Real-Time UK Economic Activity Indicators Insights
Discover faster indicators of UK economic activity for insightful forecasting. Utilize real-time data around ports and VAT as leading indicators. Learn about HMRC tax returns, road traffic counts, and port traffic for economic analysis and nowcasting. Explore methods, data, and future suggestions for economic assessment.
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Presentation Transcript
FASTER INDICATORS OF UK ECONOMIC Louisa Nolan 3 April 2019 ACTIVITY
Real-time Identify close-to-real-time data which represents useful economic concepts Large changes Create early-warning indicators of potentially large economic impacts Insights Provide insights into economic activity, especially around ports Nowcasting Improve power of nowcasting / forecasting models OBJECTIVES
HMRC value added tax returns Expenditure and turnover diffusion indices Reporting behaviour Highways England Road traffic counts Average speeds All-England and English ports by vehicle length Marine and Coastguard Agency Automated Information System ship tracking data UK ports Port traffic and time in port
VAT is a good indicator of large change See last recession 5 months before official statistics port traffic growth rate / % Road traffic counts reflect wider economy and road haulage for granular geographies Shipping port traffic indicates UK import / export health Activity at individual ports can be linked to specific industries
FASTER March 18 methods, data to end Dec 2018 April 15 - first timely updates INDICATORS OF UK ECONOMIC ACTIVITY WHAT NEXT? Suggestions ? web: www.ons.gov.uk/datasciencecampus email: datasciencecampus@ons.gov.uk Twitter: @DataSciCampus
