Regional Solar Capacity Contribution Analysis for Resource Adequacy
This analysis delves into the capacity contributions of regional solar energy sources, outlining current and planned units, capacity distributions by region and season, and the impacts on summer reserve margins. Explore the maps, current and projected capacities, and summer/winter capacity contributions for further insights.
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Presentation Transcript
Initial Analysis on Regional Solar Capacity Contributions Supply Analysis Working Group Connor Anderson Resource Adequacy May 18, 2021
Outline Region maps Current and planned units by region Capacity contributions by region and season Effects on summer reserve margins Next steps 2 PUBLIC
Region Maps Option 1: Two regions Option 2: Three regions Region definitions based on CDR zones except for Option 2 Far West region Non-West is every CDR zone except for West and Panhandle West is West and Panhandle CDR zones Far West in Option 2 is a subset of the West CDR zone 3 PUBLIC
Three-Region Current and Planned Capacities Regional Split of Solar Fleet (CDR-eligible as of May 2021) 30,000 19% 25,000 21% 20,000 26% Capacity (MW) 21% 15,000 10,000 41% 56% 57% 25% 5,000 72% 35% 8% 20% 0 Current (May 2021) End of 2021 End of 2022 End of 2023 Non-West West Far West Non-West (MW) West (MW) Far West (MW) 323 4,083 13,738 15,693 813 2,911 5,079 7,248 2,942 4,791 5,099 5,302 Current (May 2021) End of 2021 End of 2022 End of 2023 4 PUBLIC
Summer and Winter Capacity Contributions Summer 2 Region - Summer Non-West MW 204 204 199 2 Region - Summer 3-yr Capacity-Weighted Capacity Contributions Non-West West System-Wide Year 2020 2019 2018 Non-West % 80% 67% 73% West % 84% 74% 81% West MW 2,238 1,444 1,056 74% 80% 80% 3 Region - Summer 3 Region - Summer 3-yr Capacity-Weighted Capacity Contributions Non-West West Far West Year 2020 2019 2018 Non-West % 80% 67% 73% Non-West MW West % West MW Far West % Far West MW 204 80% 498 204 78% 264 199 76% 208 74% 79% 81% 85% 73% 82% 1,740 1,180 848 Winter 2 Region - Winter Non-West MW 204 204 199 2 Region - Winter 3-yr Capacity-Weighted Capacity Contributions Non-West West System-Wide Year 2020-2021 Non-West % 6% 9% 5% West % 7% 4% 10% West MW 3,378 1,727 1,206 7% 7% 7% 2019-2020 2018-2019 3 Region - Winter 3 Region - Winter Non-West MW 204 204 199 3-yr Capacity-Weighted Capacity Contributions Non-West West Far West West % 8% 4% 16% West MW 668 294 208 Far West MW 2,680 1,433 998 Year Non-West % Far West % 7% 8% 7% 6% 9% 5% 8% 4% 9% 2020-2021 2019-2020 2018-2019 5 PUBLIC
Spring and Fall Capacity Contributions Spring 2 Region - Spring Non-West MW 204 199 199 2 Region - Spring 3-yr Capacity-Weighted Capacity Contributions Non-West West System-Wide Year 2020 2019 2018 Non-West % 75% 46% 77% West % 71% 49% 80% West MW 1,828 1,438 826 66% 65% 65% 3 Region - Spring 3 Region - Spring 3-yr Capacity-Weighted Capacity Contributions Non-West West Far West Year 2020 2019 2018 Non-West % 75% 46% 77% Non-West MW West % West MW Far West % Far West MW 204 75% 294 199 49% 258 199 79% 208 66% 67% 64% 70% 49% 81% 1,534 1,180 618 Fall 2 Region - Fall 2 Region - Fall Non-West MW 204 204 199 3-yr Capacity-Weighted Capacity Contributions Non-West West System-Wide Year 2020 2019 2018 Non-West % 62% 57% 60% West % 75% 65% 59% West MW 3,179 1,444 1,206 60% 69% 68% 3 Region - Fall 3 Region - Fall 3-yr Capacity-Weighted Capacity Contributions Non-West West Far West Year 2020 2019 2018 Non-West % 62% 57% 60% Non-West MW West % West MW Far West % Far West MW 204 75% 498 204 62% 264 199 66% 208 60% 70% 69% 75% 65% 57% 2,681 1,180 997 6 PUBLIC
Summer 2022 Reserve Margin Impact 7 PUBLIC
Summer 2023 Reserve Margin Impact 8 PUBLIC
Conclusions of Initial Analysis Planned solar units are significantly more geographically diverse than operational units Noticeable difference in summer capacity contribution between West and Non-West Little difference between West and Far West Downsides to analysis Capacity contribution calculations are heavily influenced by the current fleet s concentration in Far West Did not look at the possibility of subdividing Non-West rather than West 9 PUBLIC
Next Steps We will receive new solar planning profiles in the near future Using the new profiles, we will: Assign profiles to each CDR-eligible planned unit Redo calculations using this larger, more diverse fleet Look at the effect of subdividing Non-West rather than West (do not want to have more than 3 zones) 10 PUBLIC
