Provisional and Revised GDP Estimates for Second Quarter 2017
Explore the provisional and revised Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimates for the second quarter of 2017 presented by Mr. Baah Wadieh, the Government Statistician. Gain insights into the key indicators of Quarterly GDP and Annual GDP, along with sector-wise distribution of GDP estimates. Discover the stages of GDP estimation and the updated figures for 2016. Stay informed about the upcoming revisions to the 2017 GDP estimates.
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Release of the Release of the provisional GROSS provisional GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) for SECOND quarter 2017 for SECOND quarter 2017 by by Mr. Mr. baah baah wadieh Ag. GOVERNMENT Ag. GOVERNMENT statistician wadieh statistician GDP Presentation September 27, 2017 1
Revised Annual GDP for 2016 Memorandum items Provisional GDP estimates for second quarter of 2017 Revised GDP estimates for the first quarter of 2017 Highlights GDP Presentation September 27, 2017 2
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the value of final goods and services produced in the country. Two key indicators are presented in this release: Quarterly GDP which measures the value of final goods and services within a period of three months or one quarter. Annual GDP which measures the value of final goods and services within a period of twelve months or one year. GDP Presentation September 27, 2017 3
The estimation of the GDP is done in stages, with the estimates generated at each stage being dependent on available data. Estimates from each stage are progressively designated as provisional, revised and final. This release contains the provisional GDP estimates for the second quarter of 2017, revised GDP estimates for first quarter of 2017 and revised annual GDP estimates 2016. Further revisions to the 2017 GDP estimates will be carried out in December 2017. GDP Presentation September 27, 2017 4
The revised current GDP estimate (incl. Oil) for 2016 is GH GH 167,353.4 167,353.4 million. The revised current GDP estimate (excl. Oil) for 2016 is GH GH 164,098.7 164,098.7 million. GDP Presentation September 27, 2017 6
Sector Sector GDP Estimate 29,565.3 GDP Estimate Percentage Distribution Percentage Distribution Agriculture 18.9% Industry 37,964.9 24.3% Services 88,946.3 56.8% GDP at basic prices (including FISIM) 156,476.6 100.0% GDP at purchaser s value (including FISIM and net indirect taxes) 167,353.4 GDP Presentation September 27, 2017 7
The revised GDP estimate (incl. Oil) at constant prices for 2016 is GH GH 36,103.6 36,103.6 million. The revised GDP estimate (excl. Oil) at constant prices for 2016 is GH million. GH 34,378.7 34,378.7 GDP Presentation September 27, 2017 8
Revised Sectoral GDP Growth Rate for 2016 (incl. Oil) 2016 Revised (April 2017 edition) 2016 Revised (Sept. 2017 edition) Sector Overall 3.5 3.7 3.0 3.0 Agriculture -1.4 -0.5 Industry 5.7 5.7 Services GDP Presentation September 27, 2017 9
Economic Aggregate Population estimate (million) Exchange rate, Interbank average ( /$) Current GDP, incl. Oil (million GH ) Current GDP, excl. Oil (million GH ) Current GDP, incl. Oil (million US$) Current GDP, excl. Oil (million US$) Per capita GDP (GH ) Per capita GDP (US$) Economic Aggregate 2015 27.7 3.78 136,957 167,353 131,647 164,099 36,264 34,858 4,950 1,311 2015 2016* 28.3 3.92 2016* 42,685 41,855 5,911 1,508 Growth Rates GDP (incl. Oil) at constant 2006 prices Non-Oil GDP at constant 2006 prices Change in GDP deflator *Revised Growth Rates 3.8 4.0 16.4 3.7 5.0 17.8 GDP Presentation April 26, 2016 10
GDP Presentation September 27, 2017 11
The provisional 2017 Q2 GDP estimate (incl. oil) at current prices at purchaser s value1 is GH was GH 38 GH 45 45, ,358 358. .5 5 million. The estimate for 2016 Q2 38, ,061 061. .5 5 million. The provisional 2017 Q2 GDP estimate (excl. oil) at current prices at purchaser s value1 is GH was GH 37 GH 43 43, ,364 364. .1 1 million. The value for 2016 Q2 37, ,641 641. .6 6 million. 1Includes FISIM and Net Indirect Taxes GDP Presentation September 27, 2017 12
Sector Sector GDP Estimate 4,904.8 11,357.9 26,513.8 GDP Estimate Percentage Distribution Percentage Distribution Agriculture Industry Services 11.5% 26.5% 62.0% GDP at basic prices (including FISIM) 42,776.5 100.0% GDP at purchaser s value (including FISIM and net indirect taxes) 45,358.5 GDP Presentation September 27, 2017 13
The constant GDP estimate (incl. oil) for Q2 of 2017 is GH for Q2 of 2016 was GH 8,105.5 million. GH 8 8, ,835 835. .9 9 million while the estimate The constant GDP estimate (excl. oil) for Q2 of 2017 is GH for Q2 of 2016 was GH 7,884.9 million. GH 8 8, ,200 200. .6 6 million. The value recorded GDP Presentation September 27, 2017 14
The provisional 2017 Q2 Real GDP (incl. Oil1) grew by 9.0% year-on-year compared to 1.1% recorded for 2016 Q2. The non-Oil provisional 2017 Q2 Real GDP grew by 4.0% year-on-year compared to 5.5% recorded for 2016 Q2. Quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted 2017 Q2 GDP grew by 2.0% compared to 1.5% recorded for 2017 Q1. Note Note: incl. Oil : incl. Oil1 1 means Oil and Gas means Oil and Gas GDP Presentation September 27, 2017 15
The quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted GDP growth rate for the 2nd quarter of 2017 was 2.0%. This means that the value of goods and services produced in the 2nd quarter of 2017 grew by 2.0% over the value recorded in the 1st quarter of 2017. Seasonally Adjusted Constant GDP ( (GH GDP Estimate 8,808.5 8,916.6 9,025.9 9,158.6 9,341.2 Seasonally Adjusted Constant GDP GH million) million) Growth Rate (%) 0.3 1.2 1.2 1.5 2.0 Quarter 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 Quarter 16 GDP Presentation September 27, 2017
The year-on-year quarterly GDP growth rate for Agriculture is 3.4% for the second quarter of 2017. The Crops sub-sector recorded the highest year-on-year growth rate of 8.3% while the Fishing sub-sector recorded the lowest growth rate of -17.6%. GDP Q2 2016 (GH million) Crops o/w Cocoa Livestock Forestry & logging Fishing Total GDP GDP GDP Q2 2016 Q2 2017 (GH million) Q2 2017 Y/Y Change Rate (%) Y/Y Change Rate (%) Agriculture Sub Agriculture Sub- -sector sector 648.6 74.0 8.3 15.6 5.6 0.9 -17.6 3.4 598.9 64.0 142.5 196.8 131.6 1,069.8 150.5 198.6 108.4 1,106.2 Total 3.4 1,069.8 1,106.2 GDP Presentation September 27, 2017 17
The year-on-year quarterly GDP growth rate for the Industry sector is 19.3% for Q2 of 2017. The Mining & Quarrying sub-sector recorded the highest year- on-year quarterly GDP growth rate of 75.0% for Q2 of 2017, while the Construction sub-sector recorded the lowest (0.8%). GDP GDP GDP GDP Q2 2016 (GH million) 426.8 220.6 629.5 Q2 2016 Q2 2017 (GH million) 746.9 635.3 671.1 Q2 2017 Y/Y Change Rate (%) Y/Y Change Rate (%) Industry Sub Mining and Quarrying o/w Oil and Gas Manufacturing Electricity Water & Sewerage Construction Total Industry Sub- -sector sector 75.0 188.0 6.6 8.4 13.3 0.8 19.3 59.1 74.0 790.7 1,980.2 64.0 83.8 796.9 2,362.7 2,362.7 19.3 Total 1,980.2 GDP Presentation September 27, 2017 18
For the second quarter of 2017, the Services sector recorded a year-on-year quarterly GDP growth rate of 5.6%. The Health and Social Work sub-sector recorded the highest year-on-year quarterly GDP growth rate of 18.3% while the Hotel and Restaurants sub- sector recorded the lowest growth rate of 1.0%. GDP GDP GDP GDP Y/Y Change Rate (%) Y/Y Change Rate (%) Q2 2016 Q2 2016 Q2 2017 Q2 2017 Services Sub Trade, Repair of Vehicles, Household Goods Hotels & Restaurants Transport & Storage Information & Communication Financial & Insurance Activities Real Estate & Other Service Activities Public Administration Education Health & Social Work Community, Social & Other Personal Service Activities Total Services Sub- -sector sector 668.8 334.3 1,026.7 818.4 420.6 342.4 354.6 371.4 144.0 690.0 337.7 1,040.9 946.1 426.2 368.4 361.4 406.9 170.4 3.2 1.0 1.4 15.6 1.3 7.6 1.9 9.6 18.3 1.3 5.6 347.2 4,828.4 351.8 5,099.8 4,828.4 5.6 Total 5,099.8 19 GDP Presentation September 27, 2017
The revisedannual GDP estimate for 2016 at current prices is GH 167,353.4 167,353.4 million. The corresponding per capita GDP for 2016 is GH 5,911. The 2016 revised annual GDP at constant prices is estimated at GH 36,104 36,104 million. The revised annual growth rate for 2016 is 3.7%. 20 GDP Presentation September 27, 2017
The Q2 2017 GDP (Incl. Oil) at current prices was estimated at GH 45,358.5 million. The corresponding value recorded for Q2 2016 was GH 38,061.5 million. In constant terms, the Q2 2017 GDP was estimated at GH 8,835.9 million. For Q2 2016, the estimated value was GH 8,105.5 million. The year-on-year quarterly GDP growth rate for Q2 2017 was 9.0% compared to the 1.1% recorded for Q2 2016. The quarter-on-quarter GDP growth rate (seasonally adjusted) for Q2 2017 was 2.0%. The rate recorded for the first quarter of 2017 was 1.5%. GDP Presentation September 27, 2017 21
