Recent Economic and Social Conditions in Africa - Key Insights

Growth is rebounding in most African countries, though fiscal deficits remain high. Monetary policy varies as inflation persists. Trade performance is improving, painting a positive growth outlook despite challenges. Explore detailed data on GDP growth, fiscal deficits, inflation rates, and more in different African sub-regions.

• Africa
• Economic Conditions
• Social Conditions
• GDP Growth
• Fiscal Deficits

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1. OVERVIEW OF RECENT ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL CONDITIONS IN AFRICA Adam El-Hiraika Director, Macroeconomic Policy Division 11 - 15 May 2018 Addis Ababa, Ethiopia 2018 Conference of Ministers 1

2. Key messages 2 Growth is recovering in most African countries; Fiscal and current account deficits remain stable but high; Varying monetary policy stance, as inflation remains high; Africa s trade performance rebounds though low; Positive growth outlook despite headwinds; Title of the presentation goes here | Sub-Title goes here Overview of recent economic and social conditions in Africa UNECA.ORG 2

3. Growth rebounds in 2017 3 Thanks improved domestic conditions macroeconomic environment; to 7 6.1 6.1 6.0 5.8 6 and 5 4.5 4 Real GDP Growth (%) 3.1 3 3.3 3.0 1.6 2 2.2 Slow growth in Africa s largest economies has bottomed out. 2.0 1.0 0.9 1 0 -0.6 0.2 -0.9 -1 -2 2014 2015 2016 2017e Africa (excluding Libya) East and South Asia Latin America and the Caribbean South-Eastern Europe Overview of recent economic and social conditions in Africa UNECA.ORG 3

4. Growth recovered in sub-regions 4 Growth by sub-region 8.0 7 6.7 7.0 With East Africa leading the sub- regions. 6.1 6.0 5.5 5.7 5.0 4.8 Real GDP growth (%) 4.4 4.0 3.8 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.0 2.6 2.8 3.2 2.2 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.4 1.7 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 -0.1 2014 2015 2016 2017e -1.0 -1 -2.0 Africa North Africa East Africa Central Africa West Africa Southern Africa Overview of recent economic and social conditions in Africa UNECA.ORG 4

5. Narrowing fiscal deficit though high 5 2015 2016 2017e 2018f 0 Due to fiscal consolidation; -2 (3.2) (3.3) (4.0) (4.1) (4.1) -4 Budget Balance (% GDP) (4.8) (5.1) (4.3) Demonstrating continued commitment to sound macroeconomic management (4.2) (4.4) (6.0) (5.0) (5.7) (5.3) -6 (7.4) (6.1) (8.7) -8 (7.9) (8.3) -10 (9.6) (11.3) -12 (11.6) -14 (13.5) (15.7) Though exerting pressure through rising public debt levels in some countries -16 -18 Africa North Africa East Africa Southern Africa West Africa Central Africa Overview of recent economic and social conditions in Africa UNECA.ORG 5

6. Varying monetary policy measures 6 With some countries reducing interest rates to enhance demand and growth; Inflation by Africa's Subregion (%) 20.0 18.0 17.6 16.0 15.4 14.3 14.0 13.2 12.5 13.0 While others increased their interest rates to curb inflation; 12.0 Per cent (%) 11.3 11.3 10.0 9.5 9.4 8.3 8.3 7.9 8.0 7.8 7.3 7.0 6.0 5.9 6.0 6.0 6.0 4.0 3.3 2.9 2.6 2.2 However, inflation remains high due to increasing oil prices & devaluations. 2.0 0.0 2015 2016 2017 2018 Africa North Africa East Africa Central Africa West Africa Southern Africa Overview of recent economic and social conditions in Africa UNECA.ORG 6

7. Improved trade performance 7 Due to the recovery in the global economy; Merchandise exports by region, 2012 2016 ($ billion) 20,000 With increased exports and reduced imports. 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 The AfCFTA is expected to play a critical role in Africa s trade performance. 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Africa America Asia Europe World Overview of recent economic and social conditions in Africa UNECA.ORG 7

8. Declining poverty rates amid high inequality 8 Poverty headcount ratio declined from 55.6 per cent in 2002 to 41 per cent in 2013; Low poverty reduction pace; Inequality is partly driven by structural features. Overview of recent economic and social conditions in Africa UNECA.ORG 8

9. Progress made in both education and health 9 Access inequities for women, rural dwellers and low-income groups; Public expenditures (as % of GDP) equivalent to OECD levels; But minimal effect on education and health outcomes in Africa. Overview of recent economic and social conditions in Africa UNECA.ORG 9

10. Positive medium-term growth prospects 10 Growth is expected to reach 3.6% in 2018 and 3.8% in 2019 Negative effects of developments in advanced and emerging economies. Weather-related shocks remain a regional risk. Security or political uncertainties pose risks to Africa s outlook. Overview of recent economic and social conditions in Africa UNECA.ORG 10

11. Conclusions and policy implications 11 Focus should be on medium and long-term strategies; Fiscal policy remains a critical tool for growth and stability; Enhancing domestic resource mobilization to achieve the SDGs; Consolidating peace and security remain critical. Overview of recent economic and social conditions in Africa UNECA.ORG 11

12. THANK YOU! Follow the conversation: #COM2018 More: www.uneca.org/cfm2018 12