Public Opinion and Government Dynamics

: : Opinions, Opinions, Interests, Interests, and Organizations and Organizations CHAPTER 7: PUBLIC OPINION

PUBLIC OPINION How people feel about different things How people feel about different things Abortion is bad Abortion is good Gun control is bad Gun control is good Same sex marriage is bad Same sex marriage is good A bigger military is bad A bigger military is good Welfare is good Welfare is bad

PUBLIC OPINION There are many shifting publics! There are many shifting publics! Abortion Gun control Abortion Gun control Welfare Welfare Same sex marriage Same sex marriage

THE AMERICAN CITIZENRY Is poorly informed about government Is poorly informed about government Doesn t care about MOST public policy Doesn t care about MOST public policy positions positions But, it good at using cues which favor the But, it good at using cues which favor the positions they do care about when supporting positions they do care about when supporting or opposing: or opposing: Policies Policies Parties Parties Candidates Candidates

FOUNDING FEELINGS Did not want the government OVERLY Did not want the government OVERLY responsive (reactive) to public opinion responsive (reactive) to public opinion Wanted the government keeping an eye on the Wanted the government keeping an eye on the BIG ISSUES BIG ISSUES

FOUNDING FEELINGS Shielding the government from Public Opinion Shielding the government from Public Opinion Divided government as a check Divided government as a check Federalism Federalism Separation of Powers Separation of Powers Bill of Rights Bill of Rights Independent Judiciary Independent Judiciary Many different publics working against each other Many different publics working against each other

POLLING Survey of public opinion Survey of public opinion Keys to good polling Keys to good polling Ask questions which people can understand Ask questions which people can understand Word the questions fairly, take care to eliminate Word the questions fairly, take care to eliminate leading words and bias leading words and bias A true American s favorite colors are A true American s favorite colors are red red, , white white, and , and blue blue. . Are these your favorite colors? Are these your favorite colors?

POLLING Keys to good polling Keys to good polling Get good numbers (1,065 minimum) Get good numbers (1,065 minimum) RANDOM sampling RANDOM sampling Any given adult has Any given adult has an equal shot at an equal shot at being questioned being questioned Subgroups are Subgroups are represented in represented in proportion to its proportion to its population numbers population numbers

POLLING Sampling Error Sampling Error Natural deviation is inevitable Natural deviation is inevitable 3% is a good goal 3% is a good goal Makes very close elections difficult to predict Makes very close elections difficult to predict

POLLING Big/national elections Big/national elections Polling is fairly accurate Polling is fairly accurate Exit polls Exit polls Random voters leaving Random voters leaving the voting station the voting station Random voting Random voting districts districts VERY accurate! VERY accurate!

OPINION VOCABULARY Saliency Saliency level of concern on an issue concern on an issue level of Stability Stability the consistency of opinion over time the consistency of opinion over time Opinion Opinion- -Policy CONGRUENCE Policy CONGRUENCE how in sync the how in sync the government policy is government policy is with public opinion with public opinion

OPINION VOCABULARY Political Socialization Political Socialization process by which people develop political views develop political views Political Elites Political Elites people with a larger people with a larger share of political share of political power or interest power or interest or both or both process by which people

POLITICAL SOCIALIZATION The Family The Family GREATLY affects party identification in young adults GREATLY affects party identification in young adults Effect wanes as one matures Effect wanes as one matures Those with STRONG party identification are more Those with STRONG party identification are more likely to pass along the party affiliation likely to pass along the party affiliation Growth of Independents comes at a cost Growth of Independents comes at a cost losses by Democrats and Republicans by Democrats and Republicans losses

POLITICAL SOCIALIZATION Religion Religion Most pronounced on social issues Most pronounced on social issues

CLEAVAGES (DEFINE ON TOP OF THE FIRST PAGE OF CHARTS) CLEAVEAGE CLEAVEAGE A critical division in opinion, A critical division in opinion, beliefs, interests, etc. as leading to opposition beliefs, interests, etc. as leading to opposition between political groups between political groups

CLEAVAGES Gender Gender 1960s Since the mid Since the mid- -1960s Men becoming more Republican Men becoming more Republican Women have stayed relatively consistent Women have stayed relatively consistent Political issues separating men and women Political issues separating men and women Gun control Gun control Government size Government size Spending on social programs Spending on social programs Gay rights Gay rights

CLEAVAGES Schooling Schooling College College BIG impact BIG impact Tends to make you more liberal Tends to make you more liberal Higher education Higher education Increased political involvement Increased political involvement Increased voting Increased voting

CLEAVAGES Schooling Schooling Modern graduates Modern graduates Not as clearly defined as in the 60s Not as clearly defined as in the 60s Slacker generation ( Slacker generation (hahahaha Less likely to read news articles Less likely to read news articles More likely to More likely to Tune into talk radio Tune into talk radio Get information from the Get information from the Internet Internet hahahaha) )

CLEAVAGES Class Class Not as pronounced as in Europe Not as pronounced as in Europe Political Political Leaning Leaning Notes Notes Not a very good indicator Not a very good indicator of party of party Unskilled Unskilled Workers Workers Democrat Democrat White Collar White Collar Workers Workers Republican Republican

CLEAVAGES Use your notes to complete Use your notes to complete Schooling Schooling Gender Gender in your packet. in your packet. Check your answers with a partner Check your answers with a partner when you are finished. when you are finished.

CLEAVAGES Race: Latino Race: Latino Leaning Leaning Notes Notes Latino: Latino: America and Mexico Mexico Democrat Democrat Not a very good indicator of party Not a very good indicator of party Central Central America and Favor bigger Favor bigger government Oppose expanding abortion rights Oppose expanding abortion rights Feel Democrats handle the economy Feel Democrats handle the economy better better Same as above Same as above government Latino: Latino: Puerto Rican Puerto Rican Moderate Moderate Latino: Latino: Cuban Cuban Republican Republican Same as above Same as above

CLEAVAGES Use your text to complete Use your text to complete Race: Whites Race: Whites Race: African Americans Race: African Americans in your packet. in your packet. Check your answers with a partner Check your answers with a partner when you are finished. when you are finished.

CLEAVAGES Race: Asian Americans Race: Asian Americans Leaning Leaning Notes Notes From: From: PEWRESEARCH PEWRESEARCH : SOCIAL AND : SOCIAL AND DEMOGRAPHIC DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS TRENDS Among all American adults, 49% fall Among all American adults, 49% fall in the Democratic camp and 39% in the Democratic camp and 39% identify with or lean toward the identify with or lean toward the Republican Party. Republican Party. Despite often sizable subgroup Despite often sizable subgroup differences, Asian Americans are differences, Asian Americans are distinctive as a whole, especially distinctive as a whole, especially when compared with all U.S. adults when compared with all U.S. adults strong emphasis on family strong emphasis on family Indian Americans are the most Indian Americans are the most heavily Democratic Asian subgroup heavily Democratic Asian subgroup (65%) (65%) The Rise of The Rise of Asian Asian Americans Americans have a pervasive belief in the have a pervasive belief in the rewards of hard work rewards of hard work more likely to support an activist more likely to support an activist government government Hmong and Korean Americans also Hmong and Korean Americans also lean heavily Democratic lean heavily Democratic Updated Updated Edition, April Edition, April 04, 2013 04, 2013 54% of Asian Americans say 54% of Asian Americans say abortion should be legal in all or abortion should be legal in all or most cases most cases Filipino Americans and Vietnamese Filipino Americans and Vietnamese Americans are the most evenly split Americans are the most evenly split between the two parties. between the two parties. more likely than whites to support more likely than whites to support affirmative action affirmative action

REGIONAL CLEAVAGES

POLITICAL IDEOLOGY Political ideology Political ideology A consistent set of beliefs A consistent set of beliefs about what policies the government should about what policies the government should follow follow Ideological constraint Ideological constraint how consistent one s political opinion on an issue remains over time political opinion on an issue remains over time or from one issue to another issue or from one issue to another issue how consistent one s

LIBERALISM & CONSERVATISM Liberalism Liberalism an active central government central government willing to engage in the willing to engage in the economy and social economy and social welfare welfare an active Conservatism Conservatism Free market economy Free market economy over government over government regulation regulation State government control State government control over central government over central government control control Individual choice over Individual choice over government control government control

EXPANDING THE MODEL BEYOND LEFT OR RIGHT

EXPANDING THE MODEL BEYOND LEFT OR RIGHT Pure liberal ideology Pure liberal ideology Liberal on economic issues Liberal on economic issues Government should work to reduce inequality Government should work to reduce inequality Government should regulate business Government should regulate business Government should tax the rich heavily Government should tax the rich heavily Liberal on issues of personal conduct Liberal on issues of personal conduct Allow abortions Allow abortions Protect the rights of the accused Protect the rights of the accused Broadest possible freedoms of expression Broadest possible freedoms of expression Pure liberal traits Pure liberal traits Young Young College educated College educated Nonreligious Nonreligious

EXPANDING THE MODEL BEYOND LEFT OR RIGHT Pure conservative ideology Pure conservative ideology Conservative on economic issues Conservative on economic issues Cut back on welfare Cut back on welfare Allow the market to allocate goods and services Allow the market to allocate goods and services Keep taxes low Keep taxes low Conservative on issues of personal conduct Conservative on issues of personal conduct Lock up criminals Lock up criminals Curb anti Curb anti- -social conduct social conduct Pure conservative traits Pure conservative traits Older Older Higher income Higher income White White Mid Mid- -westerner westerner

EXPANDING THE MODEL BEYOND LEFT OR RIGHT Libertarian ideology Conservative on economic issues Conservative on economic issues Small weak government with little control over economic matters Small weak government with little control over economic matters Liberal on issues of personal conduct Liberal on issues of personal conduct Small weak government with little control over personal conduct Small weak government with little control over personal conduct Libertarian ideology Libertarian traits Libertarian traits Young Young College College- -educated White White Higher income Higher income Nonreligious Nonreligious Westerner Westerner educated

EXPANDING THE MODEL BEYOND LEFT OR RIGHT Populist ideology Populist ideology Liberal on economic issues Liberal on economic issues Government should work to reduce economic inequality Government should work to reduce economic inequality Government should control business Government should control business Conservative on issues of personal conduct Conservative on issues of personal conduct Regulate inappropriate personal conduct Regulate inappropriate personal conduct Lock up criminals Lock up criminals Permit prayer in schools Permit prayer in schools Populist traits Populist traits Older Older Poorly educated Poorly educated Lower income Lower income Religious Religious Female Female Southerner or Midwesterner Southerner or Midwesterner

POLITICAL ELITES Casually referred to as Casually referred to as Political Activists Political Activists Usually more consistent than Joe Average Usually more consistent than Joe Average The more involved in the political process, the The more involved in the political process, the more likely he or she is to have strong political more likely he or she is to have strong political views views

POLITICAL ELITES Why are the elites so consistent? Why are the elites so consistent? Information Information Access to more information reinforces outlook Access to more information reinforces outlook Connections are often made between issues which the Connections are often made between issues which the average person would miss average person would miss Peer Group Peer Group The more you agree with a person s views, the more The more you agree with a person s views, the more likely you will associate with them likely you will associate with them The more you associate with someone, the more your The more you associate with someone, the more your opinions will converge opinions will converge

POLITICAL ELITES, PUBLIC OPINION & PUBLIC POLICY Elites and the public view politics in different Elites and the public view politics in different ways ways Elite Influence Elite Influence Raise political Raise political Frame political issues Frame political issues Set the norms (standard of proper conduct) by Set the norms (standard of proper conduct) by which the issues should be resolved which the issues should be resolved issues issues

LIMITATIONS ON ELITE CONTROL Cannot define Cannot define economic problems economic problems Cannot define Cannot define social problems social problems The people live it, they know it The people live it, they know it Elites may shape policy to address the problems Elites may shape policy to address the problems though though So many different elites that they cancel each So many different elites that they cancel each other out other out(Pluralist Theory) (Pluralist Theory)