Other Direct Load Control contracts that allow the LSE or a third party to control the customer s load remotely for economic or grid reliability purposes. This category applies to Direct Load Control (DLC) with different deployment criteria than described elsewhere. (Avoid double counting if DLC data was reported in other categories.). Customer incentive is predefined and does not vary based upon the response. OLC Example - OLC (always has DLC) REP identifies a day on which high prices have, or are about to, materialize. The REP sends a signal to the customer s web-enabled thermostat to increase its set point by 3 degrees. The REP agrees to pay the customer $10 / month for each summer month, and the customer agrees to allow the thermostat to be set higher 10 times during the summer for periods up to 2 hours long. If the customer overrides the REP thermostat setting during a month, the customer s payment is reduced by $3. OTH Other Voluntary Demand Response Product any retail product not covered in the other categories that includes a demand response incentive or signal. 24 October 6, 2015 Price Responsive Load / Retail DR
Updated Categories pg. 3 of 3 Demand Response category definitions: NOTE will not use 4CP and FO categories for summer 2015 data collection 4CP Four Coincident Peak predictor signals or direct load control provided to customers in advance of potential Four Coincident Peak (4CP) intervals during summer months (June through September). Reducing load during such intervals lowers transmission charges. 4CP charges apply to large customers (peak demand 700 kW) in competitive choice areas, and also to NOIEs at the boundary meter level. FO Financial Option product where LSE purchases an option from the customer that is backed by a specified level of DR and uses it for portfolio trades in the wholesale market. 4CP - ERCOT can do the 4CP analysis without the need to ask the LSEs to provide data in the survey. FO category has not been used for 2 years 25 October 6, 2015 Price Responsive Load / Retail DR
Snapshot for Summer 2015 2015 Summer data collection timeline September 30, 2015 - snapshot by REPs for which ESI IDs are in programs November 4, 2015 - file submission to ERCOT* November 18, 2015 - error correction file submission to ERCOT * pushed file submission back by 2 weeks to allow any error handling to be completed prior to Thanksgiving Holiday REP should make all necessary corrections and re-send the full file to ERCOT. ERCOT will use the last file sent for data analysis. ERCOT will send survey monkey after receipt of clean data or declaring uncle December 1, 2015 ERCOT will send Survey Monkey links to REPs to gather REP-specific event information December 11, 2015 Survey Monkey responses due 26 October 6, 2015 Price Responsive Load / Retail DR
Next Steps for future Still for future discussion Future years (starting 2016?) Evaluate quarterly submissions for 2016 Ask REPs to evaluate winter programs for future consideration Please review categories to see if definitions fit or if new categories would need to be added Consider possible dates and/or frequency of a winter file submission Protocol Revision and/or Market Guide Revision? Review categories each year to see if adjustments need to be made Review reporting of events via Survey Monkey to see if there is a better method to leverage 27 October 6, 2015 Price Responsive Load / Retail DR
Take Aways REPs Prepare to take the snapshot for Sept 30th Log self-initiated events in preparation for the survey Map product types to the categories in the guide If unsure which category to use please ask Carl Raish (carl.raish@ercot.com) Paul Wattles (paul.wattles@ercot.com) Karen Farley (karen.farley@ercot.com) ERCOT ERCOT will continue work on TOU analysis for future report to market. 28 October 6, 2015 Price Responsive Load / Retail DR
Questions? ON OFF 29 October 6, 2015 Price Responsive Load / Retail DR
