Quarterly National Accounts Compilation in Botswana by Lekoko Simako

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"Learn about the framework, classifications, challenges, and production approach of Quarterly National Accounts in Botswana, following the principles of the System of National Accounts. Explore the importance of timely production and the need for revisions in this economic data compilation process."

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COMPILATION OF QUARTERLY NATIONAL ACCOUNTS BOTSWANA BY Lekoko Simako

CONTENTS Background Compilation Framework Classifications GDP by production approach Data Sources by Economic Activity Revisions Challenges Way Forward

Background QNA adopt the same principles, definitions, and structure as the annual national accounts (ANA). In the initial stage of implementation, only estimates of gross domestic product (GDP) by production side can be derived. Extensions can be made as the use of the system becomes more established

Contd. Quarterly accounts have to be produced in a very short period of time Quarterly National Accounts are published 90 days after reference quarter. They cannot be as comprehensive as annual accounts with full articulation of institutional sectors.

Background Rely on roughly estimated data and therefore need to be more frequently revised as more reliable data come into streams Benchmark QNA to annual accounts Quarterly account data needs to be seasonally adjusted

Compilation Framework System of National Accounts (SNA) is used as a framework (1993) SNA designed to apply to countries at any stage of development. Crucial to understand the principles of the SNA and then apply them in light of local circumstances. IMF Quarterly National Accounts Manual

Classifications The SNA uses several classifications International Standard Industrial Classification of All Economic Activities (ISIC) is the international reference classification for productive activities Classification of individual Consumption According to Purpose (COICOP) Classification of the function of Government (COFOG) HS: Foreign Trade

Production approach GDP by the production approach is assumed more reliable It is also called the output approach, measures GDP as the difference between the value of output less the value of goods and services used in producing these outputs during an accounting period

Main sources from the Statistical Office Short-term surveys by economic activity Sales/Turnover (output) and on prices Consumer prices Production prices Export and import prices

Main administrative sources Tax information Government data on revenues and expenditures Financial intermediation and insurance companies Information from large corporations (Mining, Water, Electricity, Communications, Transportation etc Exports and Imports of goods and services

Sources by Activity: AGRICULTURE Quarterly indicators: values/quantities Ministry of agriculture - Actual harvest data (crops, Horticulture) -Forecasts, especially for most recent quarters Surveys (farmers, marketers) Marketing organizations (BAMB) Livestock population Animal slaughter statistics

MINING Quarterly indicators: values/quantities Quarterly sales and inventory figures Administrative data (production statistics) Exports data PPI components/specific purpose price indices

MANUFACTURING Quarterly indicators: values/quantities Surveys: Quantity data Sales figures VAT data (on sales) Export data (eg. Meat products, textiles, polished diamonds etc..) PPI components

Water and Electricity Quarterly indicators: values/quantities Quarterly sales figures Admin records Physical quantity from large utility companies or authorities Electricity generation/consumption water supplied Consumption of inputs PPI components/specific tariffs

Construction Quarterly indicators: values/quantities Building permits (administrative register) Surveys: - Construction companies Input indicators (supply of building materials) Government budget for public construction Road construction, Dams

Wholesale and Retail Trade Surveys of retail and wholesale trade VAT data CPI components

Transportation and Storage Quarterly indicators: values/quantities Surveys : revenue/quantities (passengers or freight Information from large enterprises (airlines, airports, rail, public transportation) Freight: volume of goods handled PPI/CPI components

Accommodation and Service Activities Quarterly indicators: values/quantities Accommodation Survey (Turnover, COE and Employment) - DOT Tourists arrivals CPI components

Financial and Insurance Activities Quarterly indicators: values/quantities Money and banking statistics Stocks of deposits and loans, interest receivable and payable by institutional sector (for FISIM calculation) Life insurance (premiums and claims) Non-life insurance (premiums and benefits) Deflation (on deposits and lending, but not on FISIM directly)

Real Estate Activities Quarterly indicators: values/quantities Surveys VAT data Dwelling rents Stock of dwellings (own-account) Housing price/rates

Public administration; Defence; Social Security Quarterly indicators: values/quantities Government finance statistics Employment Wage index

EDUCATION Quarterly indicators: values/quantities Government finance statistics Survey (Private Education) Quantity indicators from public/private school (number of pupils enrolled, teaching staff number) Wage index/CPI

Human health and social work activities Quarterly indicators: values/quantities Government finance statistics Survey (Private hospital Wage index/CPI

Taxes on products/Subsidies Taxes on imports Value Added Tax Ministry of Finance Values and volumes of imports (preferably with breakdown by type of product)

Revisions Revisions are an essential part of good quarterly national accounts (QNA) because they provide users with data that are as timely and accurate as possible. Good management of the process of revisions requires the existence of a well-established and transparent revision policy. First estimates are normally based on limited or unaudited data and hence cannot be precise and absolute. The figures are revised after receiving finalized or audited data from companies compilation practice

Revisions contd. Quarterly Estimates should be benchmarked to Annual Estimates. Excel Procedure for Bench Marking (XLPBM)is used.

TRAINING Every year National Accountants are invited for different training platforms either by IMF, Afritac South, SADC, MFEMI, AfDB, COMESA. Benchmark to other countries with well established QNA