Reference Points and Harvest Analysis
Explore the FMSY values and harvest analysis for various salmon populations, including Rogue River Fall Chinook and Klamath River Fall Chinook. Learn about the estimation methods for FMSY, SMSY, SMAX, and more to inform conservation objectives.
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Presentation Transcript
SRFC conservation objective and reference points next steps Part 2: Exploitation Will Satterthwaite Will.Satterthwaite@noaa.gov SRFC WG meeting June 25, 2024
FMSY current bar for BSIA: PFMC/NMFS 2011 Appendix C More recent work ODFW (2014) estimated FMSY=0.54 for Rogue River Fall Chinook, endorsed by STT and SSC KRFC WG (2024) fit updated spawner-recruit analysis for Klamath River Fall Chinook alpha=4.7 implies FMSY=0.61 Other examples might turn up in literature review Updated set of representative S-R relationships could inform SMSY/SMAXratio calculation suggested by STT
For brood years prior to late 1970s, lack of CWT data means harvest assumptions lack empirical support, and these pre-date a regime shift Siuslaw, Columbia River Bright, North Lewis River on the edge of majority of data pre/post More recent analysis available for Klamath River
Brood Years 1980- 2004 Stock Rogue River Fall Chinook Citation alpha beta ODFW 20143.93* at mean flow and survival SMSY SMAX 64,103 RMSYRMAX 80,343 or ? YMSY 44,688 or ? YMAX 28,575 or ? FMSY 0.56 or 0.54 SMSY/SMAXRMSY/RMAXYMAX/YMSY 0.56 or 0.55 ? 0.90 0.77 0.0000156 35,655 92,677 0.87 or 0.64 or or ? or 34,992 ? KRFC WG 2024 0.0000274 22,221 36,496 56,812 63,103 34,591 26,6070.61 0.61 Klamath River Fall Chinook 2001- 2017 4.70 or 25,300 CTC 1999 8.5987 0.000062 12,14616,129 49,183 51,021 37,038 34,8920.75 0.75 Columbia Upriver Summer Chinook Siletz River Fall Chinook Siuslaw River Fall Chinook Deschutes River Fall Chinook 1979- 1995 0.96 0.94 CTC 1999 0.000273 15,984 16,305 13,004 12,6420.81 0.81 1973- 1991 1965- 1991 1977- 1998 12.10 2,980 3,663 0.98 0.97 0.90 0.79 0.91 0.79 CTC 1999 0.000044 14,02422,727 36,621 40,467 22,597 17,7390.62 0.62 4.840 Sharma et al. 2010 (pers comm.) 0.0001357 4,553 7,372 11,908 13,153 7,354 5,7810.62 0.62 4.85
FMSY SMSY/SMAXRMSY/RMAXYMAX/YMSY Mean 0.66 0.66 0.92 0.82 Median 0.62 0.62 0.91 0.79
