Rail Industry Report Insights: Safety, Decline in Coal, and Revenue Trends
Discover key insights from the railroad industry report, including safety measures, coal generation decline, and revenue trends. Learn about why freight rail is considered safer than other industries and how coal's share in rail revenue has shifted over the years. Explore data on rail carloads of coal and crude oil, showcasing significant trends in the industry.
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Presentation Transcript
RAILROAD INDUSTRY REPORT Presented to the Rail Energy Transportation Advisory Committee October 7, 2020 SLIDE 11
Why Freight Rail? Safe and Always Working to be Safer Lower Accident & Injury Rates RRs Are Safer Than Most Other Industries 4.5 (injuries per 200,000 employee-hours) 5.5 Air 4.0 5.0 Train Accidents** 2000-2019: 30% Transp. Trucking 4.5 Food & bev. stores 3.5 Manuf. All 4.0 private industry 3.0 Inland water freight transp. 3.5 Agric. 3.0 2.5 RRs 2.5 2.0 2.0 Constr. Mining 1.5 RR Employee Injuries* 2000-2019: 46% 1.5 1.0 1.0 0.5 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17 '19 *Per 100 employee equivalents. **Per million train-miles. 2019 is preliminary Source: FRA 0.0 Data are for 2018. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 2
Coal Generation Continues to Slide Coal Generation Continues to Slide % Share U.S. Electricity Generation 2000 2005 2010 2015 2019 52% 50% 45% 16% 19% 24% 20% 19% 20% 2% 2% 4% 7% 7% 6% 2020* 18% 41% 20% 13% 8% Coal Natural Gas Nuclear Renewables Hydro 33% 33% 20% 7% 6% 23% 38% 20% 11% 7% *Jan-July Source: EIA 3
Sharp Decline in Rail Carloads of Coal (millions) 7.57.7 6.87.1 7.1 6.26.0 6.1 5.3 4.24.5 4.44.0 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 Data are originations for Class I railroads. Source: AAR Freight Commodity Statistics 4
U.S. Rail Revenue From Coal U.S. Rail Revenue From Coal ($ billions) $18 $16 $14 $12 $10 $8 $6 $4 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 Figures are gross revenue for Class I railroads. Source: AAR Freight Commodity Statistics 5
Coal as a % of Rail Revenue Coal as a % of Rail Revenue 27% 24% 21% 18% 15% 12% 9% 6% 3% 0% '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 Data are for Class I railroads. Source: AAR Freight Commodity Statistics 6
U.S. Rail Carloads of U.S. Rail Carloads of Crude Oil by Quarter Crude Oil by Quarter 160,000 Originations 140,000 Terminations 120,000 100,000 80,000 Annual Totals Orig. Term. 60,000 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 409,949 482,525 211,986 271,154 128,967 208,036 173,159 313,478 213,563 387,430 40,000 20,000 0 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Data are for Class I railroads only. Source: AAR Freight Commodity Statistics 7
U.S. Rail Carloads of U.S. Rail Carloads of Industrial Sand by Quarter Industrial Sand by Quarter 200,000 175,000 150,000 125,000 100,000 75,000 50,000 Originations Terminations 25,000 0 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Data are for Class I railroads only. Source: AAR Freight Commodity Statistics 8
U.S. Rail Carloads of Ethanol U.S. Rail Carloads of Ethanol 450,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 '05'06'07'08'09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 Source: STB Waybill Sample 9
Massive Spending on Infrastructure & Equipment* ($ billions) $30.3 $28.0 $25.9$24.8 $24.9$25.1 $25.5$25.1 $23.3 $20.7 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 *Capital spending + maintenance expenses. Data are for Class I RRs. Source: AAR 10
Railroad Spending on Infrastructure and Equipment ($ billions, current dollars) $18 $16 $14 $12 $10 $8 Equipment Infrastructure $6 $4 $2 $0 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17 '19 Data are for Class I railroads. Source: AAR 11
U.S. Rail Carloads of Coal vs. U.S. Electricity From Coal 160 160,000 140 140,000 120 120,000 100 100,000 80 80,000 60 60,000 Generation from coal (left scale)* Coal carloads (right scale)** 40 40,000 20 20,000 0 0 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 *3-month moving average, million megawatthours. **3-month moving average based on weekly originations. Source: EIA, AAR 12
Total U.S. Rail Carloads (6-week moving average) 290,000 2018 275,000 260,000 245,000 2019 230,000 215,000 2020 200,000 185,000 170,000 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 week number Data are 6-week moving average originations, do not include intermodal, and do not include the U.S. operations of CN, CP, and GMXT. Source: AAR Rail Time Indicators SLIDE 1313
U.S. Rail Intermodal Units (6-week moving average) 300,000 2018 (peak year) 290,000 280,000 270,000 260,000 250,000 2019 2020 240,000 230,000 220,000 210,000 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 week number Data are 6-week moving average originations and do not include the U.S. operations of CN, CP, and GMXT. Source: AAR Rail Time Indicators 14
U.S. Rail Carloads of Coal (6-week moving average) 95,000 90,000 2018 85,000 80,000 75,000 70,000 2019 65,000 2020 60,000 55,000 50,000 45,000 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 week number Data are 6-week moving average originations, do not include intermodal, and do not include the U.S. operations of CN, CP, and GMXT. Source: AAR Rail Time Indicators 15
Average Weekly U.S. Rail Carloads of Coal: Jan. 2014 - Sept. 2020 120,000 110,000 12-month average 100,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Data are average weekly originations for each month, do not include intermodal, and do not include the U.S. operations of CN, CP, and GMXT. Source: AAR Rail Time Indicators 16
U.S. Carloads Excluding Coal (6-week moving average) 190,000 184,000 2018 178,000 172,000 2019 166,000 160,000 154,000 2020 148,000 142,000 136,000 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 week number Data are 6-week moving average originations, do not include intermodal, and do not include the U.S. operations of CN, CP, and GMXT. Source: AAR Rail Time Indicators 17
